Crisis Management and the Media

1. Crisis Management and the Media Philip M. Taylor Institute of Communications Studies University of Leeds

2. UNCERTAIN FUTURE UNCERTAIN FUTURE The 21st CENTURY ENVIRONMENT? TERRORISM POPULATION GROWTH + RESOURCE SCARCITY = War over Food, Water, Fish Changing ALLIANCES: IMPACT OF THE EURO ECO-ASIA Global Warming +/ Ecological disaster + Creeping Deserts = Virtual States Sub-National Groups: Russian Mafia, FARC, INFORMATION WARFARE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ETHNO- Religious PAN-NATRIONALISM CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS: IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY More GNP = More Defense Spending DISEASE (AIDS PANDEMIC MALARIA, EBOLA) GLOBAL ECONOMICINTERDEPENDENCE ASYMMETRIC WARFARE

3. ‘Information Operations’: the new ‘magic bullet’? • IO doctrine still emerging (US driven) • Embraces notion of a global information ‘space’ in which governments take ‘command and control’ of the information environment, wherever possible • In cyberspace, who (and where) is the enemy? • Ramifications for democracy?

4. International Information – the new US definition “The conscious use of available means to inform foreign audiences regarding U.S. policies and activities for the purpose of convincing those audiences of the legitimacy of the U.S. government position.”

5. International Information Goal: To achieve U.S. national objectives without resorting to force, or act as a force multiplier in the event force is required Three Tools • Public Affairs • Public Diplomacy • Psychological Operations

6. Public Affairs “Those public information and community relations activities directed toward the domestic general public by various elements of the USG, as well as those activities directed to foreign publics, including the media, by official U.S. spokesmen abroad.”

7. Public Affairs • Provides information to intermediaries, i.e. reporters for international media • State Department is lead agency • Intent is to inform, not necessarily persuade • Audience (reporters) is self selecting • Often more “pull” than “push” • Some “spin,” but not viewed by either side as controlled/controllable

8. Public Diplomacy “Governmental activities intended to inform, influence and understand foreign publics. As a complement to traditional diplomacy, public diplomacy is the communication of U.S. interests and values directly to foreign publics, including strategically placed individuals and institutions.”

9. Public Diplomacy • Traditionally targeted elites, but paradigm has shifted • USIA/USIS is lead agency • More “push” than “pull” • WORLDNET TV • VOA, RFE/RL, Radio/TV Marti • Foreign Press Centers, Washington File • Seen by audience as “controlled”

10. Psychological Operations “Activities designed to convey selected information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence the behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups and individuals. The purpose of psychological operations is to induce or reinforce foreign attitudes and behavior favorable to the overall national security interests of the United States.”

11. Psychological Operations • May target friendly, neutral and/or hostile audiences • DoD is lead agency • Coordinated with State, USIA, and CIA • May be undertaken in support of, or independent from other military operations • All “push,” no “pull;” media tailored to target audience

12. Information Age “The current military-technical revolution, as in the case of some earlier periods of major change in military affairs, is part of a broader revolution with political, economic and social dimensions. It is being shaped by profound changes in technology, perhaps most notably in the area of information technology....” William J. Perry, 10/06/94

13. How did we get here?: Main Trends for Military-Media Crisis Management in the Post Cold War Era • From inter-state to intra-state conflict • From military war-fighting to peacekeeping, peace building and peace support • From military-military communications to military-civilian communications • Decline of specialised foreign and defence correspondents • Increased emphasis on ‘real-time’ reporting • From Information Warfare to Information Operations (‘electronic Pearl Harbour’)

14. From inter to intra state conflict • Gulf War (1991) and Kosovo (1999) are the exceptions since the end of a bi-polar world • Somalia, Haiti, Rwanda, Bosnia, East Timor, Sierra Leone, Chechnya etc = the norm • At least from the media (therefore government?) point of view • Sudan? ‘CNN ‘effect’?

15. The changing role of the military • More UN peacekeeping missions now than ever before • Variety of ‘peacekeeping’ operations • Changing world accompanied by RMA • RMA places information and communications at centre of C2W and C4I • Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence and…..? • CNN!

16. Heavily armed social workers? • Operations other than war involve civilians in distraught and complex situations (hence attention to public diplomacy) • Attention to ‘information support’ in the ‘military’ operation is essential • Increased role of Psychological Operations in ‘theatre’ • Increased role of Public Affairs/Public Information in global media environment

17. Role of the International Media • Increasingly competitive, deregulated ‘infotainment’ market • Human Interest stories and the decline of the specialist/rise of the freelancer • Easier to ‘manipulate’ within certain ground rules (Gulf War and Kosovo) • More difficult to control access to communications technologies

18. Back to Information Operations • Knowledge explosion • Computer power up six orders of magnitude by 2025 • Global interconnectivity The developed world is moving to an information based economy---BUT

19. What about the Less Developed World? • 5.7 billion current population will double in our lifetime • 4.5 billion live in poor countries (average per capita GNP about $1K) • 35% of population under age 15 • Population in LDCs up 143% by 2025 • Population under age 15 may exceed 50% in some countries

20. Increasing Urbanization • Half of world population now is urban; two thirds by 2025 • 27 mega-cities (10M+) by 2015, 24 in less developed world • Of 325 cities of 1M+ today, 213 are in less developed world • By 2025, Latin America 85%, Africa 58% and Asia 53% urban

21. Increasing instability, especially in the Developing World • Traditional national sovereignties eroding • Religious, tribal and ethnic conflict spreading • Guerrilla, paramilitary and criminal groups proliferating • Numbers of displaced persons growing

22. So What? • More Complex Humanitarian Crises Are Almost Certain • Traditional infrastructures (administrative, health & sanitation, water, power, etc.) will continue to erode in third world • The global information infrastructure will continue to expand and become more robust • Urban centers in the second and third world will function as communication nodes

23. Information Age • The ability of any central authority to control information flow will diminish • First world policy makers will be increasingly unable to ignore LDC events • Global telecommunications will provide scenes that result in policy shifts and turn military operations into improvisational theater

24. How do you manage those crises? • An integrated information policy (hence IO) • Long-term communication of (‘soft’) power • Short-term but planned PSYOP and PA/PI activity close to the centre of decision-making • Professionalised information activity AND crisis management scenarios • Keep within the democratic tradition: a strength and a weakness