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Effective Communication What WE Have Learned

Effective Communication What WE Have Learned. Bob Ryan WJLA/ABC7 Washington DC. Science is Organized Knowledge Wisdom is Organized Life. Immanuel Kant. The Weather/Climate Forecast System/Enterprise. Forecasting Engine. Data. Forecast. Decision.

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Effective Communication What WE Have Learned

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  1. Effective Communication What WE Have Learned Bob Ryan WJLA/ABC7 Washington DC

  2. Science is Organized Knowledge Wisdom is Organized Life Immanuel Kant

  3. The Weather/Climate Forecast System/Enterprise Forecasting Engine Data Forecast Decision

  4. The Weather/Climate Forecast System/Enterprise Forecasting Engine Data Forecast Decision Physical Physical Physical Social

  5. Captain. . . We Have a Problem URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1021 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2010 FLZ020>025-030>032-035>037-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-130300- /O.EXP.KJAX.HZ.W.0009.000000T0000Z-100112T1500Z/ /O.CON.KJAX.HZ.W.0010.100113T0400Z-100113T1500Z/ HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY- GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-- . . ..ST MARYS 1021 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2010 … HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE HARD FREEZE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

  6. Cool Hand Luke “What We Have Is . . . . Failure To Communicate”

  7. “Particularly Dangerous Situation” . . . .or Life Threatening Storm

  8. Mike Smith Wichita April 14, 2012 Wichita tornado “There is zero evidence the “enhanced” tornado warnings saved any lives . . . the town of Conway Springs (the first TE) was completely missed by the tornado. Wichita (second TE) had already experienced most of its damage when they issued the TE” “NWS warnings are too long and wordy . . . [Joplin 2011 third warning nearly 300 words] NWS needs to shorten and simplify

  9. ? ? ?

  10. “What We Have Is . . . . Failure To Communicate”

  11. James Spann Birmingham ON camera during severe weather coverage. No doubt this is the most widespread and serious problem we have today. The easiest thing to do is to “hide behind the equipment”. With all of the fancy computer graphics, radar software, and social media tools, the natural thing to do it get behind the console and work the equipment. But, you will never, ever be an effective communicator unless you look your audience in the eyes. Research after the historic April 27, 2011 outbreak shows over and over that people do react to the facial expression, and tone of voice of a TV meteorologist they know and trust. Get on the chroma-key wall and make eye contact with your audience.

  12. Gary England Oklahoma City May 3, 1999 Tornado 1. “Most structures will not survive this tornado” 2. “Don’t’ go outside and look. . It will kill you” 3. “You need to get below ground [safe rooms and shelters] to survive. “People could see the tornado and I told them they were going to die if they did not take shelter” Prior to the May 24, 2011 outbreak “scary” hype. Businesses released employees tornadoes approached. . .chaotic tangled rush of vehicles and their terrified passengers trying to get somewhere. “Words can be very dangerous with serious unintended consequences.”

  13. Glenn Burns Atlanta April 2011 super outbreak “There is an imminent threat of tornadoes. Not a possibility. It will happen” “When green meets red get under the bed” NWS- “Debris ball being detected” . . . That scared the hell out of people “Put helmets on the kids . . . High rise protect from glass by turning a waste basket over their heads”

  14. Dr. Greg Forbes The Weather Channel “When Dr. Forbes raised the TORCON to 10 on April 27, 2011 for Birmingham I took shelter.” People understand the 10-point rating scale and helps them distinguish the days with the greatest tornado threat. In this time of numerous watches and warnings, that added piece of information is helpful to them

  15. TOR:CON- “Condition” or Confidence”? Conditions “favorable” for tornadoes or conditions “dangerous”? A “chance” of thunderstorms or a “risk” of thunderstorms? A “chance” of rain during a drought . . .a “risk” of power outages from storms.

  16. Tim Simpson Memphis Related by Jim Jaggers-WREG TV During a lengthy wall-to-wall tornado event “I’m going to take some personal liberties at this time and speak to my own wife and family. Honey, get the kids in the basement right now ”

  17. Bryan Norcross WTVJ-Miami/TWC Saturday August 22 -1AM “I’m going to go home now and get some sleep and I suggest you do too. Tomorrow is going to be a very big day in our city and I’m not sure if we’re going to get sleep tomorrow night”

  18. Bryan Norcross WTVJ-Miami/TWC Early Monday August 24 I remembered a book by L.F. Reardon . . .1926 Great Hurricane . . .”Get a mattress off the bed and have it ready. When you go to your safe spot, get your family in there, get the mattress over them, and wait this thing out” It was the smartest thing I ever said in my life

  19. The “Cone of Uncertainty”. . . .Why Not the “Cone of Probability” or “Cone of Likely Path”

  20. David Bernard Miami Always prepare for a category higher. If it's a 1 prepare for a 2. The obvious reason being the uncertainty in intensity forecasting..the weakest link.

  21. Effective Communication

  22. Effective Communication

  23. Dan Satterfield WBOC Salisbury Heavy rain and possible floods Chance of 0.25” 100% Chance of at least 1” 75% Chance of 2” 60% Chance 4” in most areas 25% Chance a few spots 4” 70%

  24. Gene Norman Houston “

  25. Bob Ryan Washington “

  26. Harvey Here “The Trend is Your Friend” Persistence is hard to beat about 50% of the time

  27. Steve Udelson Charlotte, NC December 2002 ”Get to a store, stock up on non-perishable food and water and prepare for no power for a long time . . . Perhaps as long as when Hugo came through. . .this will be an epic ice storm”

  28. Bob Ryan Washington

  29. The Weather/Climate Forecast System/Enterprise Forecasting Engine Data Forecast Decision Physical Physical Physical Social

  30. Robin Reed Roanoke “

  31. Eliot Abrams AccuWeather “Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee” Tropical Rainstorm Lee

  32. Don Paul Buffalo “Moveable feast of snow" when emphasizing the likely oscillation of lake effect bands.

  33. Chicage Windler Indianapolis The Hottest Temperatures in Nearly a Quarter of a Century “Historical context for just how rare this heat wave would be gave viewers pause and primed them”

  34. Joe Murgo Altoona “There are just some things in life that you can't say “oops” to. If you see a flooded roadway, turn around, don't drown”

  35. Severe Thunderstorm Warning??Destructive Thunderstorm Warning

  36. Gary England Oklahoma City “My personal belief is that a successful warning system consists of a local NWS that is very effective with warnings using standard non-inflammatory language EXCEPT in REAL emergencies; an excellent emergency management organization and media meteorologists who have built a positive, personal relationship and partnership with the public. When lives are at risk, the public tunes in to broadcasters they trust”

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