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The Primary System

The Primary System. Presidential Party Nomination Systems. “King Caucus”: 1800-1828 Convention System: 1832-1912 Mixed System: 1912-1968 Primary System: 1972-???. McGovern Fraser Commission: Changes to Democratic Party Rules. Anti-discrimination provisions

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The Primary System

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  1. The Primary System

  2. Presidential Party Nomination Systems “King Caucus”: 1800-1828 Convention System: 1832-1912 Mixed System: 1912-1968 Primary System: 1972-???

  3. McGovern Fraser Commission: Changes to Democratic Party Rules • Anti-discrimination provisions • Explicit party rules and open party meetings • Bans the UNIT RULE • Unit rule: the practice of apportioning delegates in a winner-take-all fashion • Encourages broad and open participation in delegate selection process • Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in delegate selection process • Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and elected officeholders

  4. Number of states holding primary elections

  5. Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries

  6. Some delegates still chosen by other means • Caucus: • A Meeting where any affiliated voter can come and express their opinions • State convention: • Local party groups select delegates to state party convention. State convention delegates select delegates to national nominating convention.

  7. Consequences of Party Reform • Increase in number of primaries • Increase in importance of media • (And hence the importance of early primaries!)

  8. Consequences of Party Reform • Increase in number of primaries • Increase in importance of media • Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!)

  9. A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

  10. Consequences of Party Reform • Increase in number of primaries • Increase in importance of media • Increase in importance of early primaries (and momentum and expectations!) • Decreases importance of national party conventions

  11. Consequences of Party Reform • Increase in number of primaries • Increase in importance of media • Increase in importance of early primaries • Decreases importance of national party conventions • Decreases importance of state party leaders • Party activists give way to candidate activists

  12. Changes After 1968 • McGovern-Fraser reforms • FECA

  13. Federal Election Campaign Act • Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections • All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year • Bans large donations by individuals • Individuals can only give $2000 to a primary candidate

  14. Consequences of Party Reform & FECA • Increase in number of primaries • Increase in importance of media • Increase in importance of early primaries • Decreases importance of national party conventions • Decreases importance of state party leaders • Harder to raise money (takes longer to raise big money in small contributions!)

  15. A Couple of Problems? • Ideological primary voters? • Candidates mobilize factions?

  16. Presidential Party Nomination Systems “King Caucus”: 1800-1828 Convention System: 1832-1912 Mixed System: 1912-1968 Primary System: 1972-1982? Frontloaded primary system 1982-present

  17. Hunt Commission, 1982 • Superdelegates • Frontloading

  18. The Invisible Primary • Role for elites • Role of money • Role of the press • Role for voters • Momentum in Invisible Primary, not necessarily primaries themselves

  19. Republican nomination 2000 • Bush’s money • April 1999: $6 million • July 1999: $36 million • December 1999: $70 million • Closest competitor: McCain • July 1999: $6 million • December 1999: $15 million

  20. Bush: Michigan Gov. John Engler (R) Oklahoma Gov. Frank A. Keating Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R) Conn. Gov. John G. Rowland (R Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R) Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R) R.I. Gov. Lincoln C. Almond La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R) Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R) Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R) Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore II N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R) Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R) Wis. Gov. Tommy Thompson Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R) Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R) Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R) Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R) W.Va. Gov. Cecil H. Underwood N.J. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman Alexander Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) Forbes NM Governor Gary Johnson Hatch UT Gov. Mike Levitt Quayle Miss. Gov. Fordice & Endorsements…

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