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PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY. What are my chances?. What is Probability?.

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PROBABILITY

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  1. PROBABILITY What are my chances?

  2. What is Probability? • Probability is everywhere. Every time we play a game, we take a chance at winning or losing. Every time we flip a coin, roll dice, play cards, or play games like twister, we are using probability to see our chances. Let’s see how these outcomes affect us. IntroPlanGamesOutcomesCompareMake your ownScore

  3. The Plan • Make predictions of probability games • Play probability games • Find outcomes and probabilities • Compare predictions and results • Design own probability game IntroPlanGamesOutcomesCompareMake your ownScore

  4. Pick a game & make prediction • List game websites • worksheet to go with each game played – Print first • Various Games • Roll the Dice • Find the probability of the fish • Toss the coin • Probability Cards • Use the spinner to win • Find the green balls • Find the prize under the door IntroPlanGamesOutcomesCompareMake your ownScore

  5. Outcomes & Probabilities • Find number of outcomes • Outcome = result of the game • Find the probability of wins, colors, choices • Probability = chance or likelihood of an outcome • Probability of wanted outcome = P (w) = # of wanted outcomes / # of total outcomes IntroPlanGamesOutcomesCompareMake your ownScore

  6. Example of Game Table IntroPlanGamesOutcomesCompareMake your ownScore

  7. Compare Prediction & Result • Predict how many outcomes would occur for 100 and 5000 games • Play the game again • Was your prediction the same as the result? • Was your prediction the same as the probability? IntroPlanGamesOutcomesCompareMake your ownScore

  8. Your Turn • DESIGN A GAME • Based on the games you played, create your own game with dice, cards, colors, etc • Explain how your game involves probability • Predict which player would win your game • Color and decorate your game IntroPlanGamesOutcomesCompareMake your ownScore

  9. What do I score? • 10 points for each day of predicting probability games • 10 points for each day recording results of games • 10 points for comparing results and predictions • 50 points for game designed • 10 points for showing probability with dice, cards, or a spinner • 10 points for explaining how probability is used in your game • 10 points for showing your prediction of the winner of your game • 10 points for creativity (color and design) • 10 points for turning in on time IntroPlanGamesOutcomesCompareMake your ownScore

  10. Let's take a chance! IntroPlanGamesOutcomesCompareMake your ownScore

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