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Product Support Mr. Chris Burns. Mission. Trends. Focus. Opportunities. June 10, 2010. Mission. Manages centralized product support program for commissaries worldwide
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Product Support Mr. Chris Burns Mission Trends Focus Opportunities June 10, 2010
Manages centralized product support program for commissaries worldwide Manages Agency’s worldwide sales & customer savings programs including: Merchandising – Promotion – Marketing - Shelving reset Distribution - Transportation Cataloging - Pricing Guard/Reserve On-Site Sales program Functional store support & proponent for PS business systems for commissaries & CDC’s worldwide Acquisition support for all resale items Added mission for Europe due to diminishing support Sales Directorate Mission
Trends • Consumer Price Index – Food at Home • Inflation and Deflation information • Consumer Trends • DeCA & Industry Departmental Sales Comparisons • Category Comparisons • Top 20 Categories by DeCA 2010 Sales • Coupons
Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Fiscal Year Food at Home Index Values A falling CPI Food At Home Index – DeCA hasn’t seen this before! Note: Values are Arithmetic Average of October – September Index Values (Source BLS Food At Home All Urban Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Table), FY 2010 thru April
CPI Food at Home – Monthly Compare FY 2010 vs. FY 2009 The deflationary trend appears to be ending! -0.02% -2.8% -2.9% -2.4% -2.0% -1.5% -0.7%
Top Consumer Goods Trends in 2010 • Restraint remains the new normal – at home matters most • Value is top priority • Store Brand growth continues • Grocery consolidation intensifies • Assortment wars escalate, product assortment is point of differentiation • Winning brands are innovative & different • Spending on healthy items is a solid measure of consumer confidence • Manufacturers get stingy with trade promotion spending • Direct to consumer options thrive
Department Sales – DeCA vs. Industry (Nielsen Data – CONUS EX AK/HI 52 weeks ending 05/16/2010 vs. PY) Total sales for all DeCA CONUS UPC Departments - last 52 weeks was $3,816M - this was down -2.51% vs. +0.19% for industry
Department Sales – DeCA vs. Industry(Continued) (Nielsen Data – CONUS EX AK/HI 52 weeks ending 05/16/2010 vs. PY)
Top 20 CONUS Categories by Sales Source: Nielsen RMS
Top 20 CONUS Categories by Sales (Continued) Source: Nielsen RMS
2009 U.S. Coupon Redemption Rankings Source: NCH Marketing Services, Inc.
Focus Areas • Savings • Sales • Basket Size • Guard & Reserve Sales • Customers • Category Management • Vendor Stocking
Savings (after Tax and Surcharge) • Scan Data based on 26 weeks with Wal-Mart factor included • Interim Survey designed to give general information • Interim survey used only 6 stores for CONUS Meat and Produce vs. 30 stores in formal study. • Also, mini survey did not include OCONUS survey as done in formal annual survey
Sales Directorate serves all Stores – Small & Large 138 smaller stores (54.3%) in mostly remote or overseas locations deliver 20% of sales 39 (15.4%) of the largest stores generate 40% of total sales % of Sales % of Stores
Monthly Sales Comparisons vs. Prior Year *December 2009 was up 1.0% over December 2008 only because December 26, 2008 was Federal Holiday lowering December 2008 sales **February 2008 had 29 days, thus February 2009, even though down 0.5% was still a high growth month (if comparing 28 days)
Guard and Reserve Sales Growth Update $ Per Customer $ Per Event
Commissary Sales FY 1993 thru FY 2009 +2.9% +5.0% -3.7% +2.2% -5.6% +0.9% -2.3% +2.5% -1.2% +3.9% -3.3% +1.9% +1.5% -0.0% +0.9% -1.5% -3.9% Stores 385 363 332 313 308 299 296 292 290 281 276 275 273 268 264 260 254 FYTD 2010 Sales through April are $3.43B which is down 2.33% from FY 2009
Our Goal… $6 Billion Sales in 2011
What will it take to achieve $6 Billion in Sales in FY 2011? • Increase of about 1.7% over FY 2010 • About +$100M increase will be needed • Any one of these factors would do it: • About ½ item more per basket (29.5 to 30) • 19 more customers/day at average store • About 4 cent increase in average item price (from about $2.24 to $2.28) • About a $0.69 increase in basket size • Based on 94.75M transactions/yr we would need $63.32 basket size (up from $62.63 FYTD 2010) "It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results." – Warren Buffett
Commissary Customers FY 1993 thru FY 2009 -4.6% -5.2% -0.8% -6.3% +1.8% +1.9% +0.1% +0.5% +1.1% +0.2% -2.1% +1.2% -5.1% -1.1% +1.6% -2.5% Stores 385 363 332 313 308 299 296 292 290 281 276 275 273 268 264 260 254 FY 2010 Customers through April are 54.81M which is down 0.2% from FY 2009
Our Goal… 100M Customers in 2012
What will it take to achieve 100M Customers? • Growth in 2 years = 5M Customers • FY 2011: 2.5 Million or +2.6% • FY 2012: 2.5 Million or +2.6%
Category Management • Ensure Reviews are: • Standardized, fair, consistent across all categories • Ensure we have: • Premium, mid, value lines in all categories that make sense • Do reviews at strategically right time • Know process timeline - preclude lost sales • The “right” number of reviews each year • Optimize SKUs • Right product - right time - right price • Item savings meet category goals
Where we were: Conducted a store web-base survey (at 183 commissaries) Survey period – October 2008 – April 2009 Tracked top 33 manufacturer’s performance Buyers/Category Managers shared results with business partners Where we are: Conducting a follow-up survey Survey periods – March – May 2010 Compare survey results Where we are going: Continue team approach to improve the process Bottom Line…It’s all about getting the products on the shelf Vendor Stocking
Opportunities • Capturing more of Patrons’ Shopping $ • Meat & Produce Focus • Promotions • Store Hours • Target Thursday – Sunday • Communication
DeCA Trade Area (Excl. AK & HI) Research Design • Source: The Nielsen Company Homescan panel of 100,000+ in-home scanning households that demographically & geographically represents Total DeCA Trade Area • 1,700 Commissary Shoppers • 2,500 Eligible Shoppers • Period: Annual 2009 • (52 Weeks Ending 12/26/09) • Volume: Total Store Dollars (UPC Coded Products) • Geography: DeCA Total Trade Area Page 36 Source: Nielsen Homescan 2009
DeCA Shoppers Spend more in Commissaries than in any other Specific Channel - 1.4 Source: Nielsen Homescan 2009 Cross Outlet Facts
Commissary frequency & basket size is down slightly Source: Nielsen Homescan 2009 Cross Outlet Facts
When a Heavy Commissary Shopper is not shopping in the Commissary, they are shopping… -0.7 Source: Nielsen Homescan 2009 Cross Outlet Facts
When a Light Commissary Shopper is not shopping in the Commissary, they are shopping… -1.6 • Light Shoppers share is 2x in Wal-Mart compared to Heavy Shoppers Source: Nielsen Homescan 2009 Cross Outlet Facts
DeCA’s Heavy & Light Shopper Demographics 21% of the Light shoppers are under 35 years old Source: Nielsen Homescan 2009, Account Shopper Profiler
DeCA’s Heavy & Light Shopper Demographics Source: Nielsen Homescan 2009, Account Shopper Profiler
DeCA’s Heavy & Light Shopper Demographics Overall Nielsen Homescan panel of all commissary shoppers (combined heavy and light shoppers) has White: 63%, African American 22%, Asian 5%, Hispanic 12% Source: Nielsen Homescan 2009, Account Shopper Profiler
61% 67% DeCA’s Heavy & Light Shopper Demographics Source: Nielsen Homescan 2009, Account Shopper Profiler
DeCA’s Shoppers increased trips to Wal-Mart & Safeway Continue to offer club packs in prominent locations Focus on destination categories (milk, bread etc.) Greatest cross-spending threat in Mass, Supercenters & Club Identify top selling items within these channels Monitor pricing at competition Focus on converting light shoppers to heavy 25% of DeCA’s light shoppers are African American – why? Determine reasons and convert more to heavy shoppers Communicate value and benefits to convey the message “Commissary It’s Worth the Trip” Working with Nielsen to determine zip codes of 2,500 persons in Homescan panel Opportunities from Nielsen Homescan Data
Opportunities • Continued Focus on Meat & Produce • High savings & quality = a reason to shop commissaries! • Build a meal around Health & wellness
Meal Solutions Promotion Develop Product Image USDA Choice & Targeted USDA Select “Choice Meats for select customers” HMR Test in Meat Department 24 week test period +8% in dollars & +4% in units 23 Fresh Meat Promotions Reflective of our top 10 processed items Core Merchandising Based on individual store top 20 processed items Meat Department Opportunities
Consumers are focusing on health and value Health Educate patrons on the health benefits of FF&V FF&V offer healthy/convenient options for ANY meal or snack Value Focus on promotions, build big and up front Utilize “SALE” signage to draw their attention Consumers are preparing meals at home Offer & provide meal solutions Young consumers - fastest growing segment Target younger consumers with FF&V Market organic produce Produce Department Opportunities
Produce Department Opportunities • DeCA Plant/Flower sales average slightly less than $6M/yr • Incremental sales that won’t cannibalize other categories! FY 2011 GOAL = $10 MILLION! See below… Lots of untapped Sales!!!
Opportunities • Right promotions to attract patrons • In between pay week focus • In & out items, treasure hunt etc. • Thanksgiving & Christmas • Win the Holidays • Keep authorized customers in commissary • Case lot sales – relook/refine • May Case Lot Sale and Family Fun Fitness Festival – THANKS for your support! • Cross merchandising opportunities • Okay to test new things! • Regional items