Chinese Graduate Students in the US: The Increasing Lure of the Economic Boom Back Home?

1. Chinese Graduate Students in the US: The Increasing Lure of the Economic Boom Back Home? 51st International Studies Association Annual Conference February 18, 2010 Ryan P. Kellogg UCLA Anderson School of Management

2. Study Background Foreign scholars play a critical role in US Science and Engineering (S&E) research Source: NSF Qi Lu, Doctorate at Carnegie Mellon and current executive in charge of Microsoft’s Bing search engine. Photo Source: The Economist, 2/4/10

3. Study Background Recent reports seem to indicate an increase in Chinese returnees • Increases of returnees in the 1990s and following the dot com crash of the early 2000s were the result of improved incentives • Recent reports seem to indicate that the financial crisis in Western nations may drive this return rate higher US Recessions Source: Chinese Statistical Yearbook, 2008 This study looks for evidence of this rising trend in returnees for Chinese S&E graduate students in the US

4. Previous Studies Intention to return seems to be rising… • Some notes: • Figures from Zhang taken before Tiananmen and changes in US visa policy (June 4th Green Card) • Differences in phrasing of questioning between surveys could have an impact • Wadhwaet al. survey had higher portion of non-PhD students

5. Previous Studies ….but actual return rates are low and have held steady • Finn’s study shows Chinese S&E doctorates to have the highest stay rates of any foreign student based on IRS tax return filings • 10-year stay rates also remain high and ‘brain circulation’ seems minimal Source: Finn, 2010 Stated intentions to return prior to the completion of their dissertation are largely unrealized by graduation, but why?

6. Previous Studies What factors have been influential in shaping these decisions? Political Dynamic Social Networks • Gender • Presence of family (spouse/children) outside the US* • Parent’s attitudes towards migration decision* • Returnee networks • Political freedom and stability • Nationalist sentiments* • Visa worries* • Anti-Americanism Career and Economic Factors • Housing quality* • Income* • Career opportunities* • Entrepreneurial talents and access to technology * Studies from the past 10 years have indicated significant relationship with intention to return (p<0.1) There are numerous variables in the migration decision, but their relative importance in the decision making process unclear

7. Ongoing Work: Using Conjoint Analysis The job search process seems to be the critical driving force behind migration decisions • Current study seeks to simulate the actual job decision process for S&E PhDs and postdocs • Conjoint analysis, a marketing research tool, is used to force respondents to make choices between various competing factors • This method has been used widely beyond marketing, and been found effective for predicting preferences of job candidates Conjoint analysis eliminates the problem that ‘everything’ is important by revealing the true preferences of the individual

8. Ongoing Work The following proposed hypotheses will be tested using this approach • Hypothesis #1: • Chinese S&E graduate students and postdoctoral scholars do not return home in percentages equal to their stated intention because the marginal utility of returning to the PRC versus staying in the US cannot be provided by the current salaries offered by the Chinese labor market • Hypothesis #2: • Chinese students that have a higher willingness to return home will score higher on the national pride index • Hypothesis #3: • Chinese students that have a higher willingness to return home are more likely to have a business already or a strong interest in starting a business

9. Ongoing Work: Methodology Population • 388 S&E PhD candidates and post-docs at UCLA were contacted to participate in online survey after extensive focus group testing • Current response rate: ~40% Conjoint Analysis Exercises • Consists of two main parts: Pairwise comparison and Individual ranking of 25 different job options • Job profiles vary based on location, proximity to family, job title, employer, and annual salary Demographics and Attitudinal • Consists of 15 questions based on factors from previous studies (e.g. Family, entrepreneurial leanings, nationalism) • Nationalism questions based on University of Chicago longitudinal study on national pride (Smith and Kim, 2006)

10. Ongoing Work: Methodology Conjoint questions consist of different attributes and levels • Job offer attributes and levels were generated with the help of Robert Zeithammer, a marketing professor at UCLA Anderson • Profiles generated to ensure balance (each level of each attribute should appear the same # of times) and orthogonality (attributes should be combined independently)

11. Scholars’ measured preference Step 1: Collection of data Attributes Job profiles ··· ··· ··· Step 2: Dummy coding and regression Y X Respondents’ ratings of each job profile are coded to allow regression to be run for the dependent variable (Y) and independent variables (X)

12. Step 3: Translate regression coefficients into marginal utilities (partworths) Marginal utilities generated with coefficients from multiple regression Step 4: Partworths can be used to calculate importance weights and monetize preferences So in this example, the respondent would be willing to give up $19,500 in annual salary in order to work in China rather than the US ($1363 x 14.26) Using the results from the regression to determine the partworths (marginal utility) for each attribute allows for the relative importance to be determined, as well as estimate the value respondents place on one attribute over another

13. The Way Forward • Finalize survey data collection in March for UCLA, possible expansion to two more universities for comparative purposes • Analyze individual responses and utility functions Determine unique ‘exchange rate’ for each respondent • Determine how results differ using demographic and attitudinal questions • Are entrepreneurs, high scorers on nationalism questions, family back home more willing to ‘give up’ higher salaries in the US to return home?

14. Thank You Q&A

15. Appendix

16. Agenda

17. Previous Studies Several surveys of Chinese students in the US have been carried out in the past 20 years • Focus is on those studies that looked at the stated intention to return, a useful indicator for future migration decisions (Alzen and Fishbein, 1980; Li et al., 1996) • Zhang, 1992: Explored effects of post-Tiananmen politics on return rates • Zweig and Chen, 1995: In depth study on the causes and consequences of Chinese brain drain to the US • Kellogg, 2006: Looked at the impact of 9/11 on students stated intention to return and influences of nationalism • Wadhwaet al., 2009: Attempts to substantiate reports during the financial crisis that foreign students in the US believe better opportunities lie elsewhere

18. Previous Studies What factors have been influential in shaping these decisions? Social Networks • Gender had a significant impact on returning in Zweig and Chen’s study, but by 2005 this was no longer a clear differentiator • Presence of family (spouse/children) outside the US and parent’s attitudes towards returning also found to be significant (Zweig and Chen, 1995; Kellogg, 2006) • Returnee networks and difficulty in transitioning back to a guanxi-based professional environment also cited(Chen, 2006; ) Political Dynamic • Concerns about political freedom and stability featured strongly in many older studies (Huang, 1988; Zhang, 1992; Zweig and Chen, 1995) • Higher expressions of nationalist belief, as expressed by greater agreement with the Chinese government on select policies and a desire to give back to their country, was shown to be correlated with higher intentions to return (Kellogg, 2006) • While the visa worries have lessened since Congressional reforms, obtaining a work visa remains a significant concern • Anti-Americanism does not appear to have a significant impact (Kellogg, 2006; Wadhwaet al., 2009)

19. Previous Studies What factors have been influential in shaping these decisions? Career and Economic Factors • Zweig and Chen’s survey showed differences in economic indicators based on the presence of children. Housing quality for those with children and income and overall economic wellbeing for those without children were significant. • Appealing career opportunities were found to be important in numerous studies, which included aspects like job title, salary, and autonomy in research • Belief that the US offered better career opportunities went from 50% (Kellogg, 2006) to 27% (Wadhwaet al., 2009) showing the impact of the economic downturn • Individuals with entrepreneurial talents and access to technology unavailable in Chinese markets have numerous incentives to return (Zweig et al., 2006) There are numerous variables in the migration decision, but their relative importance in the decision making process unclear

20. Ongoing Work: Methodology Nationalism questions look at both general and domain specific national pride Source: Smith, Tom and Seokho Kim. (2006). World Opinion: National Pride in Comparative Perspective: 1995/96 and 2003/4. International Journal of Public Opinion Research. 18(1) :127-135.

21. Ongoing Work: Preliminary Results