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EU-25 Energy Outlook to 2030 and a view in Turkey

Baseline scenario (1). Baseline scenario constructed in the context of the

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EU-25 Energy Outlook to 2030 and a view in Turkey

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    1. EU-25 Energy Outlook to 2030 and a view in Turkey European Bridges of Knowledge Program Energy Policy of the EU and implications for Turkey Ankara 20/06/2003 Dr. L. Mantzos E3M-Lab / ICCS-NTUA contact: Kapros@central.ntua.gr

    2. Baseline scenario (1) Baseline scenario constructed in the context of the “Long Range Energy Modelling” framework contract by Energy and Transport DG Finalised in December 2002 Covers EU Member States (PRIMES model), the 13 EU candidate countries (ACE model), Norway and Switzerland (ACE model) Incorporates EUROSTAT energy balances for year 2000 (as in July 2002) Transport activity data for year 2000 (as in July 2002) Macroeconomic and demographic data for year 2000 (as in July 2002) Member States comments Insight gained from policy analysis performed

    3. Baseline scenario (2) A detailed analysis of assumptions and results can be found in the forthcoming publication of Energy and Transport DG: “European Energy and Transport – Trends to 2030” Results presented here are slightly different PRIMES model also used for EU Acceding Countries, EU Candidate countries, Norway and Switzerland Developed in the context of the LREM project in the meantime A second publication will follow in Autumn including Selected policy analysis cases examined in the context of the study Different cases examining the impact of the Kyoto Protocol to the EU Member States, candidate and neighboring countries energy systems

    4. Key assumptions for the Baseline scenario (1) World energy prices develop moderately over the projection period POLES model results: scenario constructed in the context of the LREM Framework contract assumes Continuation of current world energy market structures Conventional view on fossil fuel reserves / abundant resources in the horizon to 2030 Demographic assumptions EUROSTAT historical data and projections used for population Projections of the United Nations Global Urban Observatory and Statistics Unit of UN-HABITAT used for household size Also for population growth in Acceding countries beyond 2003 Weather assumptions: 2000 weather conditions maintained throughout the projection horizon

    5. International fuel prices ($00 per boe)

    6. Key assumptions of the baseline scenario (2) Macroeconomic assumptions GDP growth in the current EU reaches 2.3% pa on average in 2000-2030 Modest compared to the ambitions of the Lisbon strategy High compared with the current weak state of the EU economy Faster economic growth in Acceding countries (in the ACC region annual GDP growth reaches 3.5% pa in 2000-2030) Gradual convergence of the EU economies is assumed to continue throughout the projection period However, even by 2030, per capita GDP in acceding countries remains more than 30% lower compared to the EU (from 55.5% lower in 2000) Economic modernisation also continues throughout the projection period involving: Restructuring away of primary and secondary sectors and towards services Dematerialisation of industrial production; a trend driven by a Shift away from energy intensive processes Increasing importance of new industrial activities with high value added and a lower material base (for example pharmaceuticals and cosmetics; computer equipment etc.)

    7. Value added growth in EU-25 % change from 1990 levels

    8. Summary of policies and measures included in PRIMES baseline (1) The baseline assumes that agreed policies addressing economic actors in the Member States, as known by the end of 2001, would be continued: Dynamic trends of technological progress Current trends as regards sectoral restructuring of the EU economy continue Liberalisation of electricity and gas markets assumed to develop fully by 2010 Restructuring in power and steam generation enabled by mature gas based power generation technologies Ongoing infrastructure projects in some member states involving the introduction of natural gas assumed to gain full maturity by 2005 Continuation of agreed policies addressing economic actors in the Member states, as defined by the end of 2001 Energy policies aiming at promoting renewable energy are assumed to continue (the EC renewables electricity Directive is not included explicitly in the baseline) Different policies in place by member state as regards nuclear energy The effects from the ACEA/KAMA/JAMA negotiated agreements are fully incorporated in the baseline

    9. Summary of policies and measures included in PRIMES baseline (2) For analytical purposes the baseline scenario does not include any new policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions This is to assist in identifying the remaining gaps in the energy and transport sectors with respect to the EU’s Kyoto commitment The incorporation of permit prices under the “with climate policy measures” scenario leads to the adoption of policy measures in a cost effective way for the energy system so as to reduce CO2 emissions This approach allows considering the Baseline as the benchmark against which a number of alternative policies can be measured, assisting policy analysts in the evaluation of alternative measures

    10. EU-25 Energy Outlook to 2030 Overall energy system development

    11. Key Findings Strong de-linking of economic growth from energy Energy intensity improves by 1.7% pa in 2000-2030 Significant changes occur in the fuel mix of the energy system Strong penetration for natural gas and renewable energy forms The market share of all other energy forms declines over the projection period CO2 emissions grow over the projection period -0.3% from 1990 levels in 2010 (from –2.8% in 2000), +11.7 in 2020, +19.0 in 2030 Carbon intensity improvement worsens beyond 2015 Import dependency reaches up to 67.3% in 2030 (53.3 in 2010) from 47.2% in 2000 Power generation and transport sector are the key drivers as regards the evolution of the energy system

    12. EU-25 Primary Energy Indicators, 1990-2030 Indexed to 1990=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

    13. EU-25 Primary Energy Needs by Fuel % share in Gross Inland Consumption

    14. Structure of CO2 emissions by sector in EU-25 % share in total CO2 emissions

    15. Additional CO2 Emissions from 1990 levels Mt of CO2

    16. EU-25 Energy Outlook to 2030 Evolution of the demand side

    17. EU-25 Final Energy Demand, 2000-2030 Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

    18. Final energy demand in EU-25 % change by sector from 1990 levels

    19. Final energy demand in EU-25 by fuel % share in total final energy demand

    20. Demand side CO2 emissions in EU-25 % change from 1990 levels

    21. Energy intensity improvement in EU-25 industry % difference from 2000 levels

    22. Carbon intensity improvement in EU-25 industry % difference from 2000 levels

    23. Evolution of Tertiary sector in EU-25, 1990-2030 Energy intensity per unit of value added (toe per MEuro’00) / Energy consumed per capita (kgoe per capita) drawn against the secondary axis

    24. Evolution of Residential sector in EU-25, 1990-2030 Energy intensity per unit of income (toe per MEuro’00) / Energy consumed per capita (kgoe per capita) drawn against the secondary axis

    25. Evolution of passenger transport efficiency in EU-25, 1990-2030 Energy consumed per unit of passenger activity (toe per Mpkm) / Energy consumed per unit of freight activity (toe per Mtkm) drawn against the secondary axis

    26. EU-25 Energy Outlook to 2030 Power generation

    27. EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030 Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

    28. EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030 Installed capacity in GW, load factor drawn against the secondary axis

    29. EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030 Capacity expansion in GW

    30. EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030 Structural characteristics

    31. EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030 % share by energy form in electricity generation

    32. Evolution of power generation sector in EU-25, 1990-2030 Thermal electricity production efficiency (%) / Carbon intensity (t of CO2 per MWh) drawn against the secondary axis

    33. Turkey - Energy Outlook to 2030 Overall energy system development

    34. Turkey - Primary Energy Indicators, 1990-2030 Indexed to 1990=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

    35. Turkey - Primary Energy Needs by Fuel % share in Gross Inland Consumption

    36. Turkey - Additional CO2 Emissions from 1990 levels Mt of CO2

    37. Turkey - Energy Outlook to 2030 Evolution of the demand side

    38. Turkey - Final Energy Demand, 2000-2030 Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

    39. Final energy demand in Turkey % change by sector from 1990 levels

    40. Final energy demand in Turkey by fuel % share in total final energy demand

    41. Demand side CO2 emissions in Turkey % change from 1990 levels

    42. Turkey - Energy intensity improvement in industry % difference from 2000 levels

    43. Turkey - Carbon intensity improvement in industry % difference from 2000 levels

    44. Evolution of Tertiary sector in Turkey, 1990-2030 Energy intensity per unit of value added (toe per MEuro’00) / Energy consumed per capita (kgoe per capita) drawn against the secondary axis

    45. Evolution of Residential sector in Turkey, 1990-2030 Energy intensity per unit of income (toe per MEuro’00) / Energy consumed per capita (kgoe per capita) drawn against the secondary axis

    46. Evolution of passenger transport efficiency in Turkey, 1990-2030 Energy consumed per unit of passenger activity (toe per Mpkm) / Energy consumed per unit of freight activity (toe per Mtkm) drawn against the secondary axis

    47. Turkey - Energy Outlook to 2030 Power generation

    48. Turkey - Power generation sector, 2000-2030 Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

    49. Turkey - Power generation sector, 2000-2030 Installed capacity in GW, load factor drawn against the secondary axis

    50. Turkey - Power generation sector, 2000-2030 Capacity expansion in GW

    51. Turkey - Power generation sector, 2000-2030 % share by energy form in electricity generation

    52. Evolution of power generation sector in Turkey, 1990-2030 Thermal electricity production efficiency (%) / Carbon intensity (t of CO2 per MWh) drawn against the secondary axis

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