U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development

1. Making a difference: Climate impacts assessment and advances in regional resource management U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development Joel D. Scheraga & Jeffrey B. Frithsen Presentation to ReVA-MAIA Conference 2003 14 May 2003

2. Key Messages • Climate change poses risks and opportunities to a variety of systems and resources. • Scenario-based assessments are improving understanding of the range of potential impacts, and the associated uncertainties • Climate impacts are assessed relative to other stressors • Society has the ability to anticipate and prepare for change through adaptation. • Policy-focused assessments can provide timely and useful information to decision makers about potential impacts and adaptation strategies. • But: Advances need to be made to learn how to: • better integrate assessment findings into resource management decisions • effectively implement coping strategies

3. Climate Change: Potential Risks and Opportunities Health Impacts Weather-related Mortality Infectious Diseases Air Quality-Respiratory Illnesses Agriculture Impacts Crop yields Irrigation demands Climate Changes Forest Impacts Change in forest composition Shift geographic range of forests Forest Health and Productivity Temperature Precipitation Water Resource Impacts Changes in water supply Water quality Increased competition for water Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Areas Erosion of beaches Inundate coastal lands Costs to defend coastal communities Species and Natural Areas Shift in ecological zones Loss of habitat and species Spread of invasive species

4. Policy-Focused Assessments • Policy-focused assessments provide timely and useful information to • decision makers and resource managers: • about potential consequences of climate change • about possible (human) adaptation strategies • Policy assessments: Analytic, multidisciplinary activity • Engages both analysts and end-users • issues, questions and outcomes of greatest concern are elicited • from stakeholders • Assessments can’t wait for “perfect” science • Example: Design & construction of expensive new sewers that account for risks • of “combined sewer overflow” and effects of climate change on precipitation • An informed decision is better than uninformed decision • Making no decision is equivalent to a decision

5. Great Lakes University of Michigan Mid-Atlantic Pennsylvania State University Human Health Johns Hopkins University Gulf Coast Southern University EPA-Regional Assessment Activities

6. Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) Identified Systems and Resources Sensitive to Climate Change

7. Improve watershed management to reduce flood and drought damages • and protect water quality • Remove incentives for practices that place people, investments and • ecosystems in “harms way” • Improve water pricing to increase efficient water use • Foster continued adaptation in agriculture, especially for precision • agriculture and biotechnology • Monitor for higher-risk climate-related disease vectors • Why haven’t these win-win actions been implemented? MARA Identified Adaptation Options

8. Barriers to Implementation • Adaptation comes at a cost. • Strategies must be tailored to specific places. • Strategies must be tailored to different demographic groups. • Effects of climate change must be considered relative to other stressors and factors of concern. • The systemic nature of climate impacts complicates the development of adaptation policy. • Maladaptation can result in negative effects that are as serious as the • climate-induced effects. • (Source: Joel D. Scheraga & Anne E. Grambsch, “Risks, Opportunities, and Adaptation to Climate Change,” Climate Research, Vol. 11, No. 1, 1998, 85-95)

9. How to Improve Implementation • 1 Elicit information needs from decision makers (“Know thy endpoint”) • 2 Evaluate effectiveness of alternative adaptation strategies (a priori) • 3 Characterize uncertainties – and explain implications for outcomes of concern to decision makers • 4 Develop decision support tools • 5 Conduct “value of information” exercises • 6 Communicate complex assessment findings

10. 1. Eliciting Information Needs • Advances need to be made in: • Stakeholder identification: Identification of all interested • constituencies (stakeholders) at outset of assessment • New stakeholders often identified during course of an assessment • Risk perceptions: Understanding stakeholder perceptions • What are their perceptions? • Are perceptions scientifically sound? • How are perceptions formed? • Issue identification: Ascertaining issues of concern to stakeholders • One approach: Initial workshops and subsequent consultations permit: • researchers to share best-available scientific information • stakeholders to articulate their questions & concerns

11. Example: Great Lakes Region Assessment • Great Lakes Water Levels (March 2001) • Focus on shipping, recreational boating, safety, • infrastructure • Lake Ecology (June 2001) • Focus on Productivity and fishing • Agriculture (March 2002) • Focus on farming, insurance, adaptation • Terrestrial Ecology (June 2002) • Focus on forests, wildlife, and timber industry • Recreation (October 2002) • Focus will be on winter recreation and economy

12. 2. Evaluating Alternative Adaptation Strategies • Can’t be cavalier about effectiveness of adaptive strategies • Critical to assess factors affecting effectiveness of particular strategies • Adaptive responses vary in effectiveness, as demonstrated by current • efforts to cope with climate variability • Effectiveness of adaptation strategies may vary from place to place • Effects of adaptation strategies may vary across demographic groups • Effects of adaptation strategies may be affected by other stresses • Anticipate unintended consequences

13. Example: Adapting to Heat Stress • Health Sector Assessment insight #1: Heat stress kills. • Assessment insight #2: Heat waves are projected to increase in • severity and frequency • Assessment insight #3: Elderly, very young, and infirm are the most vulnerable • Problem: People die of heat stress even under current conditions • These are preventable deaths • Example: 600+ people (mostly elderly) died in Chicago in 1995 Why? • Subsequent analysis: (1) Fear of crime; (2) Inability to pay for air conditioning • Pilot implementation: Heat/Health Weather-Watch Warning System implemented in Philadelphia augmented by “buddy system” for elderly.

14. Characterizing Uncertainties • Many resource management decisions do not require predictions of future changes • Useful information from: • scenarios • “What if?” or “If… then…” analyses • Historic analogs • Regardless of approach, need to improve methods for: • quantifying uncertainties • displaying uncertainties • characterizing implications for resource management decisions • Also, resource managers need better tools to facilitate decision • making under uncertainty

15. Example: Regional 50% Probability Estimates of Sea Level Rise in 2100 and 2200 Portland, ME 19 43 Seattle, WA 19 42 New York, NY 22 48 San Francisco, CA 15 36 Los Angeles 13 32 Charleston, SC 25 53 Miami Beach, FL 20 44 Grand Isle, LA 55 112 Estimates are in inches. Source: U.S. EPA (1995).

16. Developing Decision Support Tools • Resource managers needs tools to help: • depict potential impacts • place effects of climate change in context of other stresses • display implications & tradeoffs of alternative management decisions • for outcomes of concern • for criteria of concern • facilitate decision making under uncertainty

17. Example: Risk Maps to Guide Public Health Interventions Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) • 1993: HPS outbreak in SW with high death rate (>50%) • Hypothesis: outbreak due to environmental conditions and increased rodent populations caused by unusual weather associated with 1991-92 ENSO • Results of EPA-sponsored study: • high-risk areas for HPS can be predicted over 6 months in advance • requires satellite generated risk maps of climate-dependent land cover. • Risk maps: • developed in partnership with CDC and the Indian Health Service • already being implemented for disease prevention in the southwest by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

19. “Value of Information” Exercises • Ongoing provision of useful information in timely fashion requires prioritization of knowledge gaps • research funds are scarce • ensure timely provision of useful information to resource managers • “Value of Information” (VOI) calculations are one approach • VOI depends on: • changing stakeholder needs and values • timeliness and relevance of information • new stakeholder questions • VOI exercise needs to be part of assessment process

20. Example: High Priority MARA Information Gaps • The “most important information and research needs”: • frequency, timing and intensity of average and extreme weather • effects of average & extreme weather on: • agriculture • forests • fresh water quantity and quality • coastal zones • ecosystems • human health • benefits and costs of alternative adaptation options • improved methods for evaluating how proposed shifts in policy might affect vulnerability to climate variability and change. Next step: Further prioritization needed through VOI exercise

21. Challenges in Communicating Assessment Findings • Complex issues • Many uncertainties • potential consequences • adaptation strategies • Lack of salience • Lag in impacts • Impacts are diffuse • Need to make climate change “real” for stakeholders • Powerless?

22. CLOUD ICE ICE CLOUD ICE PEI ICE PEI Example: Making Climate Change “Real” for Commercial Shippers - Ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence 1987: Sea ice reduces wave action and amount of shore erosion. March 25, 1987 7 1999: Little sea ice is present. (Most white areas are clouds.) Shore exposed to wave action of winter storms. March 26, 1999 Source: Environment Canada

23. Example: Making Climate Change “Real” • I

24. Making a Difference in Practice? • Is anyone effectively changing the way they do business in • anticipation of future climate change? • Yes… • but only a few… • Is anyone effectively changing the way they do business given • increased awareness of the sensitivity of outcomes to climate? • Yes, a lot • Many as “reactive adaptation” • Examples: • Canadian ports • Coastal zone protection • Health monitoring and surveillance • Migration corridors for wildlife • Maple syrup industries in Canada and U.S. • Ski resorts

25. Example: Commercial Shippers’ Concerns in Great Lakes Regions Lake Michigan-Huron • For each inch of draft lost, 1,000 foot ships must offload 270 tons of freight • Options proposed at Chicago Lake Levels Workshop: • Lengthen shipping season • Dredging • Shallower-draft ships • Shift to land transport • Research Needs: • Does dredging exacerbate or ameliorate contaminated sediments? • What non-dredge options are there? • What are the consequences of each?

26. Summary Identify clear endpoints Stakeholder driven questions Conduct assessment and Identify uncertainties Identify options for response Evaluate Effectiveness of response Communicate to stakeholders Gap between assessment And response Was information Received?