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UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY. Senior Level Orientation Course (SLOC) Table Top Exercise. THIS BRIEFING IS UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY. Agenda. Wargame Purpose Wargame Design Russia Capabilities (Threats) Space Cyber
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UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Senior Level Orientation Course(SLOC) Table Top Exercise THIS BRIEFING IS UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Agenda • Wargame Purpose • Wargame Design • Russia Capabilities (Threats) • Space • Cyber • Nuclear • Move One Situation Update • Open Discussions (Can go up to TS/SCI) UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Wargame Purpose • Convey the complexities of multi-domain warfare and the interdependent nature of AF capabilities. • Understand how Space, Cyber and Nuclear operations are integrated and essential for overall campaign success. • Discuss Russia’s capabilities, threats, and intentions in each area. • Possible impact that threats in the Space, Cyber, and Nuclear areas pose to future conflicts. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Wargame Design • Using a simplified, notional Russia scenario. • No Moves / No Adjudication! • All capabilities and threats are real world. • Three one-hour periods, each beginning with a Situation Update followed by a guided discussion. • Discussions will focus on overall integration and the interdependent nature of AF capabilities. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Russia Space Program • Maintains an inventory of 60-70 satellites on orbit, many of which have expired or have limited operational lives. • Many of these are intelligence satellites: imagery, radio-electronic, and electro-optical reconnaissance. • Long term plans to expand and update its military space capabilities. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Russia’s Counter-Space Capabilities (1) • PL-19 Direct Ascent missile. • Co-orbital Anti-Satellites (ASATs). • Rendezvous and Proximity (RPO) maneuver operations. • MIG-31BM carrying an ASAT missile. • High-altitude nuclear detonation. • The new S-500 surface-to-air missile system, capable of reaching altitudes up to 600 km (threat toLEO satellites). • Ground and air-based laser systems. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Russia’s Counter-Space Capabilities (2) • Airborne Laser platform (Beriev A-60) in development; can blind, dazzle or cause physical damage to satellites. • Ability to jam/deny satellite C2 links. • Robust GPS jamming capabilities. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Russia Cyber Capabilities (1) • Among the most advanced in the world. • Demonstrated capabilities in Ukraine, Georgia and Estonia. • Targeting electrical infrastructure with cyber disruptions in Ukraine. • Of particular concern is a Russian cyberattack on critical, key CONUS infrastructure. • In a rare alert, DHS Cyber Technical Alert-19-074A warned of Russian government targeting US energy and critical infrastructure. • Threats to civilian/military Industrial Control Systems (ICS) and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Russia Cyber Capabilities (2) • Developed and demonstrated a wide range of means. • Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) cyber attacks. • Jamming. • Interception. • Spoofing of enemy communications. • Aim is to deny/degrade/destroy the enemy’s military C2, socio-political system and, in the process, negatively impact their ability to wage war. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Russia’s Nuclear Posture • 25 Dec 2014 – Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or an attack involving “other weapons of mass destruction” against Russia or its allies, as well as in response to a conventional aggression against Russia “when the very existence of the state is in danger”. • Russia’s Anti/ballistic Missile and Early Warning systems. • Russia’s NC3 capabilities. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Russia’s Nuclear Capabilities • Robust nuclear strategic Triad: • Strategic Rocket Forces: Deploys ~280 missile systems with ~1000 warheads…”heavy” ICBMs as well as mobiles. • SSBNs: Three classes of submarines: Delta III and IV, plus the Borey-class; fleet includes xxx tubes and approx. xxx warheads. • Long-Range Aviation: Deploys 16 Tu-160s, 48 TU-95MSs and 12 Tu-95MSMs, with improving conv/nuc standoff capabilities. • All legs are being modernized….the top priority for Russia. • Russia also has large quantity of “tactical” nuclear weapons. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY SLIDE INTENIONALLY LEFT BLANK UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Senior Level Orientation Course(SLOC) Wargame Move One 8 Aug 19 UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Significant Events • There has been a period of mounting diplomatic tensions between Russia and the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. • Violent clashes have occurred between Pro-Russian and pro-western demonstrators in Poland and Lithuania. • The Russian media has increased the number and intensity of defamatory attacks on the Baltic states' domestic and foreign policies. • Cyber disruptions reported overwhelming websites of Lithuanian organizations, including Parliament, banks, ministries, newspapers, and broadcasters. • Russia announces VOSTOC-19, a large, joint exercise with Belarus. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY VOSTOK-19 • On 1 Aug, Russia announced VOSTOK-19, an annual joint military exercise with Belarus, involving 300,000 troops, 36,000 tanks and other vehicles, 1,000 aircraft, and 80 ships focusing on Central and Western Military Districts. • Official start is 10Aug 19 and ends on 24 Aug 19. • Russian forces are already moving toward Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania; a significant presence in Belarus near southeastern Lithuania border. • The surprising size and location of this exercise is creating tension and concern in the region; NATO officials are monitoring situation closely. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY VOSTOK-2019 Exercise Area UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Regional Concerns • Lithuania and Latvia gravely concerned with the massive Russian exercise 15nm from their borders. • Exercise is larger than their active duty militaries combined. • Lithuanian Armed Forces has 19,750 active duty personnel, Latvian National Armed Forces has 23,600 total personnel. • Both countries joined NATO in 2004 and would expect NATO support for any overt Russian intrusions into either country. • Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have signed a defense cooperation agreement with the US. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Significant Events Russian Military Activity • Increased fighter and ISR air presence in western areas. • ISR/HUMINT reveals increased naval activity ivo Port of Kaliningrad. • Combined TU-95/TU-160 flight of aircraft observed west of Kaliningrad. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Iskander-M Deployment • Russia has its nuclear-capable Iskander Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SS-26 Stone) in Kaliningrad. • Nuclear (50kt) and conventional. • Ballistic and cruise missile variants. • Can strike most of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland from locations in Kaliningrad or western Belarus. • Estimated 13 brigade sets imbedded with Russian Armed Forces moving west. • 12 Transporter-Erector-Launchers + 12 transloaders per brigade with 2 missiles per transloader. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Current NATO Presence • About 4,500 NATO troops are based in Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as a “tripwire” first line of defense. • Poland - US-led battalion with heavy armor; Mission Command Element at Poznan AB; Det 1 at Lask; Support Co at Powidz storage depot. • Estonia - UK-led battalion and troops from Denmark and France; Baltic Air Policing with 4 German Typhoon jets. • Latvia - Canadian-led battalion and troops from Albania, Italy, Poland, Spain and Slovenia; Baltic Air Policing with 6 Canadian CF-19s. • Lithuania - German-led NATO battalion; Baltic Air Policing with 4 Dutch F-16 jets. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY NATO / EU / US Reaction • Heightened level of NATO alert in all Baltic countries. • German military unable/not ready to support Article V (if requested) operations due to internal political dissention. • EU expresses concern with “aggressive” Russia actions. • CONUS air units preparing for deployment. • 14 x F-22s to Lithuania. • 14 x F-35As each to airbases in Poland and Romania. • Three additional E-3A aircraft to Germany. • 3 x KC-135Rs and 2 x KC-10s to RAF Mildenhall. • Cyber Combat Mission Teams (CMT) / Combat Support Teams (CST) “deployed in place” to support. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Cyber Events • RAF Mildenhall experiencing backflow issues with their fuel farm system; unable to transfer fuel; impacting tanker bridge and fighter moves. • Insider threat discovered by co-workers at Gunter Annex AL NOSC; individual possibly tied to fuel farm issues at Mildenhall. • Virus (malware) found within TPFDD (JOPES) system affecting follow-on forces; investigation in progress. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Space-Related Events • Sale of Russian rocket engines to US frozen (RD-190). • Rendezvous and Proximity Operations (RPO) activities increased; approaching Wide-Band Global SATCOM (WGS), Space Based IR System (SBIRS) and NRO satellites. • Older satellites detected moving out of previous defined orbits. • Indications and warnings observed at laser and satellite launch facilities. • SATCOM jammers deployed toward western Russia. • Cyber intrusions have targeted the satellite control networks. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Nuclear-Related Events • Special munitions activities observed in forward areas. • Iskander (SS-26) Missile System heightened activity in Kaliningrad. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Deterrence • What Deters Russia? • What Doesn’t? UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Cyber Actions – US? • Pre-emptive cyber actions? • Forward deployment of cyber forces? • Some are “deployed in place”. • What are the military/civil cyber interactions? (e.g. military dependence on ISP). • How should the CNMF forces posture? • What actions should 24th AF take? UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Space Actions – US? • Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program (GSSAP) and Space Based Surveillance System (SBSS) collections on high-value Russian satellites? • Request increased priority for tracking Russian satellites? • Increased intel collection of Russian SATCOM? • Increased request for Commercial/Coalition ISR satellite assets? • Increased request for Commercial SATCOM? • Tasking of ISR assets to track mobile Russian units? • Prepare/posture for implementation of Flex Power , SBIRS area of interest? • Pre-positioning of space control assets? UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Nuclear Actions – US (?) • UCP top priority for all CCMDs: ”Defend the Homeland.” • The homeland will be the foremost consideration…especially to include the nuclear equation. • Post-WW II experience with Great Power conflict. • Consequences of inadvertent crossing of redlines? • Guns of August (1914) • Russia’s stated nuclear doctrine. • Implications of the West’s conventional superiority on Russian decision-making? • World experience with limited nuclear conflicts? • Least-likely of the least-likely scenario…and most-likely of the least-likely…. • Once a NUDET occurs with anger, can escalation be controlled? • Who determines when a conflict is ends, the victor or the defeated? • So…with this in mind, what do we do at this point of the conflict with the nuclear equation at the forefront? • Nuc force generation? Conv/nuc bomber/tanker allocation? DCA posture? Increase exercises/tests (Glory Trip, etc)? Bomber CONUS-to-CONUS mission? NC3 posture? UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Questions? UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY SLIDE INTENIONALLY LEFT BLANK UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Senior Level Orientation Course(SLOC) Wargame Move Two (11 Aug 19) UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Significant Events • Three days have passed since our last briefing. • Four hours ago, according to HUMINT, Russian Army units that were “part of PRIVIYCHKA 2019”, crossed the borders into Lithuania and Latvia and appear to be moving into southern Estonia at this time. • Brigade-sized ground units supported by attack helicopters pushing forward; NATO Battalions overmatched but holding ground. • Additional Mig-31 and SU-27 activity observed at airfields in western Russia. • Early reports of air-to-air engagements between Mig-31s and Canadian CF-18s and Dutch F-16s; early report of one CF-18 shot down (not confirmed). • Latvia and Lithuania have just requested NATO Article V consultation for military assistance; Estonia expected to follow. • EUCOM RFF for significant numbers of Bombers, Tankers, C2 and Fighter aircraft. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Significant Events • Russia has just kicked off a surprise naval “Snap Ex”. • At least 37 warships and support vessels have been observed on their way out to the Barents Sea with 20 supporting aircraft. • This is the largest gathering of the Northern Fleet in 10 years. • Also, along the coast of the Kola Peninsula, a large number of different rocket- and artillery weapon systems and special equipment are being deployed. • Norway is concerned, they were not informed about the naval exercise. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Significant EventsUS/EU Actions • US anticipates that Article V applies. • EU condemns Russia’s invasion and voices support for NATO action. • US led Armored BN in Poland preparing to move north toward Belarus border. • Unilaterally moving Army’s 1st Armored Div along with other elements of III Corps from Fort Hood, Texas to Europe. • EUCOM CONPLAN executed; begins TPFFD flow into Europe. • Plans underway to reinforce NATO units under attack. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Cyber Events • There has been a cyber incident affecting both the F-22 and F-35 fleet; all F-22/F-35 aircraft have been temporarily grounded; investigation underway. • Patriot missile system in Poland displaying offset air picture – random effects from .1 to 1 km. • Gunter AFB “Insider” confessed to involvement with RAF Mildenhall fuel system outage; accepted bribe from Russian operative; fix underway. • National news reporting massive malware campaign targeting financial transfers and ATM networks of financial institutions within the US; denial of service attacks against public news websites; investigation underway. • Impacts to US infrastructure (ICS/SCADA). UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Space-Related Events • Russian satellites within 10km of WGS, SBIRS and NRO satellites; intent unknown. • Jamming against DSCS affecting SIPR. • Ground laser dazzlers against NRO IMINT satellites impacting our ability to track advancing enemy forces. • NATO frontline units experiencing severe GPS jamming; unable to coordinate fire maneuvers; GPS errors in excess of 1 km. • Mobile ASAT units deploying outside of garrison. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Nuclear-Related Events • Strategic forces conducting NC2/NC3 exercise to include Russian President. • Simultaneous test launch of Russian ICBMs, SLBMs, and ALCMs. • Iskander missile weapons systems no longer located (they were both in Kaliningrad and Belarus) due to Russian dazzling on our ISR systems and clandestine deployment CONOPS by Russians. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Cyber Actions – US (?) • CYBERCOM/DHS Teaming? • DoD Cyber precautions/actions? • US led global law enforcement offensive against suspected groups? • Military offensive cyber against Russian infrastructure? • Elevate defensive posture? • Increase private sector awareness? • How do we share information that is TS/SCI with private sector? • Who is in charge? UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Space Actions – US (?) • Consider satellite repositioning to confuse Russian Space Object Surveillance and Identification system (SOSI)? • Deploy Counter Communications System? • GPS products to support mission planning/operations (TACOPS)? • Execute GPS flex power (high C/A)? • Implement NAVWAR against GLONASS? • Request priority targeting of GPS/ISR Jamming Assets? • Request priority targeting of Ground Based Laser threats and mobile ASATs? UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Nuclear Actions – US (?) • The same questions remain…. • Nuc force generation? Conv/nuc bomber/tanker allocation? DCA posture? Increase exercises/tests (Glory Trip, etc)? Bomber CONUS-to-CONUS mission? NC3 posture? UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Questions? UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY SLIDE INTENIONALLY LEFT BLANK UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Senior Level Orientation Course(SLOC) Wargame Move Three (12 Aug 19) UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Significant Events • Three days have passed since our last briefing. • Four hours ago, according to HUMINT, Russian Army units that were “part of PRIVIYCHKA 2019”, crossed the borders into Lithuania and Latvia and appear to be moving into southern Estonia at this time. • Brigade-sized ground units supported by attack helicopters pushing forward; NATO Battalions overmatched but holding ground. • Additional Mig-31 and SU-27 activity observed at airfields in western Russia. • Early reports of air-to-air engagements between Mig-31s and Canadian CF-18s and Dutch F-16s; early report of one CF-18 shot down (not confirmed). • Latvia and Lithuania have just requested NATO Article V consultation for military assistance; Estonia expected to follow. • EUCOM RFF for significant numbers of Bombers, Tankers, C2 and Fighter aircraft. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Significant Events • Russia has just kicked off a surprise naval “Snap Ex”. • At least 37 warships and support vessels have been observed on their way out to the Barents Sea with 20 supporting aircraft. • This is the largest gathering of the Northern Fleet in 10 years. • Also, along the coast of the Kola Peninsula, a large number of different rocket- and artillery weapon systems and special equipment are being deployed. • Norway is concerned, they were not informed about the naval exercise. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Significant EventsUS/EU Actions • US anticipates that Article V applies. • EU condemns Russia’s invasion and voices support for NATO action. • US led Armored BN in Poland preparing to move north toward Belarus border. • Unilaterally moving Army’s 1st Armored Div along with other elements of III Corps from Fort Hood, Texas to Europe. • EUCOM CONPLAN executed; begins TPFFD flow into Europe. • Plans underway to reinforce NATO units under attack. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Cyber Events • There has been a cyber incident affecting both the F-22 and F-35 fleet; all F-22/F-35 aircraft have been temporarily grounded; investigation underway. • Patriot missile system in Poland displaying offset air picture – random effects from .1 to 1 km. • Gunter AFB “Insider” confessed to involvement with RAF Mildenhall fuel system outage; accepted bribe from Russian operative; fix underway. • National news reporting massive malware campaign targeting financial transfers and ATM networks of financial institutions within the US; denial of service attacks against public news websites; investigation underway. • Impacts to US infrastructure (ICS/SCADA). UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Space-Related Events • Russian satellites within 10km of WGS, SBIRS and NRO satellites; intent unknown. • Jamming against DSCS affecting SIPR. • Ground laser dazzlers against NRO IMINT satellites impacting our ability to track advancing enemy forces. • NATO frontline units experiencing severe GPS jamming; unable to coordinate fire maneuvers; GPS errors in excess of 1 km. • Mobile ASAT units deploying outside of garrison. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Nuclear-Related Events • Strategic forces conducting NC2/NC3 exercise to include Russian President. • Simultaneous test launch of Russian ICBMs, SLBMs, and ALCMs. • Iskander missile weapons systems no longer located (they were both in Kaliningrad and Belarus) due to Russian dazzling on our ISR systems and clandestine deployment CONOPS by Russians. UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY
UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY Cyber Actions – US (?) • CYBERCOM/DHS Teaming? • DoD Cyber precautions/actions? • US led global law enforcement offensive against suspected groups? • Military offensive cyber against Russian infrastructure? • Elevate defensive posture? • Increase private sector awareness? • How do we share information that is TS/SCI with private sector? • Who is in charge? UNCLASSIFIED FOR WARGAMING PURPOSES ONLY