The New Nuclear Danger and What You Can Do About It

1. The New Nuclear Danger and What You Can Do About It Thomas B. Newman, MD, MPH Professor of Epidemiology & Biostatistics and Pediatrics, UCSF NukesForDPH25Nov05

2. Why I am doing this • I am scared • “Leave it to the experts, they know what they are doing” is not an intellectually, morally or historically defensible h have skills and a duty to anticipate and address threats to public health • I want your help • If not now, when?

3. Take Home Messages • 2 quotes • A few images • 2 big numbers • Some discomfort • 2 article VI’s • 2 approaches

4. Outline/Menu • Background • History (Quote #1) • Physics, what nukes do (Images) • Stockpiles of weapons and materials (2 big numbers) • The New Danger (Discomfort) • Nuclear Terrorism • Loose Fissile Material • Nuclear Proliferation • Two Approaches • Bush administration • PSR “SMART SECURITY” (2 Article VI’s)

5. History of Physicians and Nuclear Weapons • Hiroshima, Nagasaki 1945 • 1950s: AMA supports civil defense, fallout shelters • 1962: PSR formed, NEJM articles, LTBT • 1980s: “Victory is Possible,” IPPNW formed, PSR “bombing runs” • 1985: IPPNW wins Nobel Peace Prize; “Nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” – R. Reagan and M. Gorbachev • 1990’s – now: increasing fear of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism Forrow L, Sidel V. Medicine and Nuclear War: From Hiroshima to Mutual Assured Destruction to Abolition 2000. JAMA 1998;280:456-61

6. Quote #1 • “Since the advent of the Nuclear Age, everything has changed save our modes of thinking and we thus drift towards unparalleled catastrophe.” --Albert Einstein

7. Energy in a sugar cube • Old way of thinking chemical energy: • 5 g x 3.4 kcal/g = 17 kcal • Energy for 10 minutes @ 2400 kcal/d • New way of thinking: E= mc2 • 5 g x (3 x 1010 cm/sec)2 = 45 x 1020 ergs = 2.15 x 1010 kcal • Energy for 123,000 years @ 2400 kcal/d • 21 kilotons

8. Explosive yield • 1 kiloton = explosive power of 1000 TONS (2 million pounds) of TNT • Hiroshima bomb 13 kilotons • Oklahoma City bomb: 2.2 tons (.002 kilotons) • 1 megaton = 1000 kilotons • Largest nuclear weapons: 20 megatons

9. Physics, definitions, terminology Fission: splitting big atoms like Uranium and Plutonium Releases huge amount of energy Chain reaction that requires “critical mass” Type of bomb used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki Fusion: joining small atoms (heavy hydrogen) to make helium Releases even more energy Requires lots of energy (fission bomb) to get process started

10. 10 kiloton bomb: Blast effects • 500 MPH wind (20 PSI) @ .4 miles--everything leveled • 160 MPH wind (5 PSI) @ 1 mile -- skeletons of some buildings, 50% fatalities • 1 PSI @ 2.4 miles -- broken windows and injuries to 5-10% http://www.nationalterroralert.com/readyguide/nuclear.htm, http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/effectstable1.html

12. 10 kiloton bomb effects: Thermal effects • Creates a giant firestorm with hurricane-force winds and average air temperatures above boiling. • A firestorm would cremate or suffocate people in heavily protected shelters. • Wood, cardboard ignite .8 miles away • Third degree burns covering 50% of body 1.2 miles away http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/index.html

13. Radiation Effects • Acute Effects: Bone marrow most affected (bleeding, infections, etc.), then GI tract (nausea, vomiting, diarrhea) • 50% fatality @ 0.8 miles

14. Effects of radiation “Fall out” -- radioactive dust from the blast crater goes into the mushroom cloud and lands downwind Chronic Effects: Cancer, scarring of lungs, thyroid diseases, cataracts, birth defects, genetic damage

15. Existing weapons

16. Dot Chart (2001) 8 dots = 1 trident submarine 1 dot = 3 megatons = Total explosive power from WW II, including Hiroshima and Nagasaki Total: 11,425 megatons = almost 2 tons of TNT per person on the planet BIG NUMBER 1 *http://www.tridentploughshares.org/hb3/part10.php

17. The New Danger • Nuclear terrorism • Loose fissile material • Nuclear proliferation

18. Americans, think

19. “We have the right to kill 4 million Americans” • “The Americans have still not tasted from our hands what we have tasted from theirs. The [number] killed in the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were no more than fair exchange for the ones killed in the Al-'Amiriya shelter in Iraq, and are but a tiny part of the exchange for those killed in Palestine, Somalia, Sudan, the Philippines, Bosnia, Kashmir, Chechnya, and Afghanistan... We have the right to kill 4 million Americans - 2 million of them children... --Suleiman Abu Gheith, Al-Qa’ida Spokesman

20. Aum Shinrikyo • “Supreme Truth” – religious cult founded by Shoko Asahara • Peak 9000 members, 1400 monks Japan alone • Tons of chemicals stockpiled for weapons • 1995 Sarin attack on a Tokyo subway killed 12 and sent 5000 to hospitals • Sought to obtain uranium for nuclear weapons

21. Apocalyptic Visions • Massive destruction in the service of various visions of purification and renewal* • Common to most religions, extreme ideological movements like Communism and Fascism, Timothy McVeigh, David Koresh, Aum Shinrikyo *Robert Jay Lifton. The Superpower Syndrome: America’s Apocalyptic Confrontation with the World. NY: Thunder’s Mouth Press, 2003

22. Fissile Material: key ingredient for nuclear bombs Highly enriched uranium or plutonium Relatively simple to make it come together as a critical mass

23. HEU- Highly Enriched Uranium • Highly enriched means enriched in U-235, the isotope capable of fission • At least 20% U-235 needed to sustain a nuclear reaction • Critical mass = 35 pounds • World stockpile (end of 2003) ~1900 metric tons* *Albright D, Kramer K. Fissile Material: Stockpiles still growing. Bull Atomic Sci 2004;Nov/Dec:14-15

24. Plutonium • Made in nuclear reactors when U-238 absorbs a neutron • Obtained by reprocessing spent fuel rods with nitric acid • Critical mass = 9 -33 pounds (depends on reflector) • World stockpile (end of 2003) ~1855 Metric Tons* *Albright D, Kramer K. Fissile Material: Stockpiles still growing. Bull Atomic Sci 2004;Nov/Dec:14-15

25. Total Fissile material: 3750 Metric Tons • Enough for more than 300,000 Hiroshima-sized bombs • If it is 99.99% secure, that leaves enough for 30 Hiroshima-sized bombs BIG NUMBER #2

26. Challenges of securing fissile material* • Amount of Plutonium estimated based on ratio of Uranium to Plutonium in a sample • MUF = Material Unaccounted For • “The cumulative MUF... was in excess of 400 kg plutonium. Such a value is a cause for concern...”** *IPPNW, 1996: Crude nuclear weapons proliferation and the terrorist threat. Avail at http://www.ippnw.org/IPPNWBooks.html#Crude; **http://www.dnfsb.gov/pub_docs/hanford/sir_19931213_hd.txt

27. Where is it? • Most HEU is in military stocks but... • 20 tons HEU (enough for 400 bombs) in 130 research reactors in 40 countries “some of it secured by nothing more than an underpaid guard sitting inside a chain link fence.”* • Most plutonium is in civilian stocks *Nunn, S. Quoted in Allison G. Nuclear Terrorism, p.67

28. Safeguarding Fissile Materials • 1992 Russia: employee steals 50 g HEU at a time; accumulates 1.5 kg. Caught by chance. • 1996 Kazakhstan: 205 kg of HEU “turns up” in 1996, 1 year after they thought all had been given to Russia • 2001 Istanbul: smugglers caught trying to sell 1 kg HEU for $750,000

29. Nuclear Proliferation • Vertical: same countries, more or more threatening weapons • Horizontal: more countries • Original 5 Nuclear Weapons states: USA, USSR (Russia), England, France, China • Brazil and South Africa abandoned their programs • Israel • India, Pakistan, 1998 • North Korea • ?Iran

30. Current administration approach • U.S. dominant; unilateral • Emphasis on military solutions • Build new nuclear weapons and threaten to use them

31. Quotes • “Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.” --GWB, 9/20/01 (www.whitehouse.gov/news/ releases/2001/09/20010920-8.html) • "America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our people.” --GWB, State of the Union, 1/20/04 • “I don’t do carrots.” –John Bolton

32. New Nuclear Policies The Embrace of Nuclear Weapons

33. Current Situation US Nuclear Posture Review -1 • 2002 report on the goals and structure of US nuclear forces. • Goal to reduce from 6000 to ~2000 “operationally deployed” nuclear weapons by 2012 • “Smallest stockpile consistent with national security” • Excess weapons not destroyed

34. Current Situation J.D. Crouch, Assistant Secretary of Defense The U.S. is “currently projecting to keep the nuclear forces that we have to 2020 and beyond.” “Special Briefing on the Nuclear Posture Review,” US Department of Defense, January 9, 2002.

35. Current Situation US Nuclear Posture Review -2 • Offensive strike systems, may include new, lower yield, “usable” weapons • Nuclear weapons may be used after biological or chemical attacks • Non-nuclear states targeted

36. “In setting requirements for nuclear strike capabilities…North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Libya are among the countries that could be involved in immediate, potential or unexpected contingencies.” Nuclear Posture Review

37. On the need for more “usable” nuclear weapons • “The only thing we have is very large, very dirty, big nuclear weapons. It seems to me studying it [the RNEP] makes all the sense in the world.” -Donald Rumsfeld Pincus, W: Pentagon Revises Nuclear Strike Plan. Strategy Includes Preemptive Use Against Banned Weapons. Washington Post, 9/11/05 A01

38. “We have more nuclear weapons now than we know what to do with…I’m concerned about our image in the world when we’re telling others not to build these things, and then we push these new weapons.” Representative David Hobson (R-Ohio)

39. Salt Lake City Tribune “If the United States, which commands the most powerful conventional and nuclear arsenal on Earth, continues to develop new nuclear weapons, other nations can hardly be faulted for deciding that they need nuclear weapons also, if only to deter the United States.” -Salt Lake City Tribune-June 6, 2003

40. FY ’06 Budget Request • Missile defense: $8.8 billion • Shorten time for nuclear testing: $25 million • Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator: $8.5 million • Modern Pit Facility to make 450 plutonium pits/year (nuclear weapon triggers): $7.7 million

41. Smart Security Brochure

42. The PSR Platform for SMART Security • Strengthen international institutions and support the rule of law • Renounce the development of new nuclear weapons and strengthen international disarmament treaties • Change budget priorities to reflect real security needs Endorsed by the National Council of Churches (100,000 congregations with 45 million members)

43. The Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty • Both nuclear and non-nuclear states agree to cooperate to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons • Non-nuclear states agree to forgo their development • In return: • Nuclear states agree to make good-faith efforts toward complete nuclear disarmament • Nuclear power to be available to all • Signed by U.S. 1968, ratified 1969 (ARTICLE VI) http://disarmament.un.org:8080/TreatyStatus.nsf

44. NPT Article VI • “Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.”

45. What does if mean if a treaty is ratified? • “This Constitution... and all treaties made, or which shall be made, under the authority of the United States, shall be the supreme law of the land; and the judges in every state shall be bound thereby... • “The Senators and Representatives...and the members of the several state legislatures, and all executive and judicial officers, both of the United States and of the several states, shall be bound by oath or affirmation, to support this Constitution...” --Article VI, U.S. Constitution

46. RE: Article VI of the NPT and the failed NPT conference: "If governments simply ignore or discard commitments whenever they prove inconvenient, we will never be able to build an edifice of international cooperation." -- Paul Meyer, Canadian Representative to the 2005 NPT conference. Quoted in: Sanger, D. Month of Talks Fails to Bolster Nuclear Treaty. New York Times, May 28, 2005

47. Nuclear Abolition Endorsed by: • American Public Health Association • American Medical Association • American College of Physicians • International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War/Physicians for Social Responsibility • Global political, military and religious leaders

48. Alternative Budget Priorities • International development • Global public health • Alternative energy sources

49. TN’s View, Short version • Nuclear weapons undermine, rather than enhance our security • Even if this were not true, threatening their use is illegal and immoral. They are instruments of genocide • We have banned slavery, chemical and biological weapons • We can and should ban nuclear weapons, too • It’s the law

50. Quote #2: Senator Everett M. Dirksen • “When I feel the heat, I see the light.”