New Mexico State University USDA-ERS Cooperative Agreement Research

1. New Mexico State University USDA-ERS Cooperative Agreement Research Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D. Dept. of Ag Economics & Ag Business NMSU Las Cruces, NM

2. History • Research since 1999 • 2 agreements • NMSU located in Las Cruces, NM • Proximity to Santa Teresa, NM • Four master’s students supported • Diana Lopez Mitchell (MS) • René Acuña (MS) • Christie Guinn (MAG) • Cristina Carmona (MAG)

3. Collaboration with… • New Mexico Department of Agriculture • New Mexico Livestock Board • Unión Ganadera Regional de Chihuahua • Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua

4. 2003 Distribution of Imported Mexican Calves (1.2 million animals)

5. #1 – Econometric Analysis of Cattle Movements from Mexico to the U.S. (D. Lopez Mitchell) • Need for information on annual flow of calves by port & by month: • Allocation of inspection services and personnel • Budgeting • Development of models to explain & predict Mexican calf imports • Precipitation (seasonality) • U.S. prices

6. Calves Imported at Santa Teresa, NM 1994 - 2003 80,000 60,000 40,000 Head 20,000 0 Jan-1994 Jan-1995 Jan-1996 Jan-1997 Jan-1998 Jan-1999 Jan-2000 Jan-2001 Jan-2002 Jan-2003

7. Rainfall - Chihuahua 1994 - 2003 200 150 Millimeters 100 50 0 Jan-1994 Jan-1995 Jan-1996 Jan-1997 Jan-1998 Jan-1999 Jan-2000 Jan-2001 Jan-2002 Jan-2003

8. Cattle Price Ratio, 1994 - 2003 2.5 2.0 1.5 U.S. / Mexico 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan-1994 Jan-1995 Jan-1996 Jan-1997 Jan-1998 Jan-1999 Jan-2000 Jan-2001 Jan-2002 Jan-2003

9. Calves Imported at Santa Teresa, NM • When the price ratio , calf imports  • When rainfall in Chihuahua , calf imports  • Model explained 75% of variability

10. Eagle Pass, TX – 60% Del Rio, TX – 68% Hidalgo, TX – 34% Laredo, TX – 71% Presidio, TX – 68% Columbus, NM – 66% San Luis, AZ – 60% Douglas, AZ – 63% Nogales, AZ – 79% Results for Other Ports-of-Entry

11. #2 - Identification of Origins & Destinations of Imported Mexican Cattle (R. Acuña) • Initiated Spring 2001 • Interest in livestock traceability • Europe, Canada • Food & Mouth Disease, BSE • Data for imported Mexican calves • Santa Teresa / San Jerónimo

12. Sources of Data … • Origins of calves inMexico • Certificado Zoosanitario; Unión Ganadera • 900 observation – The “Ins” • Destinations of calves in the U.S. • Unión Ganadera, bills of lading • 4,025 observations – The “Outs” • New Mexico Livestock Board • 2,278 observations – Inspection certificates

13. Procedures • Create database in MS-Access • Convert data files • Import data to Arc-View • Join data for the imported calves with geographic data • States, counties, zip codes, municipios • Derive sums, maps, tables • Tuberculin number is common between New Mexico inspection form and Mexican certificado zoosanitario

19. #3 - Overview of North American Cattle Trade (C. Guinn) • North American Beef and Cattle Trade: A Current Perspective • Publication describes status of US-Mexico-Canada beef & cattle trade • NM AES technical report

20. Live Cattle Imports by Port of Entry from Mexico to the United States: Data & Models • Update Lopez Mitchell work • Models explanatory power  • As US-Mexico live cattle price ratio , imports  • Rainfall coefficients not different from zero • NM AES research report • Currently revising existing US livestock sector model to better capture Mexican imports

21. Current model revision work • Animal products branch quarterly livestock model • (R. Stillman) • This model treated cattle & beef imports as exogenous • We are trying to endogenize the imports

22. #4 – The Chihuahua, Mexico Export Cattle Industry (C. Carmona) • Procedures for Exporting Cattle from Chihuahua, Mexico to the USA • Detailed description of Mexican policy environment, regulations & current procedures for exporting cattle to the US. • NM AES technical report

23. Tuberculosis and Brucellosis Test Certificate of Herd of Origin Cattle Movement Permit Exportation to United States Certificate of Ovariectomy “Spaying” Zoosanitary Certificate

24. Results of a Survey of Cattle Exporters in Chihuahua, Mexico • Develop information for the population of cattle exporters in Chihuahua, Mexico • Provide an overview of how Mexican cattle exporters perceive US-Mexico cattle trade • Random sample survey • Data from 143 cattle exporters • Interviews during Summer 2004 • UACh collaboration

26. Results of a Survey of Cattle Exporters in Chihuahua, Mexico • Mean cattle exported = 549 • Exports ranged from < 50 - 3,000 head • Export to US for better prices, ability to sell large lots • Avg. 18 years of exporting to US • 80% have received government subsidies (genetics)

27. Survey of Chihuahua Cattle Exporters • Pessimism about Mexican market • Predict more US sanitary barriers • Reasons for involvement in livestock industry • Tradition, culture, lifestyle, social status • Enterprise diversification • Developing producer/exporter typology • W 192

28. Other activities… • Effect of US brand laws on imports of Mexican cattle • C. Guinn • Development of an improved bill of lading for use at NM ports of entry • C. Carmona

29. Thank You & Gracias!

30. Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D. Professor, Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Ag Economics & Ag Business Box 30003 MSC 3169 New Mexico State University Las Cruces, NM 88003 Tel: 505-646-1344 or 505-646-2401 Fax: 505-646-3808 Email: rskaggs@nmsu.edu