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Classroom Games in Economics. Tuvana Pastine. Sept 19, 2014. Guessing Game. Pick a natural number from 1 to 100: 1, 2, 3, … ,100 AND THE WINNER IS: The number closest to 2/3 rd of the average of all guesses. For instance: If average of class= 90
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Classroom Games in Economics Tuvana Pastine Sept 19, 2014
Guessing Game Pick a natural number from 1 to 100: 1, 2, 3, … ,100 AND THE WINNER IS: The number closest to 2/3rd of the average of all guesses. For instance: If average of class= 90 winner is number closest to 90*(2/3)=60 If average of class is 18 winner is number closest to 18*(2/3)=12
What is the theoretical prediction? 100→66→44→29→ . . .
1997 Financial Times Winner=15
Do people really behave as the theory predicts? • Rationality • Common Knowledge of Rationality
Keynes’ Beauty Contest “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” (1936) Price Fluctuations in Equity Markets
Keynes’ Beauty Contest “It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. . .
Keynes’ Beauty Contest “. . . We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practice the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.”
Greater Fool Theory You may be a fool to pay as much as you did, but you are betting that there’s a greater fool down the road. And if you’re right, then of course you aren’t being foolish.
Terminology: Rationaliy Common knowledge of rationality Keynes’ beauty contest Fundamental value and stock prices Greater fool theory
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/01/14/132906135/ranking-cute-animals-a-stock-market-experimenthttp://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/01/14/132906135/ranking-cute-animals-a-stock-market-experiment
Why Games True Learning Academic Evidence for: • Higher Student and Teacher Satisfaction • Weak Students versus Strong Students • Girls versus Boys
Pit Market40-60 minutes15-20 students http://people.virginia.edu/~cah2k/pitmkttr.pdf supply, demand, consumer surplus, producer surplus, equilibrium price and quantity variations: sales tax, price ceiling