Advanced Progress Monitoring – individuals and groups

1. Advanced Progress Monitoring – individuals and groups Presentation by, Ben Ditkowsky, Ph.D. and Stacey Weber, Ed. S.

2. Reading Trajectories Are Established Early • The probability of remaining a poor reader at the end of fourth grade, given a child was a poor reader at the end of first grade, was .88 .... the probability of remaining an average reader in fourth grade, given an average reading ability in first grade, was .87 (Juel, 1988) • Seventy-four percent (74%) of children who are poor readers in 3rd grade remain poor readers in 9th grade (Francis, et al, 1996) • Remedial reading is generally not very effective in making children more literate. The unavoidable conclusion, then, is that the most sensible way to improve remedial reading is to eliminate the need for it in the first place (Johnson & Allington, 1991, p. 1001)

3. The Trajectories of poor readers persist! • As many as 54% of students with difficulty in readingdropout of school prior to graduation (de Bettencourt & Zigmond, 1990) • Adjustment into adult life; According to Sinclair (1994), of students studied with reading difficulties62% of (drop-outs ) were arrested compared with only 15% of those who remained in school until successful graduation. • Three to 4times as likely to become teenage parents(Shaywitz, 2002) • Underemployment and unemployment were associated with difficulty in reading and graduation rates …As much as 3 times as likely to be unemployed (Goldstein, Murray & Edgar, 1997, 1998)

4. Consider two students In Fall These two students were essentially equivalent in terms of reading in the Fall of grade 3 FALL

5. Consider two students In Winter Small changes were beginning to show up in the data by winter WIN

6. Consider two students In Spring By Spring, one student had made categorical progress, the other had not. SPR

7. Consider two students Over the year (2005-06)

8. Consider two students Over the year (2005-06) • Both students began the year Below Basic • In winter one student had not made any progress, one student had made minimal progress • By Spring, one student had demonstrated an average gain of 1 word per week, the other demonstrated little gain all year Adequate Not Adequate

9. The Effect of Progress on DIBELS Exceeds Standards Meets Standards Below Standards Academic Warning

10. The Effect of Progress on DIBELS

11. Fall DIBELS (NAP Group) Exceeds Standards Meets Standards Below Standards Academic Warning

12. Fall DIBELS (AP Group) Exceeds Standards Meets Standards Below Standards Academic Warning

13. The Effects of Progress

14. BIG IDEAS • CBM (and DIBELS) is related to Outcomes on high stakes tests • Given the same score in Fall, a student who gains an average of 1 word per week over the course of a year can be expected to score better on high stakes tests, that is, … student improvement from Fall to Spring on DIBELS matters • CBM (and DIBELS) is related to Outcomes on high stakes tests • Given the same score in Fall, a student who gains an average of 1 word per week over the course of a year can be expected to score better on high stakes tests, that is, … student improvement from Fall to Spring on DIBELS matters

15. Progress Monitoring with dibels.uoregon.edu

16. Progress Monitoring with aimsweb.com

17. Monitoring Progress with Confidence Available free from MeasuredEffects.com

18. Do you see progress?You call ‘em

19. Do you see progress?You call ‘em

20. Do you see progress?You call ‘em

21. Do you see progress?You call ‘em

22. Do you see progress?You call ‘em

23. Do you see progress?You call ‘em

24. Do you see progress?You call ‘em

25. Do you see progress?You call ‘em

26. Do you see progress?You call ‘em

27. Adequate level and progress – Monitoring progress of groups • Adequate Level • NCLB is focused on measuring the percentage of students deemed to be making Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP measures level) • CBM and DIBELS predict outcomes on the state test (Snapshots of progress) • Adequate Progress • We can use CBM and DIBELS to examine progress toward AYP as defined by the state

28. How many correct words did 5th grade students read in one minute? How does the CBM score relate to how well they do on the ISAT? CBM is a measure of Reading? Mark read 175 words Dorothy read 225 words Sarah read 147 words Kelsey read 120 words

29. Setting up a chart to compare scores Before ISAT testing what we knew was the CBM score (CWPM). Exceeds Meets Below Warning Dorothy read 225 words Mark read 175 words Sarah read 147 words Kelsey read 120 words

30. Setting up a chart to compare scores

31. Students who read less than 120 correct words per minute She read 120 words correctly in a minute She obtained a score of 150 on ISAT Remember Kelsey? 100% of (62, 5th grade) students who read less than 120 words per minute were below state standards on ISAT

32. Students who read less than 130 correct words per minute 100% of (62, 5th grade) students who read less than 130 words per minute were below state standards on ISAT

33. Students who read less than 140 correct words per minute 77% of (62, 5th grade) students who read less than 140 words per minute were below state standards on ISAT

34. What can we infer about students who are not fluent readers and ISAT? (<150 cwpm) 75% of (62, 5th grade) students who read less than 150 words per minute were below state standards on ISAT

35. Now consider just the students who read more than 150 correct words per minute Remember Mark? 90% of (62, 5th grade) students who read more than 150 words per minute were above state standards on ISAT.

36. Caveat • Limitation: That was a small sample, from two schools in one district. • Solution: What about looking at data from 3 different school years, 3 different districts, with both the new and old ISAT

37. Correct = 90% Correct = 81% Correct = 71% Correct = 71% Correct = 83% Correct = 88%

38. Benchmarks over time function well to predict success CBM “Proficient” who met standards Fall 91% Winter 89% Spring 90% CBM “Below Basic” who DNM standards Fall 69% Winter 77% Spring 77%

39. We can use CBM and DIBELS to summarize adequate progress for the three tiers of instruction within RTI

40. Summary of Adequate Progress • Cut Scores for R-CBM and DORF have been derived for assessment 3 times per year. • When student are likely to meet standards, we might refer to them as proficient • When students are likely not to met standards, we might refer to them as below basic • There are some students whose performance is such that we do not know, we refer to them as questionable. • We know what scores we expect in Fall, Winter and Spring. • We can use this information to determine whether a school is making adequate progress, within a given tier, or as a whole.

41. Example - actual percentages meeting standards

42. Monitoring progress of groups: Below Basic

43. Monitoring progress of groups: Questionable Status

44. Monitoring progress of groups: Proficient Status

45. Monitoring Progress of all students • Notes. • In this example, most students who begin below basic remain below basic (88%) • Most students who begin in questionable status, do not make progress (25% made progress). • Most students who enter on track, stay on track (86%), but not all • Overall most students in this example did not demonstrate progress

46. Notes. • In this example, slightly more students were tested in the first window than the second • These snapshots indicate slighlty more students on track in the second window than the first • Much work remains for the students and staff in this example building