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Comparing Hurricanes and Hurricane Seasons

Learn about hurricane characteristics, formation, impacts on land, ACE Index, seasonal outlooks, and implications for society. Reference reliable sources and explore how predictions influence decision-making.

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Comparing Hurricanes and Hurricane Seasons

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  1. Comparing Hurricanes and Hurricane Seasons

  2. Saffir-Simpson Scale • Based on wind speed: Hurricanes that are Category 3 or higher (>111 knots) are called major hurricanes. What is a hurricane? What 4 conditions are necessary for hurricane formation What happens as hurricanes approach land?

  3. Accumulated Cyclone Energy ACE =10-4Σ(maximum wind speed in knots)2 maximum sustained winds every 6 hours

  4. Example: Irene (2011)

  5. Example: 2011 Total Is a seasonal total ACE of 126 above normal? Below normal? Normal?

  6. ACE Season Totals What was last season’s ACE total? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/?n=2012event_hurricaneseasonwrap

  7. Seasonal Outlooks • There is great interest in trying to predict: • How many hurricanes, major hurricanes? WHY? • General awareness/preparedness • Some predictions about climate are useful for deciding what crops to plant HOWEVER— we cannot yet predict specific hurricanes more than a few days in advance

  8. We are currently in a high-activity era More total storms per year More big storms per year And more energy released by all the hurricanes combined in a year (ACE)

  9. The latest . . .

  10. Plant more drought-resistant or water-loving crops? Allocate funds for education and evacuation? Cut tree limbs near house? Restock emergency kit? • Looking at the most recent hurricane season outlook for the Atlantic Ocean: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/ • What implications can you imagine for this outlook (above-normal, normal, or below-normal) for • a farmer in Georgia? • a governor in New Jersey? • your own life?

  11. Summary • How big is a hurricane? • Saffir-Simpson scale • ACE Index calculation • Multi-decadal cycles (high/low activity eras) • Seasonal outlooks and applications to society

  12. References and Reuse Slide 4. Data in public domain. • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season Slides 4 and 5. Data in public domain . . . Can be updated for different years and hurricanes: • http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ Slide 6. Screenshot from NOAA. Website in public domain. • http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/?n=2012event_hurricaneseasonwrap Slide 8. Screenshot from NOAA. Website in public domain. • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2012/August/figure3.gif Slide 10. Screenshot from NOAA. Website in public domain. • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/figure2.gif Slide 11. Screenshot from NOAA. Website in public domain. • http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Slide 12 refers to HurricaneOutlooksat: • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/

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