Mitigation at the Sector Level

1. Mitigation at the Sector Level

4. Emissions by End Use

5. How would you mitigate emissions from the following sectors? • Electricity? • Transportation? • Industrial manufacturing? • Land Use?

6. How would you mitigate emissions from the following sectors? Efficiency Fuel switching Reduce consumption Electricity? Transportation? Industrial manufacturing? Efficiency Product switching Reduce consumption Land Use

7. Should we be focusing on global mitigation or take a sector-by-sector approach? • We’ll come back to this after we cover the Kyoto Protocol

8. Wedges Concept

11. Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge. What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 1 GtC/yr Total = 25 Gigatons carbon 50 years

12. Nuclear Fission (1) 15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) 16 GtC/y Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Fuel Switching (1) Stabilization Stabilization Triangle Triangle CO2 Capture & Storage (3) 8 GtC/y Forest and Soil Storage (2) 2007 2057

13. A few caveats • Some of the proposals have moderate to significant environmental or political downsides • E.g., nuclear waste storage not yet resolved • Actual emissions reductions subject to dispute • E.g., some studies suggest that life cycle emissions of natural gas production from shale are greater than coal over 20-year period; biofuels another area of controversy

14. Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA Efficiency Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings E, T, H / $ Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge Sector s affected: E = Electricity, T =Transport, H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$

15. Fuel Switching Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey). A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today E, H / $

16. Carbon Capture & Storage • Implement CCS at • 800 GW coal electric plants or • 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or • 180 coal synfuels plants or • 10 times today’s capacity of hydrogen plants Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500. E, T, H / $$

17. Nuclear Electricity Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055 Graphic courtesy of NRC The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990. E/ $$

18. Wind Electricity Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity, OR Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel Photo courtesy of DOE A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30 E, T, H / $-$$

19. Solar Electricity Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054 Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times E / $$$

20. Biofuels Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times Photo courtesy of NREL Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops T, H / $$

21. Natural Sinks Eliminate tropical deforestation OR Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S. OR Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha) Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland B / $ Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO

22. International Treaties and the Climate Change Negotiations

23. Most Important Concepts Underlying International Lawmaking?? • State Sovereignty • Each state is a sovereign actor, and states will protect their sovereignty to the greatest extent when developing treaties • Consent • Must have evidence of consent to “bind” a state – whatever “binding” may mean – to an international obligation

24. The Climate Change Treaty Process and Politics • 2 Treaties • UNFCCC (1992) • Kyoto Protocol (1997) • = a protocol to the UNFCCC • UNFCCC provides the framework, Kyoto Protocol helps to implement it • Parties meet multiple times/year + have one official meeting each year = Conference of the Parties

25. The Politics • Developed v. developing • Divisions within developing countries • EU v. U.S. • Economies in transition

26. The Politics • Developed v. developing

30. The Politics • Developed v. developing • Historical emissions v. current and future emissions • Industrial emissions v. land use emissions • Wealth/development v. desire to develop • Cause of the harm v. will suffer much of the harm

31. The Politics • Divisions within developing countries • AOSIS (small island nations) • OPEC (oil producing nations) • China • India • Brazil + other heavily forested countries • Africa/ least developed countries

32. The Politics • Divisions within developing countries • AOSIS (small island nations) • Big GHG reductions + $ for adaptation • OPEC (oil producing nations) • No reductions + $ if lose oil production • China • Reductions only if does not affect growth – developed countries go first • India • Same as China

33. The Politics • Divisions within developing countries • Brazil + other heavily forested countries • Reductions from industrial sources, not forests • But if from reduced deforestation, want $ • Africa/ least developed countries • Want $ and development assistance

34. The Politics • EU v. U.S. • EU wants emissions reductions, but wants to achieve those reductions as a region, not on country-by-country basis • U.S. opposes emissions reductions, especially if developing countries like China do not have obligations

35. The Politics • Economies in transition (EITs) = countries that were part of the former Soviet Union • When the Soviet Union collapsed, so did their economies • They are “industrialized,” but have damaged economies • The have reduced emissions because of collapse • They don’t have any money

37. Economies in Transition – Hot Air

38. The Climate Change Treaty Process and Politics • When you consider the politics, it’s amazing the parties reached any agreement at all, but they did • UNFCCC

39. UNFCCC

40. UNFCCC • 1992 treaty • “Framework” treaty – designed to establish the basic structure and goals of the Parties • Often very vague about specifics

41. UNFCCC • Most important aspects • Objective = overall goal for the treaty • Divides parties into different categories • Establishes moderate commitments • Applies to 6 greenhouse gases • Requires parties to meet every year to assess whether the existing commitments will meet the objective

42. Art. 1 - Definitions – Key Terms • Emissions = release of GHGs and/or precursors into atmosphere over specified area/time • GHGs – not just carbon dioxide • Reservoir = component of climate system where GHGs are stored • Sink = process, activity, or mechanism which removes GHGs from atmosphere • Source = any process or activity which releases GHGs into atmosphere

43. Art. 2 - Objectives • Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. • within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner

44. Art. 4 - Commitments • All Parties, Annex I Parties, Annex II Parties • All = developed, developing, economies in transition • Annex I = developed + economies in transition • Annex II = developed

45. Art. 4 - Commitments • Developed • Europe, United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada • And former Soviet countries (EITs) • Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, etc. • Developing • Any other party – e.g., China, India, all countries in South America, Africa, most of Asia, Middle East

47. Art. 4.1 – All parties 1. All Parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities, shall:

48. Art. 4.1 – All parties (a) develop national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHGs (b) Develop programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change

49. Art. 4.1 – All Parties (c) promote and participate in technology transfer (d) promote sustainable management of sinks and reservoirs

50. Art. 4.1 – All Parties (j) communicate results to the Conference of the Parties