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David Knight Executive Chairman & Co-Founder Growth – Here and Now. KBSH CAPITAL MANAGEMENT. Founded in 1980. Privately owned, by employees. Manager of $6.6 billion in client assets for pension plans, foundations, private clients and managed accounts.
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David Knight Executive Chairman & Co-Founder Growth – Here and Now
KBSH CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Founded in 1980. Privately owned, by employees. Manager of $6.6 billion in client assets for pension plans, foundations, private clients and managed accounts. Leading separately managed accounts manager. Investing in growing companies at reasonable valuations. All asset classes managed internally. Global capabilities. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
KBSH - MANAGED CLARINGTON FUNDS • CANADIAN GROWTH FUND • RRSP-eligible Canadian equity fund • Up to 30% foreign (U.S., & International) • U.S. GROWTH FUND • KBSH management since November 1, 2002 • Core U.S. equity fund • DIVERSIFIED INCOME FUND • Conservative, RRSP-eligible income fund; monthly distribution; 6% target yield • Mix of corporate and high yield bonds, income trusts and dividend-paying equities • INCOME TRUST FUND • RRSP-eligible income trust fund, monthly distribution; 8% target yield • Emphasis on most conservative income trusts CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTOR: ASSESSING BUSINESS STEP 1 IDENTIFY GLOBAL GROWTH COMPANIES • High growth in revenues, cash flow, earnings STEP 2 ANALYZE FINANCIAL CRITERIA/VALUATIONS • Reasonable valuations: P/E, P/CF • Balance sheet strength STEP 3 QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT • Sustainable competitive advantage • Management strength • Accounting philosophy STEP 4 TAILOR BUY LIST TO INDIVIDUAL PORTFOLIOS AND GUIDELINES 2000 Companies 400 Companies Closely followed 150 Companies Buy List 25-45 Companies CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTOR: ASSESSING BUSINESS Solvency Score (Corp. Bonds) Sustainable Distribution (Income Trusts) Cash Flow Strong Balance Sheet ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENTS Strong and Stable Management Attractive Industry Profile Sustainable Competitive Advantage
STRONG LONG TERM RESULTS Sample: Canadian Equity The KBSH Canadian Equity WRAP portfolio has doubled over the past 5 years. The TSX is up 30% over the past 5 years. The growth style index is down 25% over the past 5 years. All returns are in Canadian Dollars as of April 30th, 2004. The indicated return history is based on average annual compound total returns and does not take into account any management or administration fees payable by individual investors which would have reduced returns in their individual portfolios. Investment returns will fluctuate. *Prior to December 31st, 2002 the Canadian Growth and Value Indices are represented by the Russell 300 Growth and Value Indices. As of January 1, 2003 they are represented by the MSCI Canada Growth Index and the MSCI Canada Value Index. Sources: Bloomberg, KBSH CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS (as of April 30th, 2004) Our objective is to construct portfolios with above average earnings growth characteristics at reasonable, if not discounted, valuations. * KBSH U.S. data from a stand-alone U.S. Equity wrap portfolio and may not be identical for the U.S. Equity component of a broader, global mandate. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Economic Commentary CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
INFLATION IS COMING… US ECRI Future Inflation Gauge vs Core CPI The opinions expressed herein are those of KBSH Capital Management Inc. and are subject to change without notice. Chart source: DB Global Markets Research, Bloomberg. The ECRI FIG is a composite of commodity prices, labour market conditions, yield spreads, growth in debt, imports prices and ISM supplier deliveries. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
…“BY HOW MUCH?” IS THE QUESTION The opinions expressed herein are those of KBSH Capital Management Inc. and are subject to change without notice. Chart source: NFIB, BLS/Haver CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
THERE IS AN INFLATION SWEET SPOT P/E ratios are sensitive to inflation. Below 3% inflation, pricing power diminishes rapidly. Above 3%, earnings quality decreases. The opinions expressed herein are those of KBSH Capital Management Inc. and are subject to change without notice. Chart source: Cross Border Capital. Data for the S&P 500 trailing earnings. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
LEADING INDICATORS REMAIN STRONG The opinions expressed herein are those of KBSH Capital Management Inc. and are subject to change without notice. Chart source: Canada – Statistics Canada; US – Bureau of Labor Statistics. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
SHIPPING RATES HAVE SURGED Baltic Freight Index The opinions expressed herein are those of KBSH Capital Management Inc. and are subject to change without notice. Chart source: NBF Economic Research, Datastream, IMF CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
CHINA’S COMMODITY DEMAND CONTINUES China’s % Consumption of World Commodities Cement consumption implies strong infrastructure demand The opinions expressed herein are those of KBSH Capital Management Inc. and are subject to change without notice. Chart source: WBMS, IISI, World Cement, UNCTAD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
EARNINGS LOOK GOOD Trailing P/E multiples may be high, but trailing earnings per share (EPS) is back on trend. The opinions expressed herein are those of KBSH Capital Management Inc. and are subject to change without notice. Chart source: DB Global Markets Research, Bloomberg. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Outlook and Strategies CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
OUTLOOK AND STRATEGIES MACRO ECONOMIC • Full throttle for monetary and fiscal policies • Global economic momentum to continue • Modest inflation MARKETS • A pause following last year’s strong rebound • Corporate profits growing for 8 straight quarters • Equities appreciation to be driven by profit growth • Bond yields heading higher PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES • Equity emphasis in balanced portfolios • Foreign equities becoming more attractive • Economic sensitive sectors favoured CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
IN SUMMARY KBSH MANAGED CLARINGTON PORTFOLIOS ARE WORKING and THEY’RE POSITIONED FOR FURTHER GROWTH • Leverage to global expansion • Strong growth characteristics at reasonable prices CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
CANADIAN GROWTH FUND Always well diversified; currently invested with significant economically sensitive exposure; some defensive holdings retained Holdings are as of May 21st, 2004 and are based on a model portfolio. The securities held should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. There is no guarantee your portfolio would hold these securities. The securities mentioned herein were chosen as examples and may not represent the complete portfolio. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
U.S. GROWTH FUND Holdings are as of May 21st, 2004 and are based on a model portfolio. The securities held should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. There is no guarantee your portfolio would hold these securities. The securities mentioned herein were chosen as examples and may not represent the complete portfolio. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
DIVERSIFIED INCOME FUND Holdings are as of May 21, 2004 and are based on a model portfolio. The securities held should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. There is no guarantee your portfolio would hold these securities. The securities mentioned herein were chosen as examples and may not represent the complete portfolio. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
INCOME TRUST FUND Holdings are as of May 21st, 2004 and are based on a model portfolio. The securities held should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold. There is no guarantee your portfolio would hold these securities. The securities mentioned herein were chosen as examples and may not represent the complete portfolio. CAPITAL MANAGEMENT