The uncertainty road

Aug 06, 2014

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The uncertainty road. Uncertainty Blend 2008+. “The 2008 Trend Map”.

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The uncertainty road

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The uncertainty road Uncertainty Blend 2008+
“The 2008 Trend Map”

Uncertainty surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty

Uncertainty surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty. Todd Little. “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra. IEEE Software, May/June 2006. When will we get the requirements?. All in good time, my little pretty, all in good time.

590 views • 30 slides

Uncertainty

Learning Objectives. Uncertainty. To appreciate that all physical readings contain may contain errors and hence there is uncertainty To be able to conduct basic uncertainty calculations To be able to use key terms such as accurate, precise and reliable correctly.

344 views • 12 slides

Uncertainty

Uncertainty. Chapter 13. Outline. Uncertainty Probability Syntax and Semantics Inference Independence and Bayes' Rule. Uncertainty. Let action A t = leave for airport t minutes before flight Will A t get me there on time? Problems:

448 views • 24 slides

Uncertainty

Uncertainty. Introducation. This chapter talk about: uncertainty discusses its principles cases and the sources of geographic uncertainty The ways in which they operate in GIS . Techniques for developing uncertainty in GIS.

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Uncertainty

Uncertainty. www.onealchurchofchrist.org. All have concerns over our uncertain future in many areas. Family? Whom should I marry? Will they be faithful? Care for aging parents, relatives? Responsibilities in providing? Work? What abilities do I have?

440 views • 23 slides

Uncertainty

Psychology of Personal Decision-Making. Uncertainty. Pascal. “It is not certain that everything is uncertain”. Agenda. Uncertainty !. A perplexing thought?. “If we can’t be certain about future consequences of alternatives, how can we be confident we choose best?”. What to do?.

384 views • 26 slides

Uncertainty

Uncertainty. Everyday reasoning and decision making is based on uncertain evidence and inferences. Classical logic only allows conclusions to be strictly true or strictly false We need to account for this uncertainty and the need to weigh and combine conflicting evidence. .

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Uncertainty

Uncertainty. There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know. Restoration of Goods and Services

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Uncertainty

Uncertainty. Chapter 13. Uncertainty. Let action A t = leave for airport t minutes before flight Will A t get me there on time? Problems: partial observability (road state, other drivers' plans, noisy sensors) uncertainty in action outcomes (flat tire, etc.)

393 views • 26 slides

Uncertainty in Uncertainty

Uncertainty in Uncertainty. Uncertainty in Uncertainty. Within a factor of 2. Impact of noise on precision; applications to GPS data in New Madrid Seismic Zone. GIPSY Processing of GPS; central US Short tutorial Estimating the background noise from GPS

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Uncertainty estimates and guidance for road transport emission calculations

Uncertainty estimates and guidance for road transport emission calculations A JRC/IES project performed by EMISIA SA Leon Ntziachristos Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics, Aristotle University Thessaloniki Charis Kouridis, Dimitrios Gktazoflias, Ioannis Kioutsioukis EMISIA SA, Thessaloniki

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COSIMA-ROAD - Modelling Decision Support and Uncertainty using @RISK

COSIMA-ROAD - Modelling Decision Support and Uncertainty using @RISK. About me. Ph.d. Student, M.Sc. from the Technical University of Denmark – finishes in 2008 Half way through my Ph.d. study entitled: Optimization of Decision Support concerning Large Scale Infrastructure Projects

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The Uncertainty Principle

Published in NDC Magazine (2009).

1.32k views • 1 slides

Uncertainty

283 views • 23 slides

Uncertainty

Uncertainty. Logical approach problem: we do not always know complete truth about the environment Example: Leave(t) = leave for airport t minutes before flight Query: ?. Problems. Why can’t we determine t exactly? Partial observability road state, other drivers’ plans

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Uncertainty

279 views • 26 slides

Uncertainty

Chapter 13. Uncertainty. Outline. Uncertainty Probability Syntax and Semantics Inference Independence and Bayes' Rule. Uncertainty. Let action A t = leave for airport t minutes before flight Will A t get me there on time? Problems:

274 views • 24 slides

Uncertainty

Uncertainty. CHAPTER 13 Oliver Schulte Summer 2011. Environments with Uncertainty. Fully Observable. yes. no. Deterministic. no. yes. Certainty: Search. Uncertainty. Outline. Uncertainty and Rationality Probability Syntax and Semantics Inference Rules. Motivation.

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Uncertainty

Uncertainty. How “certain” of the data are we? How much “error” does it contain? Also known as: Quality Assurance / Quality Control QAQC. Definitions. Rigor Manage uncertainty from collection to publication and dissemination Due diligence Document the uncertainties as best you can.

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Uncertainty

Probabilities and Belief Networks. Uncertainty. Burglary. Earthquake. P(B)=.001. P(E)=.002. B E | P(A) T T | .95 T F | .94 F T | .29 F F | .001. Alarm. JohnCalls. A | P(J) T | .90 F | .05. A | P(M) T | .70 F | .01. MaryCalls.

348 views • 32 slides

Uncertainty

Uncertainty. Chapter 13. Uncertainty. Let action A t = leave for airport t minutes before flight Will A t get me there on time? Problems: partial observability (road state, other drivers' plans, etc.) noisy sensors (traffic reports) uncertainty in action outcomes (flat tire, etc.)

293 views • 26 slides

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