THE DEVELOPMENT OF CATASTROPHE EARTHQUAKE RISK ESTIMATION SYSTEM BASED ON GIS

1. IGARSS 2011, July 25-29, Vancouver, Canada THE DEVELOPMENT OF CATASTROPHE EARTHQUAKE RISKESTIMATION SYSTEM BASED ON GIS Xiang DING Presented by Aixia DOU Institute of Earthquake Science China Earthquake Administration Friday, July 29,2011

2. Contents • Introduction • The Design Object of the System • The Basic Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment • Earthquake Risk Assessment • The Main Functions of CERES • Conclusion and Acknowledgement

3. Introduction The Catastrophe Earthquake Risk Estimation System (CERES for Windows) isa professional software system developed specifically for the risk assessment of catastrophe earthquakes in the next ten years in Asia.

4. The Design Object of CERES • Earthquake risk assessment • Information service • Earthquake risk mapping of Asia

5. The System Development • Development Tools • ArcEngine 9.2 • Visual Studio VB.NET 2005 • DataBase • Microsoft Access • Oracle • Runing Environment • MS Windows XP or upper version

6. The Basic Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment Conventional models of ER (Wang et al, 2007) or R - the estimated seismic risk value L - the life or economic losses P(Y) - the probability of occurrence of seismic ground motion Y (Seismic hazard probability) V(Y) - the vulnerability of social wealth (life, building or economic index such as GDP) in Y W - Social wealth

7. The Basic Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment A new ER model developed by Wang et al (2009) OR R - the estimated seismic risk value L - the life or economic losses P(Y) - the probability of occurrence of seismic ground motion Y (Seismic hazard probability) A - the ability of disaster reduction V(Y|A) - the vulnerability under the condition of A W - Social wealth

8. Seismic Risk Seismic Hazard Seismic Vulnerability Social Wealth Activity of Catastrophe EQ. Losses & Vulnerability of Catastrophe EQ. Social & Economic Development Factors affecting Seismic Risk The Basic Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment The basic process of risk assessment for catastrophe earthquake

9. The Main Functions of CERES The system function frame chart

10. System Menus of CERES

11. The Integrated Control Interface of CERES

12. Database Management

13. Database Management Database maintain • Add/Batch Add • Delete/Batch Delete • Update • Cancel • Find • Auxiliary input list The Input of Earthquake Parameters

14. Query According to the User Defined Conditions

15. The Output of Basic Data & Assessment Results

16. Geograpgic Information and Map Management

17. Thematic Map Creation and Viewing

18. Query Service of the Catalog and Disaster Information of Catastrophic Earthquakes

19. Earthquake Risk Assessment

20. Earthquake Risk Assessment Interface of Control Params for Risk Assessment

21. Earthquake Risk Assessment Interface of Control Params for Risk Assessment Example of Risk Assessment

22. Fast Loss Assessment after Catastrophe Earthquake • Death toll of Ms7.1Yushu earthquake • Actual: 2698 • Miss: 270 • Fast Estimated : 1423 Interface of Control Params for Fast Loss Assessment Estimated Seismic Intensity Distribution of 2010 Ms7.0 Yushu Earthquake, Qinghai Province, China

23. Conclusion and Acknowledgement TheCatastrophe Earthquake Risk Estimation System (CERES)has been showing the potential ability in practical research of risk assessment in Asia while the results have not been presented here for a limited extent of paper. The research was supported by Ministry of Science & Technology of China (NO. 2008BAC44B02).

24. Thank you! Ding xiang dingxiang525@163.com +86-10-88015736