CANARI/PANOS Commonwealth Foundation Georgetown, Guyana, 2 nd to 5 th October, 2007.

1. Global Climate Change,Vulnerability and Resilienceprepared byLeslie WallingSenior Technical OfficerCaribbean Natural Resources Institute(CANARI)for the CANARI/PANOS Commonwealth Foundation Georgetown, Guyana, 2nd to 5th October, 2007.

2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE • CANARI • What is Climate Change • Observed Climatic Trends & Global Climate Change (GCC) projections • Implications of GCC for the Caribbean • Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Caribbean

3. CANARI • An independent regional technical non-profit organisation registered in St Croix, Saint Lucia and Trinidad & Tobago; • Operating in the region for over 20 years; • Internal governance structure based on a Partnership between Board members (Elected Partners) and senior staff (Staff Partners); • Capacity enhanced by the use of Associates

4. CANARI Mission • To promote equitable participation and effective collaboration in managing the natural resources critical to development. • CANARI seeks to achieve its mission through: • applied and action research on, and analysis, monitoring and evaluation of, innovative policies, institutions and approaches to participation and governance; • sharing and dissemination of lessons learned, including capacity building; and • fostering partnerships, particularly those that build on regional assets and talents and contribute to closer regional cooperation.

5. What is Climate?

6. What is Climate? • The Average Expected Meteorological Conditions. • Over a Specified Period of time (30 years) • strong ocean influence • High temperatures around ~ 25ºC average • Diurnal seasonal temp variation low: ~ 5ºC • Strongly affected by tropical storms. Leslie Walling

8. What is Global Climate Change

9. The Green House Effect Greenhouses are structures designed to retain heat. The heat-trapping ability of a greenhouse is influenced by a number of factors including the transparency of the greenhouse cover, colour of the surfaces inside the greenhouse, and type of surfaces inside. Leslie Walling

10. The Green House Effect Leslie Walling

11. The atmosphere’s energy budget is determined by net heat flow Outgoing Heat Energy Reflected Energy ~31% Incoming Solar Energy Energy Trapped By Greenhouse Gases • CO2 0.028% • CH4 0.0007% • N2O 0.0003% Leslie Walling

12. The Green House Effect The earth's "greenhouse effect" is what makes this planet suitable for life as we know it. Leslie Walling

13. Primary Contributors to the Natural Greenhouse Effect ~10% ~25% ~65% Leslie Walling

14. How Will Our Climate Change? • 1990’s warmest decade; 1998 warmest year on record since 1861 • Over last century temperature rise of 0.6±0.2°C; Projected increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C over period 1990 to 2100 • Global sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 metres. Without precedent during last 10,000 years, sea level projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 metres • Projected rate of warming greater than observed changes in 20th Century Leslie Walling

15. Observed Temperature Trends • Climate Studies Group Mona (CSGM) • 1950s to 2000 • Evidence that temperatures have been changing

16. Projected Temperature Trends • Temperature scenarios • Statistical downscaling • HadCM3 GCM/SERS A2 • Rising temp trend: Trinidad and Tobago & Jamaica

17. Sea Surface Temp. Increase

18. Projected Precipitation Trends • Simulated decreases up to the middle of the century in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles in the late rainfall season, but… • not in the more southern Caribbean islands.

19. Observed Sea Level Rise • Church et al, 2004: J. Clim., 17, 2609-2625 • Analysis of satellite altimeter data combined with historical tide gauge over the period 1950– 2000. • The best estimate of the rate of global averaged sea level rise was 1.8 ± 0.3 mm per yearor 0.18m per 100year. • The rise in the Caribbean appears to be near the mean. • 1.8 ± 0.3 mm per yearor 0.18m per 100year.

20. Projected Sea Level Rise • Although the rate of rise is neither constant or uniform, sea level in the Caribbean region is expected to rise by as much as 5 mm/yr, for next 100 yrs, as a result of GHG-induced global warming. Leslie Walling

21. Observed Hurricane trends- North Atlantic Hurricanes • Webster et al., 2005: Science, 309: 1844-1846 • an increasing trend in the frequency and duration of North Atlantic hurricane season significant at the 99% confidence level.

22. 20 Km Japanese model:

23. Conclusions about projected climate change for Caribbean region: • Sea levels around the islands of the Caribbean Sea will probably continue to rise. • All Caribbean islands are very likely to warm during this century. The warming is likely to be somewhat smaller than the global, annual mean warming in all seasons. • Rainfall in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles is likely to decrease in J-J-A but changes elsewhere and in D-J-F are uncertain.

24. Climate Change Impacts

25. Conclusions about projected climate change for Caribbean region: • Sea levels around the islands of the Caribbean Sea will probably continue to rise. • All Caribbean islands are very likely to warm during this century. The warming is likely to be somewhat smaller than the global, annual mean warming in all seasons. • Rainfall in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles is likely to decrease in J-J-A but changes elsewhere and in D-J-F are uncertain.

26. Implications of GCC for the Caribbean • sea-level rise: • Increased coastal flooding & storm surges • Increased coastal erosion • Salt water intrusion • deterioration in coastal conditions: • erosion of beaches • coral bleaching, • fisheries • value of these destinations for tourism. • reduce water resources: • unable to meet demand during low rainfall periods • human health • Agriculture • Industry • education

27. Implications for the Caribbean • Increased hurricane intensity: • Injury and loss of life • Economic disruption • Livelihoods affected • Damage to homes and infrastructure • Food insecurity • Increased sanitation and hygiene risks • Changes in range of disease carrying vectors: • E.g. the relationship between Dengue epidemics, temperature, rainfall, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

28. Potential Climate Change Impacts Health Weather-related mortality Infectious diseases Air-quality respiratory illnesses Agriculture Crop yields Irrigation demands Climate Changes Forests Change in forest composition Shift geographic range of forests Forest health and productivity Temperature Precipitation Water Resources Changes in water supply Water quality Increased competition for water Sea Level Rise Coastal Areas Erosion of beaches Inundation of coastal lands Costs to protect coastal communities Species and Natural Areas Shift in ecological zones Loss of habitat and species

29. Consequences of Climate Change for the Caribbean Sea-LevelRise: • Some of the consequences will be: • Coastal Land loss, especially on low-lying, exposed coasts, low limestone islands and coastal plains without effective buffers between sea and backshore, e.g. Barbados, Bahamas, Antigua, Grenada, Belize, Guyana.  Loss of coastal infrastructure: roads, utilities, residential and tourist accommodation, social services, etc. Leslie Walling

30. Consequences of Climate Change for the Caribbean AcceleratedBeachErosion  Higher Water Levels + Higher Wave Amplitude = Increased Wave Energy  Recent coastal vulnerability assessments for Barbados, Guyana and Grenada clearly demonstrate that elevated sea level amplifies the rate of coastal erosion.  In Trinidad some beaches are retreating by as much as 2.0 m yr-1, where sea level has been rising at rate of 8-10 mm yr-1, during the past 15 years. Leslie Walling

31. A Barbados Scenario Assumptions: 1. 1:50 year event, i.e. a category 3 hurricane. 2. Passage coincides with high tide and centre passes directly over island. • SLR of 40.0 mm relative to 1992 MSL. Result? Initial projection showed that under the above scenario, uprush from a 2- metre wave would travel at least 80-100 m inland. Leslie Walling

32. Consequences of Climate Change for the Caribbean StormSurge,FloodRisksandInundation: • Flood risks and inundation from storm surge will be more severe. Even small increases in relative sea level will have a disproportionate effect on flood levels. By 2080, numbers facing severe floods in the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Ocean regions would be 200 times higher than if there were no SLR. Cuba: 98 coastal settlements with a total population exceeding 50 000 persons, which would be completely inundated by a 1.0 m rise in sea-level. Leslie Walling

33. Habitat becomes less favourable +1°C Yellow tuna Thunnus albacares Leslie Walling

34. Habitat becomes less favourable +1°C Dolphin fish Coryphaena hippurus Leslie Walling

35. Habitat becomes less favourable +1°C Yellow tail Ocyurus chrysurus Leslie Walling

36. Consequences of Climate Change for the Caribbean Tourism • In B’dos, 95% of tourism infrastructure is within 0.5. km of the coast. • SLR will disrupt the sector through accelerated coastal erosion and beach loss, and likely damage to physical plant and vital infrastructure. • the loss of corals and other marine flora and fauna, which support passive, income-generating recreation, e.g. the scuba diving industry. • Mild temperate winters: reduced appeal of islands as tourist destinations. Leslie Walling

37. Consequences of Climate Change for the Caribbean Human Health & Well-being ►Caribbean countries, as elsewhere, exposed to various climate-sensitive diseases - vector and non-vector-borne, e.g. dengue, malaria, yellow fever. ►Short- and long-term threats to human health: ◘ Hurricanes (death and injury; increased sanitation and hygiene risks); ◘ Storm surges (physical injury); ◘ Flooding (drowning; creation of conditions conducive to breeding of insects and other vectors); ◘ Drought (water scarcity; reduced agricultural and food production – risk of malnutrition) . ► Leslie Walling

38. What is Vulnerability

39. Baseline Vulnerability • small physical size; • Small populations • limited natural resources; • extreme openness and high sensitivity to external shocks; • high propensity to natural disasters and other extreme events; • high population density; • poorly developed infrastructure; and • limited funds, human resources and skills, among others. WE ARE VULNERABLE ALREADY! Leslie Walling

40. Climate Change RISK • Hazard = Global Climate Change • Probability or frequency = Unavoidable: • Harmful consequences or expected losses: • of lives, • people, • injured, • property, • livelihoods, • economic activity disrupted or • environment damage

41. Risk and Vulnerability RISK: • Hazard • Risk • Consequences VULNERABILITY: • Exposure • Ability to cope • Hazards translate into risks and consequently disasters only when combined with vulnerable elements • of human, natural and built systems.

42. Exposure

43. Exposure

44. Caribbean Adaptation

45. Adaptation Entry Points for CSOs • For adaptation to GCC to be effective adaptation planning, resilience building, and vulnerability reduction, and capacity building must take place at all levels • Adaptation planning and capacity building has focused on the government institutions and agencies, research CSOs • Recent focus on vulnerability assessment of economic sectors (tourism, water, agriculture) • Capacity building, awareness, & education for adaptation & adaptation planning are required at the community level • Local level adaptation planning with the participation of individuals, communities, and stakeholder groups.

46. Adaptation Entry Points for CSOs: Recommendations for Future Action DISASTER RISK REDUCTION: front end preparation… • policy and planning; • Policy analysis and research (e.g. political ecology of adaptation) • Stakeholder identification & analysis • Participatory planning processes • Incorporation of traditional knowledge • physical preventative measures; • Adaptive designs & retrofitting • Natural resources conservation • Integrated resources management (INRM) • Incorporation of traditional knowledge • Reforestation, conservation management • physical coping and/or adaptive measures; and • Vulnerability and risk assessment studies • Participatory contingency planning • Participatory hazard mapping & resilience development • community capacity building • Community level adaptation planning • Crop diversification • Conflict management & negotiation • Participatory planning • INRM

47. Adaptation Entry Points for CSOs: Recommendations for Future Action • Economic capabilities –the ability to earn an income, to consume and to have assets • Community and sectoral risk reduction and resilience building • Livelihoods diversification • Crop diversification • Sharing of traditional knowledge & best practices • Human capabilities –based on health, education, nutrition, clean water and shelter • Research • Awareness building and education on Integrated Natural Resources Management, adaptation planning vulnerability reduction and resilience building • Capacity development in planning and participatory processes • Political capabilities –human rights, a voice and some influence over public policies • Capacity development • Participatory planning processes • Awareness building & education • Participation in resource allocation decision-making (land use planning & food security) • Advocacy (land use planning & food security) • Socio-cultural capabilities – the ability to participate as a valued member of a community • Capacity development • Participatory planning processes • Awareness building & education • Protective capabilities –enable people to withstand economic and external shocks - The DAC guidelines on poverty reduction (OECD 2001)

48. Caribbean Adaptation: Recommendations for Future Action • Research and documentation on examples of community adaptation in post-disaster circumstances. • The impact of global climate change on sustainable livelihoods strategies and options. • Research on the process of building consensus to climate change adaptation project and policy options.

49. Caribbean Adaptation: Recommendations for Future Action • The development of community-level adaptation planning processes and best-practices that are context specific. • The development of the tools and methods that create opportunities for participation and support the building of consensus that include …

50. Caribbean Adaptation: Recommendations for Future Action • rigorous stakeholder identification and analysis; • analysis of the institutional framework including the opportunities for participation offered by existing policy, legislation and practice; • resource and livelihood assessments; • participatory problem analysis and building consensus on strategies for addressing the problems; • participatory mapping as a tool for both planning and assessment/evaluation. • conflict management, including the negotiation of trade-offs • capacity assessments and capacity building in all of the above.