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Horányi, Gabriella Csima , P. Szabó, G. Szépszó ,

EMS/ECAM ANNUAL MEETING, 2009 / Toulouse, 28 September – 2 October , 2009. APPLICATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL MINI-ENSEMBLE FOR THE CARPATHIAN BASIN. Horányi, Gabriella Csima , P. Szabó, G. Szépszó , Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS), Budapest, Hungary

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Horányi, Gabriella Csima , P. Szabó, G. Szépszó ,

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  1. EMS/ECAM ANNUAL MEETING, 2009 / Toulouse, 28 September – 2 October, 2009 APPLICATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL MINI-ENSEMBLE FOR THE CARPATHIAN BASIN • Horányi,Gabriella Csima, P. Szabó, G. Szépszó, • Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS), Budapest, Hungary • J. Bartholy, A. Hunyady, I.Pieczka,R.Pongrácz,Cs. Torma • Eötvös Loránd University (ELU), Department of Meteorology, Budapest, Hungary

  2. CONTENT • Members of the regional climate modelling mini-ensemble (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO models) • Validation results (1961-1990) • Projections (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) • Summary

  3. REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IN HUNGARY

  4. THE INTEGRATION DOMAINS REMO ALADIN Hungary PRECIS RegCM Evaluation area for maps

  5. VALIDATION RESULTS PERIOD: 1961-1990, LBC: ERA40, VALIDATION DATASET: CRU10’

  6. ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (°C) - 1961-1990 ALADIN PRECIS RegCM REMO ALADIN is too cold, while REMO is too warm!  PRECIS and RegCM have less bias, but rather cold over the mountains (not shown)

  7. ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (%) - 1961-1990 ALADIN PRECIS RegCM REMO All the models are rather humid (especially ALADIN and RegCM) For PRECIS and especially for REMO also some dry areas can be identified

  8. PROJECTIONS PERIODS: 2021-2050 and 2071-2100

  9. MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE VALUES (°C) 2021–2050; 3 models; A1B 2071–2100, 3 models; 4 experiments; A1B, A2, B2 The standard deviation between the models is larger in summer (than in other seasons) indicating larger uncertainties

  10. MONTHLY MEAN PECIPITATION VALUES (mm/month) 2021–2050; 3 models; A1B 2071–2100, 3 models; 4 experiments; A1B, A2, B2 The ALADIN model has very different behaviour, than the others, the annual cycle is very „flat” for RegCM

  11. CHANGE OF RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE (1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100) REGCM ALADIN PRECIS REMO JANUARY JULY Remarkable shift of the summer temperature distribution for the PRECIS model

  12. THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION mm/month 2021-2050 The changes are rather small and mostly not significant (except the summer precipitation decrease) 2071-2100

  13. The probability of temperatureincrease 1 C2021-2050 2 C4 C2071-2100 6 C A n n. M A M J J A S O N D J F THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE DOESN’T EXCEED 2 C FOR 2021-2050 THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL BE MORE THAN 4 C FOR 2071-2100

  14. The probability of precipitationdecrease -10% 2021-2050 -5% -10% 2071-2100-5% A n n. M A M J J A S O N D J F THE PRECIPITATION DECREASE WILL BE LESS THAN 10% FOR 2021-2050 THE PRECIPITATION DECREASE MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANT (50%) IN SUMMER FOR 2071-2100

  15. The probability of precipitationincrease 5% 2021-2050 10% 5% 2071-2100 10% A n n. M A M J J A S O N D J F THE PRECIPITATION INCREASE WILL BE 5-10% IN AUTUMNFOR 2021-2050 THE PRECIPITATION INCREASE WILL BE 5-10% IN AUTUMN AND WINTER FOR 2071-2100

  16. SUMMARY • Four regional climate models (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCMand REMO) are adapted and used in Hungary • The performance of the models (based on the validation runs) are somewhat different • First results of the ensemble evaluation indicate that for Hungary • 2021-2050 • The temperature is projected to increase with 1-2 C • The annual precipitation is projected to slightly decrease (not significantly!) • The summer precipitation decrease is very likely • 2071-2100 • The temperature is projected to increase with around 4 C • Slight decrease of annual precipitation is likely • The summer precipitation decrease is almost certain • Some limitations • Only four models are applied (for the ensemble evaluation only three • can be considered) • The used scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) are not the same!

  17. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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