Principles of Systems Dynamics Modeling and Analysis

2. Principles of Systems DynamicsModeling and Analysis Pål I. Davidsen pal.davidsen@geog.uib.no Department of Geography, University of Bergen, N-5020 Bergen, fax. 55 584107 tel. 55 584134

3. Backlog Backlog Management Knowledge elicitation System Dynamics Problem solving Problem identification Management Knowledge dissemination

4. Structure Behavior Events

5. Structure (underlying causes) Behavior (dynamics) Events (symptoms)

6. Decision Making Events (symptoms) Behavior (dynamics) Structure (underlying causes)

7. Decision Making Events (symptoms) Behavior (dynamics) Policy Design Structure (underlying causes)

8. Events (symptoms) Behavior (dynamics) Policy Design Structure (underlying causes)

9. Behavior Policy Design Structure

10. Policy Design Behavior Structure

11. Policy Policy Design Design Behavior Behavior Structure Structure

12. Policy Policy Policy Design Design Design Behavior Behavior Behavior Structure Structure Structure

13. Policy Policy Policy Design Design Design Behavior Behavior Behavior Structure Structure Structure Strategy Development

14. Point of Departure:Problembehavior

15. t

16. t Identify:Underlying ProblemStructure

17. t

18. t Identify:New SolutionStructure

19. t

20. t Goal:Desiredbehavior

21. t t

22. t t Problembehavior Desiredbehavior Hypothesis Development & Testing Underlying ProblemStructure New SolutionStructure

23. Strategy Development => System dynamics a problem-oriented multidisciplinary approach

24. t Problembehavior The model shouldgeneratethe original behaviorfor the right reasons Underlying ProblemStructure

25. t Desiredbehavior =>The model willgeneratethe desired behaviorfor the right reasons New SolutionStructure

26. t t The model shouldexplainnot “just”predict

27. t t The model mustconstitute acausal feedback theory

28. Strategy Development Behavior Structure

29. Behavior Structure

30. Behavior Structure

31. Behavior Structure

32. Behavior Structure

33. System Dynamics:Identify, understand, and utilizethe relationship: Behavior Structure

34. System Dynamics:Identify, understand, and utilizethe relationship: Behavior Structure incomplex, dynamic systems

35. Complexity S D Simplicity

36. Realism S D Abstraction

37. Realism It is better to find … Abstraction

38. … a satisfying solution to a problem that exists … than … an optimal solution to a non-existing problem

39. MaintainingRealism

40. We must not onlymodel explicitly “the plumbing of the system”

41. We need to describe how we; Make observationsForm expectations Establish attitudes Act on incentives (decide)

42. We need to differentiate between; • Actual • Observed • Confirmed • Projected • Desired • Expected • magnitudes

43. Actual Productivity Perceived Productivity Exploration Efforts Petroleum Exploration Reported Productivity Ideal Discoveries Estimated Productivity Estimated Discoveries Desired Discoveries

44. Nominal Productivity Actual Productivity Perceived Productivity Productivity Incentives Exploration Efforts Petroleum Exploration Reported Productivity Desired Productivity Ideal Discoveries Estimated Productivity Estimated Discoveries Desired Discoveries

45. Nominal Productivity Actual Productivity Perceived Productivity Productivity Incentives Exploration Efforts Petroleum Exploration Reported Productivity Desired Productivity Ideal Discoveries Estimated Productivity Estimated Discoveries Desired Discoveries

46. System Dynamics:Identify, understand, and utilizethe relationship: Behavior Structure incomplex, dynamic systems

47. Feedback Accumulation Complexity Non-linearity

48. Accumulations ≡ Latencies / Delays Feedbacks Non-linearities Complexity a synergy of

49. Complexity Accumulations ≡ Latencies/ Delays … the origin of dynamics

50. Causality playing out over time Instantaneous causality