Welcome to NELD Seminar 3:

1. Welcome to NELD Seminar 3: Leading for Creative and Visionary Change

2. Mapping the Future:Cartography or Carte Blanche? Natalie Schoch Natalie.schoch@kellogg.com

3. The Future: Exploring or Creating? Agenda • Thinking about the future • A systems approach • Trends to consider for: • Future Policy Making • Future Practice • Future Research

4. “The” Future Infinite Futures

5. Paradox of Time • The Past--No longer exists and can’t be changed but is all we know • The Present--Instantaneous boundary between the past and future • The Future--Has never existed but is all we have left Source: Edward Cornish, Futurist, Jul-Aug 2001

6. Look for weak signals Futures Framework Beware of Wildcards Build Mental Maps Look for Patterns and Discontinuities Challenge Assumptions Better Decisions

7. If you get the facts wrong, you get the map wrong If you get the map wrong, you do the wrong things It’s really hard to change the map. Remember this about Maps

8. “Great companies can fail precisely because they do everything right” Getting the Map Wrong The Innovator’s Dilemma Clay Christensen, Harvard Business School Press, 1997

9. The future is uncharted territory The past is home sweet home The present is putting out fires The Setting for Change

10. The Innovator’s Dilemma ? ? ? ? ? The Managers The Scientists

11. Trends/Futures World Systems Thinking, The “Big Picture,” (Avoiding the “Logic of Failure”) STEEP Social Political The Food Industry Kellogg Technical Economic Environmental Over a longer time frame than is typically considered Getting the Map Right

12. Taking a systems approach helps identify stakeholders The End of Shareholder Value Allen Kennedy,Perseus Press, 2000 Who Draws the Map Is Critical

13. Personal Results Organizational Results Networks of Committed People Successful Change Initiatives Context of Limits The Fifth Discipline Peter Senge, Doubleday, 1990

14. Scenario Planning as a systems tool for thinking about the future The Art of the Long View Peter Schwartz, Doubleday, 1996 Drawing the Map

15. Yes Issues Problems Good Bad No Drawing the Map: Scenarios • Focal Issue • List of variables • Decide two most important and most uncertain • Create scenarios (with catchy titles) • Monitor and watch for guideposts

16. “Virtual” Global Village Big Winners, Big Losers Free trade Technology dependent Community as Place Tug-of-War Competitive Communities Subsidies for Individuals Civic Entrepreneurs and economic diversity Rural Summit Scenario Global People-Driven Market-Driven Local

17. http://wwics.si.edu/lookingforward/index.htm

18. Try to challenge some assumptions Trends • Globalization • Demographic • Lifestyles • Technology • Environment

19. Globalization Driven by: Democratization of technology finance information Integrated Economies Politics Cultures Implications: Expanded markets Consolidation, Alliances, Partnerships Superpowers: Countries Companies Super-empowered individuals Thomas Friedman, Lexus and the Olive Tree, 1999

20. What Indicators of Progress should we use? Economic only Add social and environmental factors, sustainability, livability (Triple Bottom Line) Indicators of Progress

21. McWorld Market-driven economic totalism Global emphasis Greed People are consumers Westernization (americanization) via media and “infectious videology” Jihad Any religious fundamentalism Local emphasis Fear People are family or the enemy Anti-western, anti modern Jihad vs. McWorld Benjamin Barber, U of MD, 1995

22. In 1991, in only two of 22 countries the top grossing film was domestic. All the rest were US films. In 10 of these 22 countries, NO domestic films made the top 10 for that year. All were from the US. Countries included: Argentina, Austria, Brazil, Chile, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, Germany, France, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Netherlands, Mexico, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK Jihad vs. McWorld

23. McWorld—Hollywood, videogames, greed and fast food? Me replaces we. Jihad—Anti-modern, religion-based tribes? Democracy—liberty, freedom, and concern for the public good? Which World?

24. Erosion of social capital Economy of the “better deal” New World

25. Time Famine • Urbanization and suburbanization • Information and technology explosion Stress Less Demographics and Lifestyles

26. Economic prosperity—real and perceived • Aging society • Immigration and diversity US in 2010 Demographics and Lifestyles

27. Technology Honda Insight Smart Potato Toyota Prius Intelligent Transportation Systems

28. Agriculture and Environment • Decade of public acceptance of Global Warming • Water concerns are mounting • Recognizing urban and rural issues are intertwined (livability and sustainability) • Learn from our mistakes (e.g. wetlands policy; public v. private investments) • Rethinking energy policies • Food safety and security

29. We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children Native American Proverb

30. Digging Deeper • Coates, Joseph. Wild ideas for future cities. The Bridge. 1999 • Coates, Joseph, John Mahaffie and Andy Hine. 2025. Oak Hill. 1996 • Coates, Joseph. What is a public policy issue? Interdisciplinary Science Reviews. 1979 • Friedman, Thomas L. The Lexus and the Olive Tree. Anchor Books, 2000 • Hamel, Gary and CK Prahalad. Competing for the Future. Harvard. 1996 • Hamel, Gary. Leading the Revolution. Harvard. 2000 • Korten, David. The Post-Corporate World. Kumarian Press. 2000 • Lash, Jonathon. Sustainable future communities. The Bridge. 1999 • Matathia, Ira and Marian Salzman. Next. Overlook Books. 1999 • Mazarr, Michael. Global Trends 2005: An owners manual for the next decade. St. Martin’s. 1999 • Putnam, Robert. Bowling Alone. Simon & Schuster. 2000. • Reich, Robert. The Future of Success, Vintage Books. 2000.

31. Thank You