1 / 26

Skills required by the NZ economy

Skills required by the NZ economy. presentation to Skilling the Community – Preparing for the Upturn Southern Institute of Technology 16 July 2009 Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist Editor, BERL Forecasts Business and Economic Research Ltd. Agenda. the current NZ economic situation

deepak
Download Presentation

Skills required by the NZ economy

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Skills required by the NZ economy presentation to Skilling the Community – Preparing for the Upturn Southern Institute of Technology 16 July 2009 Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist Editor, BERL Forecasts Business and Economic Research Ltd

  2. Agenda • the current NZ economic situation • preparing for the upturn • ‘tertiary’ role • what next?

  3. Unemployment

  4. Employmentannual change

  5. EmploymentAnnual growth: Mar 09 cf Mar 08

  6. Anatomy of employment growth • 418,000 extra jobs over 10 years to March 2009 • reduction in unemployment of 19,000 • increase in ‘population’ 288,000 • where did other 111,000 come from?

  7. Anatomy of employment growth 1999-2009

  8. Labour force participation rate

  9. Labour force participation rate

  10. Labour force participation rate - females

  11. Labour force participation rate - females

  12. Labour force participation rate – 55-60yos

  13. Net migration to NZ from regionsannual totals

  14. The Achilles’ Heel of the NZ Economy

  15. Preparing for the upturn … “Looking beyond our present circumstances, our future depends on our ability to export.” Budget Speech, July 1980

  16. How many are needed?Projected change in employment by occupation 2007-2026

  17. Which skill is (most) important? • using economic model to explore impact of increase in particular skill types • laboratory-type experiments • ask: • which skills provide biggest boost to economy?

  18. Model experimentsIndirect impact on GDP of additional person

  19. Economy is integrated system • focus on particular skills ignores relationships inherent between industries and sectors • similar to asking what industry is most important?

  20. Economics is … land people buildings businesses skills & knowledge water liquidity swap rates house prices interest rates inflation leverage debt hedge funds ratings networks experience innovation technology machinery & equipment

  21. A sobering thought … • Of NZ’s 20-40 year olds more than a quarter of a million (268,000) have, AT BEST, a level 1 qualification • and, remember, the majority of these will remain in NZ’s labour force for the next 20 years (if not longer) • this group will play a significant role in NZ’s productivity performance for the next 20 years (at least)

  22. Transforming the New Zealand economy needs: • more people • with more skills • of all skill types … and there is economic and social justification to support all skill provision * vocational * trades * academic * professional

  23. Key components of NZ labour supply growth • the traditional flow • new entrants from school • the untapped potential • those already in workforce • the new flow • those previously ‘not in labour force’ • migrants

  24. ‘Tertiary’ role (1) Attract and train: • secondary graduates in vocational and professional skills • lower skilled people in the workforce to increase generic, or specific skills • older people with skills that enable them to keep working • engage mature people not in the labour force to begin learning, and assist them to staircase

  25. ‘Tertiary’ role (2) • to recognise that the ‘non-traditional’ flows are (potentially) an important source for increases in overall skills

  26. Preparing for the upturn (2) “Growth in New Zealand will be propelled by technological change, investment and higher productivity.” Budget Speech, July 1978

More Related