- Environmental Innovation for Sustainable Development -

1. Asia-Pacific Environmental Innovation Project (APEIS) - Environmental Innovation for Sustainable Development - Masataka Watanabe: Leader of Integrated Environmental Monitoring Sub-project Mikiko Kainuma: Leader of Integrated Environmental Assessment Sub-project Hideyuki MORI: Leader of Research on Innovative and Strategic Policy Options Sub-project 3 May 2006 NIES

2. Propose Asia-Pacific model ECO ASIA Ministerial Meeting ECO ASIA Panel International Scientific Activities Scientific database and options Policy Guidance International organizations (ADB, UNEP, UNU) Joint project collaboration APN Create linkages and cooperative structures Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) and Other international projects Framework of APEIS WSSD Research on innovative and strategic policy options Sub-projects Integrated Environmental Assessment Integrated Environmental Monitoring

3. Concept / Target • Each sub-project is designed to provide a scientific basis for decision-making and to establish on-going communication between scientists and policy-makers. What has been done. What next steps? • What area these tools could be applied further? • How to expand collaboration? • Database • Monitoring/Modeling tools • Network

4. Sub-Project: Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

5. Integrated Monitoring System • Satellite Observation NetworkEcological Observation Network MODIS high-order products Land surface temperature Land cover / Vegetation indices Fires & biomass burning Leaf area index / FPAR Photosynthesis / NPP • GIS Data • Digital maps • Statistic data • Other remote • sensing date • Ground-truth Measurements • Meteorological data • Hydrological data • Vegetation data • Soil properties data • Ecological Indices • Water deficit index • Aridity • Index of desertification • Index of dust storm • Integrated Model for Assessment of Ecological • Function • Water resources • Carbon cycle • Nutrient cycle • Food Production and Security • Disaster Protection Detection of Ecosystem Vulnerability Contribution to Policy Making for SD

7. (Desert) H: Heat flux LE: Latent heat flux (evaporation rate) (Wheat and corn field)) (paddy field)

8. Estimated water deficit index (EF) and evapotranspiration (ET) of winter wheat field with MODIS remote sending datasets in North China Plain

11. Application to Regional Scale: Carbon Fixation by Vegetation using MODIS Data Measurements GIS Input Layers Climatic Factors Land Use Carbon Fixation ( Mg C ha-1) Before improved Input Input Simulation of CO2 Flux Modeling After improved Validation Scale-up

12. Leaf Area Index (LAI) Vegetation Index (NDVI) Daily Simulation of Carbon Exchange Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE)

14. Sub-Project: Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

15. Objectives of IEA Developing IEA tools to assess innovative options • Diffusing and applying IEA tools for selected Asia-Pacific countries (China, India, Thailand, Korea) • Developing quantitative innovative scenarios using IEA tools • Link with MDG/national goals and Sustainable Development

16. Tools for Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA)

17. What kind of issues IEA Tools can address? (SDB: Strategic DataBase) IEA Tools can address country-specific various environment and development problems

18. How to assess national-level climate change scenarios and MDG targets of linkage among global scenarios-India’s case using AIM/Material & AIM/Energy-

19. 1 5 10 1 5 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 ～ ～ (%) (%) Technogarden 2100 Water Stress Index (ratio between total withdrawal and renewable water resource) 2000 Order from Strength 2100 • Withdrawal: driven by socio-economic factors • Water resource: driven by climate factors • General trend of stress index change can be explained by demand side.

20. Role of renewable energy-Thailand’s case using SDB-

21. Visualization of SO2 Concentration- Air Quality Analysis with AIM/Air - SO2: Concentration contour of 3ppb surface 2001/3/31~4/9 UTC

22. Critical air quality locations in Beijing: transport emissions-China’s case using AIM/Air- Simulation of SO2 concentration caused by traffic emission in Beijing in a winter night

23. Demonstration: Area: the center of Beijing city; Period: Jan 1st, 2000 ~ Jan 14th, 2000; Time step: 1 hour; Emission source: automobiles; Traffic pattern: hourly change in a day; Meteorology data: ECMWF; Model: Plume or Puff model for a line of point sources (each point source covers emission from automobiles on road within 100m x 100m area)

24. Contributions of APEIS/IEA APEIS session at CAPaBLE workshop (Beijing, Sep 2005) • Capacity building workshop on model development for Asia-Pacific researchers • Transfer of IEA tools to selected Asia-Pacific countries • Contributions to international projects: • MA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) • IPCC AR4 • UNEP/GEO3 & GEO4 • UNEP[RISO]/Development and Climate Project • UNEP/SEFII: Great Mekong Project • EMF (Energy Modeling Forum) • CAPaBLE project UNEP/SEF II workshop (Hanoi, Jan 2005)

25. Sub-Project: Research on Innovative and Strategic Policy Options (RISPO) II Research on the Promotion of Sustainable Development in the Context of Regional Economic Integration: Strategies for Environmental Sustainability and Poverty Reduction Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

26. Implementation scheme • Implemented in conjunction with a partnership project under the United Nations Environment Programme/Network of Institutions for Sustainable Development (UNEP-NISD) • Collaboration with research institutes from six countries in East Asia (China, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam)

27. Overview of RISPO-II • What is considered: • East-Asian economic integration will have significant effects on the environment, poverty and sustainable development in the region. • Increasing the degree of openness without the appropriate environmental policies may exacerbate environmental degradation. • Objective To provide research-based policy options useful for environmental policies within the context of East Asian economic integration. • Geographical focus: ASEAN (10 countries) + 3 (China, Japan, Korea). 6 countries (China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) have been selected for case studies. • 3 year project: April 2005–March 2008

28. Research approach Modelling Analysis Economy-wide policy impact assessment using the modifiedGTAP model and other tools Scenario Approach Accommodate uncertainty in economic integration in East Asia with three scenarios (Shallow, Moderate, Deep) Integrated Policy Assessment Examines the economic, social and environmental implications of policy options, by synthesising the results of both economy-wide and sector/issue specific policy assessments. Policy Analysis Deeper analysis of sector/issue specific policies using a range of tools for institutional and policy impact assessment

29. Expected outcome: Strategic Environmental Policy Options Policy-makers have to make decisions to prevent environmental damages caused by economic activities before damages will happen. Scenario analysis is essential to have insights what is going to happen. The development of policy responses that consider trade-offs and principles for policy choices is necessary Scenario-specific policy packages could be provided with their assessment results.Strategic Environmental Policy OptionsThese options will assist policy-makers in developingtheir “sustainable development policies” with aligning development and environmental risk.

30. Thank you for your attention! URL: http://www.ecoasia.org/APEIS E-mail: APEIS@env.go.jp IEM: http://www-basin.nies.go.jp/english/project/iem/index.html IEA: http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/apeis/ RISPO: http://www.iges.or.jp/en/ltp/activity_rispo2.html E-mail: rispo2@iges.or.jp

32. 200 200 Management options Management options 35 35 1.0 1.0 Manage Manage - - can reduce leakage can reduce leakage 150 150 30 30 ment ment of of water supply, water supply, .&/year) .&/year) 0.8 0.8 options options 25 25 household connection household connection (million m3/yr) (million m3/yr) Water supply by Water supply by 100 100 Bil Bil 0.6 0.6 20 20 Relative risk of diarrhea mortality Relative risk of diarrhea mortality 50 50 15 15 0.4 0.4 Annual cost ( Annual cost ( 10 10 0 0 0.2 0.2 5 5 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 Year Year 0 0 0.0 0.0 20 20 Manage Manage - - and reduce the cost. and reduce the cost. 2000 2000 2015 2015 2025 2025 2000 2000 2015 2015 2025 2025 ment ment 15 15 options options Annual cost for HC Conventional Advanced Conventional Advanced (billion$/yr) (billion$/yr) Annual cost for HC* 10 10 Technologies Technologies Technologies Technologies 5 5 35 35 1.0 1.0 Household connection Household connection Public standpoint Public standpoint 30 30 0.8 0.8 25 25 0 0 0.6 0.6 Relative risk of diarrhea mortality Relative risk of diarrhea mortality 20 20 Well/Pond/Borehole Well/Pond/Borehole Rainwater Rainwater 15 15 0.4 0.4 10 10 0.2 0.2 2000 2000 2015 2015 2025 2025 Sewer connection Sewer connection Septic tank Septic tank 5 5 0 0 0.0 0.0 2000 2000 2015 2015 2025 2025 2000 2000 2015 2015 2025 2025 VIP/Simple pit latrine VIP/Simple pit latrine Diarreha Diarreha Assessment of Safe Water/Sanitation Technologies and Management Options - India’s case using SDB - *HC: Household Connection

33. Assessment of Air Pollution and Health Impact - China’s case using AIM/Material -

34. Messages from IEA-Integrated Environmental Assessment- • IEA tools are designed to assess policies to achieve MDG & national targets. • Technology and institution innovations are key to address environment and development trade-offs.

35. Messages from IEA-Integrated Environmental Assessment- • Quantitative assessment can provide information and insights for making innovative choices delivering co-benefits • IEA tools link science and policy and improve effectiveness of policy-making. Further Information: http://www.ecoasia.org/APEIS/iea/ http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.htm

36. Overview of RISPO-II • Hypothesis • East-Asian economic integration will have significant effects on the environment, poverty and sustainable development in the region. • Increasing the degree of openness without the appropriate environmental policies may exacerbate environmental degradation. • Objective To provide research-based policy options that will be useful contributions to the development of environmental policies by decision-makers, within the context of East Asian economic integration. • Geographical focus: ASEAN (10 countries) + 3 (China, Japan, Korea). 6 countries (China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) have been selected for case studies. • 3 year project: April 2005–March 2008

37. Assess environmental Most existing studies on trade impacts of trade policies and environment Some studies include this, Develop environmental without taking into account policy packages dealing with economy-wide impact of the environmental impacts proposed policies Assess economic, social and Innovative apporoach, environmental outcomes which is necessary for (impacts) of implementing sustainable development policy packages, and feed back to policy development Research Innovation

38. Primary outcomes Outcomes of Policy Analysis • Sector/issue specific policy packages with a wide variety of policies • Policy impact assessment of the policy packages • Institutional assessment results addressing implementability of the policy packages Outcomes of Modelling Analysis • Economy-wide policy packages with a limited range of policies • Environmental, social and economic indicators for each country, such as CO2 emission, BOD discharge, national GDP, unemployment rate, and the poverty ratio • Evaluation results of economy-wide policy packages based on policy targets, such as CO2 emission reduction and non-declining GDP

39. Critical air quality locations in Beijing: transport emissions-China’s case using AIM/Air- Simulation of SO2 concentration caused by traffic emission in Beijing in a winter night

40. Deposition of SO42- in July (kg/hectare/month)