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NYC's Water Security and the Epic Pluvial Masking

This article explores the potential impact of epic pluvial events on NYC's water security, using historical data and reconstructions. It examines the chronology and species replication in understanding drought history and its implications for the city's future challenges.

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NYC's Water Security and the Epic Pluvial Masking

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  1. Is an epic pluvial masking NYC’s water security? Andrew Bell Ed Cook Kevin Vranes

  2. Tiwanaku Empire Akkadian Empire

  3. NYC Data: NYC Dept. Env. Protection

  4. NYC Data: NYC Dept. Env. Protection

  5. NYC Ave May-Aug. Data: NCDC

  6. 12 species eastern hemlock chestnut oak pitch pine white oak eastern redcedar post oak pignut hickory sweet birch yellow-poplar shagbark hickory northern red oak black oak 32 chronologies

  7. David Meko Time-varying Reconstructions

  8. r2 = 66.2% May-Aug - Better at estimating wet years

  9. inst. data tacked onto end

  10. January NCEP Sea-level Pressure: 1948-2009

  11. 1568-1573 Drought: NADA v2

  12. Southern Appalachian Drought History NADA v2

  13. Mississippi Valley Drought History NADA v2

  14. Northeast US = extreme drought Northeast Climate Center

  15. Summary: • increased chronology replication helps, especially spatially • species replication helps as well - as much as chronology replication?

  16. Summary: • increased chronology replication helps, especially spatially • species replication helps as well - as much as chronology replication? • 500 yrs of NYC watershed drought history? • - NYC will be in a heap of trouble when a real/paleo drought hits!

  17. 1663-1666 Drought: NADA v2

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