Application of Weather & Climate forecast in Power System

1. Application of Weather & Climate forecast in Power System

3. Hydro Coal Indian Grid…Large Footprint Wind and Solar Courtesy: NASA International Interconnections High growth Nepal Bhutan • Demand met – 175590 MW on 18th Sep 2018 • Energy met – 3925 MU on 19th Sep 2018 • Hydro Generation – 741 MU on 31st Aug 2018 • Solar Generation – 116.8 MU on 28th Oct 2018 1400 MW import 600 MW export 3 MW export 1200 MW export Myanmar 3 Bangladesh

4. Renewables on the Rise…MW to GW Renewables CAGR ~ 18 % 175 GW by 2022 Solar CAGR ~ 67 % (2014-17) Wind CAGR ~ 13 % (2014-17) Installed Capacity –as on 31 Dec’18 All India 349.28 GW Thermal 223.02 GW Hydro 45.39 GW Nuclear 6.78 GW RE 74.08 Solar Potential ~ 750 GW (4-7 kWh per sq. m per day) Wind Potential ~ 100 GW (at 80 m hub- height) Solar Cities~ 60 Nos. Green Energy Corridors Solar Parks – 40 GW National Offshore Wind Energy Policy & wind and Solar Hybrid policy Solar RPO ~ 8 % of total generation by 2022 (Excluding Hydro) Wind Atlas Wind Reverse Bidding ~ Rs. 2.43/kWh Solar PV Reverse Bidding ~ Rs. 2.44/kWh

5. Variability handling in today’s Renewable Energy scenario Hourly thermal changes 6-8 GW Hourly load changes 12-15 GW Plant Load Factors fallen from 77.5% in 2009-10 to 60.0% in 2016-17 Hourly hydro changes 6-10 GW

6. Typical All India Load Pattern Typical Ramp rate of 250 MW/min Special Days ~ 500 MW/min

7. Typical All India Demand Pattern Monsoon Summer Winter

8. Impact of Weather on Power System • Peak Summer Period (April-June) • High Temperature – Increase in Demand due to Weather beating Loads • Dust-storms - Load crash, High voltage • Agricultural Demand due to ‘Kharif crop’ • Monsoon Period (July-Sept) • Widespread rains- sudden load crash & high voltage • Sudden hydro generation outage - due to high silt content • Winter Period (Dec-Feb) • Agricultural Demand due to ‘Ravi Crop’ • Fog/smog • Demand due to use of Heating equipments • Cyclones • Power outages, damage to transmission & distribution network • Solar Eclipse • Impact on Solar Generation

9. POSOCO-IMD Collaboration MOU signed on 18th May,2015 between India Meteorological Department(IMD) and Power System Operation Corporation(POSOCO) Objective of MOU: Weather information provided by IMD shall be used by the Power System Operators across India for better management of Indian Power System.

10. Load crash due to inclement weather 11000 MW Load Crash

11. Impact of Different Weather phenomena on Power system

13. Use of Weather Variables in Power System

14. Power Output of Wind Turbine

15. Solar Energy Dependency on weather variable • Global Horizontal Irradiance: Total amount of Radiation received by a surface Horizontal to the Ground. • Direct Normal Irradiance : Amount of Solar radiation received per unit area by a surface that is normal to the incoming straight line solar rays • Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance: Amount of Solar Radiance received per unit area by a surface that is scattered by molecules and particles in Atmosphere comes equally from all directions

16. Effect of Cloud on Solar Power output

18. Solar Eclipse Solar Eclipse 26th Dec 2019 and 21st June 2020 Shall affect the Solar Generation Source: Evaluating the Impact of the 2017 Solar Eclipse on U.S. Western Interconnection Operations

19. Minimizing Impact on Power System • Prior knowledge of Weather Conditions • Demand estimation • Generation Optimization • Maintenance scheduling of generating units and transmission lines • Issuance of Advisory in case of warning • Power Generation Increase/Decrease • Assessment of Impact on Power Transmission lines • Simulation Studies • Better Plan for early restoration

20. Radar Image for Rain/Thunderstorm Monitoring • Thunderstorms: • A likely phenomena during summers • Leads to Load Crash • Excursion in Voltage and Frequency 100 km Boundary 50 km Boundary Rain/Thunderstorm

21. Radar Image for Rain/Thunderstorm Monitoring

22. Radar Image for Rain/Thunderstorm Monitoring

23. Rajasthan Haryana Uttar Pradesh 50.05 49.90 • Near Real time Radar image helped in Timely Reduction of Generation in State Control area/ISGS Generation, RRAS (Reserves Regulation Ancillary Services) Regulation leading to better Load Generation balance in the Grid

24. CycloneGaja • Cyclonic Gaja made landfall in Nagapattinam district of Tamil Nadu around 1:40 am on 16th November 2018 • All the Control Centresreferred the reports generated by IMD and closely monitored the RADAR/Satellite Pictures available on the Weather Portal

25. Gaga Cyclone:- Precautions Taken • System parameters of following Substations were closely monitored i) 400kV Sriperumbudur S/s ii) 400kV Nagapattinam S/s iii) 400kV SV Chattram S/s iv) 400kV ILFS S/s, v) 400kV Kalivendapattu S/s, vi) 400kV Trichy S/s, vii) 400kV Neyveli S/s viii) 400kV Pondicherry S/s • Reactors were made available to control voltages • All the outages were deferred in East Chennai, Nagapattinam area, Neyveli area and Pondicheryarea • Followings units were hand tripped in anticipation of reduction in demand: • 1. NCTPS -210 MW • 2. NCTPS Stage-2 – 600 MW • 3. STCMS (IPP) – 250MW Close monitoring of cyclone helped in controlling the System parameters and restoration of power supply in the affected area.

26. FOG Monitoring using Satellite Images FOG FOG FOG Fog Coupled with Pollution leads To tripping of EHV lines

27. Demand Management Using Meteogram, Wind and Rain Forecast • Meteogram, wind and rain forecast for 27/28/29-05-2017 helped in better load assessment of UP control area by U.P. State Load Despatch Centre. • As anticipated, UP demand went down from 19000 MW to 17000 MW due to change in weather conditions. • Accordingly, STOA & purchase from Power Exchange of the order of 2000 MW was reduced. i.e Backing down of approximately 13 MU of costly thermal generation .

28. Benefit achieved by BSES Load Crash of around 450 MW

29. Savings by BSES

30. POSOCO-IMD Collaboration • Workshops carried out by IMD in all the Regions (July 2015 to September 2015) • Weather Portal for Power Sector was developed using readily available products of IMD (March to June 2017) • Presentation on Weather Portal in OCC/RPC/Special meetings • Workshop on Meteorology for system operators held on 27th -28th September 2018

31. Weather Portal For Power Sectorhttp://amssdelhi.gov.in/NRLDC/index.html The Weather portals for all the 5 regions have been developed & made operational : • NRLDC -14.03.2017 • NERDC -29.04.2017 • SRLDC - 01.05.2017 • ERLDC - 05.05.2017 • WRLDC- 01.06.2017 Weather Portal for Power Sector has been developed using readily available products of IMD. Weather information provided on the Portal shall be used by the Power System Operators across India for better management of Indian Power System.

32. Weather Portal For Power Sector http://amssdelhi.gov.in/NRLDC/index.html • Hon’ble Minister of State (IC) for Power and New & Renewable Energy ShriPiyushGoyal launched POSOCO-IMD Weather Portal for Power Sector on 23rd June 2017

33. Reference document developed to facilitate enhanced utilisation Of the Weather portal in all Spheres of Power Sector Hon’ble Minister of State (IC) for Power and New & Renewable Energy released the reference document on “Weather Information Portal for Indian Power System” on 29th August 2019.

34. Road Ahead • Demand Forecasting /RE forecasting • Availability of historical weather data and real time observations • Solar irradiance and Wind Speed forecast (at Hub height) • Weather Bulletin for Power Sector • Nowcasting, Day ahead, Extended range forecast • Generation Resource Planning • Maintenance scheduling of Thermal generators/Transmission line outage • Power procurement by distribution companies • Sale /Purchase on day ahead basis in Power exchange

35. Road Ahead • RADAR/Satellite image may be layered with Topographical Maps, Transmission lines, Highways, State boundaries, Cities and Weather Warnings • Rainfall estimate in catchment area of hydro plants for inflow forecasting /silt forecasting

36. Let us build India as a Weather-ready Nation • Agriculture • Irrigation • Shipping • Aviation • offshore oil Exploration etc. • Power Sector • मौसम की भविष्यवाणी अच्छी है • 24x7 बिजली उपलब्ध है Our Customers are 130 crore Indians • फसल अच्छी होगी

37. धन्यवाद

38. Diversity – National & International Typical All India Load Curve Hydro Summer Wind Monsoon Morning & Evening Peak @ 500 – 600 MW/min for 1 hour Seasonal Variation Diurnal Variation Solar Pumped Hydro Winter