What’s New at the Canadian International Trade Tribunal?

1. What’s New at the Canadian International Trade Tribunal? A Strategy for Injury Determination

2. Outline • What is the CITT? • WTO & Canadian frameworks for injury determination • Past CITT strategies • Current CITT strategy • What’s next?

3. Canada has a long history with trade remedies • World’s first anti-dumping legislation in 1904

4. What is the CITT? • Created January 1, 1989 • An independent, quasi-judicial, decision-makingbody • Canada has a bifurcated system • CITT does injury investigations • CITT also does safeguards, general economic studies, procurement and appeals • 7 Members, 100 staff

5. WTO Framework • Anti-dumping Agreement 3.1 – objective examination of volumes, effect on prices, impact on domestic producers 3.2 – significant increase in volumes? – significant price undercutting? 3.5 – dumped imports are causing injury through the effects of dumping – non-attribution

6. Canadian Framework • Special Import Measures Act (SIMA) • CITT to inquire as to whether the dumping of the subject goods has caused injury • Injury = material injury to the domestic industry

7. SIMA Regulations CITT must consider 3 factors • Volume of dumped goods • Significant increase? • Effects on Prices • Significant undercutting, depressing, suppression? • Impact on the domestic industry • Actual/potential decline in output, sales, market share, profits, productivity, ROI or the utilization of capacity

8. SIMA Regulations (con’t) CITT must determine • whether a causal relationship exists between the dumping … of the goods and the injury(Causation) • whether any factors other than the dumping … of the goods has caused injury(Non-attribution)

9. The challenge for authorities • Attribution of injury • Dumping is almost never the only factor

10. Total Effects Overall extent of injury caused by all factors is material There is a causal link between the dumping and the material injury. Dumping Effects Injury caused directly by the dumping is severe enough on its own to material Two Schools of Thought Dumping does not have to be the most important, major or principal cause of the total material injury

11. CITT Strategies • Reasons for Decision • 1989-91 • Mostly total effects • Injury First • 1992-99 • Total effects • Dumping In and Of Itself • 2000-2003 • Dumping effects • Sequential Analysis • 2003 to Present • Dumping effects

12. Reasons for Decision Strategy • No fixed structure • Narrative • Materiality, causation,other factors together • Often assessed total injury first

13. Injury First Strategy • 1st question – did the industry experience material injury? • 2nd question – was there a causal link with the dumping? • Material injury had 2 meanings: total injury and injury from dumping

14. Dumping In and Of Itself Strategy • Statistical summary – no conclusion on material injury • Relate observed trends to dumping • Determine if negative effects of dumping are material on their own • Presentation varied case to case

15. Sequential Analysis Strategy • Mirrors SIMA • Assess 3 injury factors • Volume • Effects on prices • Impact on domestic industry • Causation conclusion • Did the dumping cause material injury? • Non-attribution • Role of other factors?

16. Volume of Dumped Goods • Significant increase? • Displace domestic production? • Gain market share? • Outcomes: • Laminate Flooring NQ-2004-006 • Increase in dumped goods √ Negative volume impacts√ • Certain Steel Fuel Tanks NQ-2004-002 • Increase in dumped goods √ Few negative volume impacts √ • Unprocessed Grain Corn NQ-2005-001 • No increase in dumped goods

17. Effects on Prices • Significant price undercutting, suppression, depression? • Outcomes: Certain Stainless Steel Wire NQ-2004-001 Dumped prices fall √ Domestic prices increase √ → Price suppression Certain Fasteners (Carbon Steel Screws) NQ-2004-005 Dumped prices fall √ Domestic prices flat √ → Price erosion Certain Fasteners (Carbon Steel Nuts and Bolts) NQ-2004-005 Dumped prices rise √ Domestic prices fall √ → No negative impact

18. Impact, Causation and Other Factors • Trends in domestic industry? • Impact of dumped goods? • Causation • Did the dumping cause material injury? • Other factors

19. Impact, Causation and Other Factors (con’t) • Positive Injury Determinations: • Certain Stainless Steel Wire NQ-2004-001 • Negative outcomes for domestic industry√ • Dumping caused material injury • Other factors also had impact • Laminate Flooring NQ-2004-006 • Negative outcomes for domestic industry√ • Injury is material • Causal link • The material injury caused by the dumping is material • Other factors also had impact

20. Impact, Causation and Other Factors (con’t) • Negative Injury Determinations • Certain Steel Fuel Tanks NQ-2004-002 • Negative outcomes for the domestic industry√ • Dumping did not cause material injury • Injury attributable to other factors • Certain Fasteners (Carbon Steel Nuts and Bolts) NQ-2004-005 • Negative outcomes for the domestic industry√ • Injury is material • Injury can’t be attributed to dumped goods • Other factors

21. Lessons Learned:Sequential analysis • Explicitly incorporates the key components of Canada trade remedies legislation • Provides framework for investigative work throughout case • Consistent format for decisions • Eventually! • See Unprocessed Grain Corn NQ-2005-001

22. What is Next at the CITT? • No new strategies? • Unlikely!