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An updated evaluation of the U.S. Historical Climate Network as it relates to siting biases Supplement to Watts et al.,

An area and distance weighted analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends. An updated evaluation of the U.S. Historical Climate Network as it relates to siting biases Supplement to Watts et al., 2012.

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An updated evaluation of the U.S. Historical Climate Network as it relates to siting biases Supplement to Watts et al.,

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  1. An area and distance weighted analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends An updated evaluation of the U.S. Historical Climate Network as it relates to siting biases Supplement to Watts et al., 2012

  2. Table of Contents INTRODUCTION ……………………………………………. page 2 STATION QUALITY RATINGS (“Microsite”) …………...page 3 GENERAL STATION ENVIRONMENT (“Mesosite”) ….. page 4 PART1 ………………………………………………………... page 5 • All Rated Stations PART 2 ……………………………………………………….. page 14 • Airports Excluded PART 3 ……………………………………………………….. page24 • Rural Stations Only PART 4 ……………………………………………………….. page 33 • Rural Stations Only • Airports Excluded PART 5 ……………………………………………………….. page 43 • Rural Stations Only • Airports Excluded • MMTS Equipment (modernized sensors) only

  3. Introduction This study compares of the rate of warming of well sited and poorly sited stations to determine whether improper location engenders spurious warming biases in the data trends. There are two bases of comparison: • Microsite: Immediate surroundings (Proximity to buildings, asphalt surfaces, etc. Stations are rated from Class 1 to 5.) • Mesosite: General environment (Rural, Semi-Urban, Urban, etc.) Ideally, only properly sited, i.e., Class 1&2, Rural, Non-Airport, stations should be used to measure historical temperature trends.

  4. Station Quality Ratings(Microsite) • Class 1&2 (Compliant) • Heat sinks cover under 10% of area within a 30-meter radius of sensor, under 1% of within 5 meters, and under 5% of an annulus from 5 to 10 meters. • Class 3 (Non-Compliant) • Heat sinks cover over 10% of area within a 30-meter radius but under 10% within 10 meters and under 5% within 5 meters. • Class 4 (Non-Compliant) • Heat sinks cover from 10% to 50% of area within a 10-meter radius of sensor but under 30% within 3 meters. • Class 5 (Non-Compliant) • Heat sinks cover over 50% or more area within a 10-meter radius of sensor or over 30% within 3 meters.

  5. General Environment(Mesosite) • Rural • Semi-Urban • Urban • Airports

  6. Part 1Sample: All Stations This includes all stations in place prior to 2003 that we were able to observe and rate. Includes: • Rural • Semi-Urban • Urban • Airports Sample size (All Stations, All Classes): 779 Compliant: 160 Non-Compliant: 619

  7. Class 1\2 (Compliant)All Rated Stations Heat sinks cover under 10% of area within a 30-meter radius of sensor, under 1% of within 5 meters, and under 5% of an annulus from 5 to 10 meters. Airports and urbanized areas are included. Sample size: 160 Gridded Average

  8. Class 3 (Non-Compliant)All Rated Stations Gridded Average Heat sinks cover over 10% of area within a 30-meter radius but under 10% within 10 meters and under 5% within 5 meters. Sample size: 247

  9. Class 4 (Non-Compliant)All Rated Stations Gridded Average Heat sinks cover from 10% to 50% of area within a 10-meter radius of sensor but under 30% within 3 meters. Airports and urbanized areas are included. Sample size: 277

  10. Class 5 (Non-Compliant)All Rated Stations Gridded Average Heat sinks cover over 50% or more area within a 10-meter radius of sensor or over 30% within 3 meters. Airports and urbanized areas are included. Sample size: 95

  11. Class 3\4\5 (All Non-Compliant)All Rated Stations Gridded Average Sample includes all Class 3, 4, and 5 stations. These stations are not in compliance with NOAA microsite requirements. Sample size: 619

  12. Class 1-5 (All Rated Stations)All Rated Stations Gridded Average Sample includes all rated stations, Class 1-5, including all NOAA compliant and non-compliant stations. Sample size: 779

  13. Class 1-5 (After NOAA Adjustments)All Rated Stations Gridded Average This is the data for all 779 rated stations as adjusted by NOAA. Instead of adjusting the poorly sited station trends downward to the levels of the well located stations, the well sited station trends are adjusted upward to match the poor station trends. The “official” trend data is higher even than that of the raw data for non-compliant stations.

  14. ComparisonAll Rated Stations in the CONUSWhat the compliant thermometers (Class 1&2) say: +.155°C/decadeWhat the non-compliant thermometers (Class 3,4,5) say: +.248°C/decadeWhat the NOAA final adjusted data says: +.309°C/decade Class 1\2 (Compliant) All stations, Class 1-5 (Final data after NOAA Adjustments) Class 3,4,5 (Non-Compliant)

  15. Part 2Airports Excluded • This includes stations in place prior to 2003 that we were able to observe and rate. • Includes: • Rural • Semi-Urban • Urban • (Airports Excluded) • Sample size (All Stations, All Classes): 727 • Compliant: 126 • Non-Compliant: 601

  16. Class 1\2 (Compliant)Airports Excluded Gridded Average Heat sinks cover under 10% of area within a 30-meter radius of sensor, under 1% of within 5 meters, and under 5% of an annulus from 5 to 10 meters. Airports are excluded, urbanized areas are included. Sample size: 126

  17. Class 3 (Non-Compliant)Airports Excluded Gridded Average Heat sinks cover over 10% of area within a 30-meter radius but under 10% within 10 meters and under 5% within 5 meters. Airports are excluded, urbanized areas are included. Sample size: 238

  18. Class 4 (Non-Compliant)Airports Excluded Gridded Average Heat sinks cover from 10% to 50% of area within a 10-meter radius of sensor but under 30% within 3 meters. Airports are excluded, and urbanized areas are included. Sample size: 269

  19. Class 5 (Non-Compliant)Airports Excluded Gridded Average Heat sinks cover over 50% or more area within a 10-meter radius of sensor or over 30% within 3 meters. Airports are excluded, urbanized areas are included. Sample size: 94

  20. Class 3\4\5 (All Non-Compliant)Airports Excluded Gridded Average Sample includes all Class 3, 4, and 5 stations. These stations are not in compliance with NOAA microsite requirements. Sample size: 601

  21. Class 1-5 (All Rated Stations)Airports Excluded Gridded Average Sample excludes airports, urbanized areas are included. Class 1-5, including both NOAA compliant and non-compliant stations. Sample Size: 727

  22. Class 1-5 (After NOAA Adjustments)Airports Excluded Gridded Average This is the data for the 727 non-airport stations as adjusted by NOAA. The well sited station trends are adjusted upward to match the poor station trends (also adjusted upward. The adjusted trend data is higher even than that of the raw data for non-compliant stations.

  23. ComparisonAirports ExcludedWhat the compliant thermometers actually say: +.124What the non-compliant thermometers say: +.246What NOAA says: +.308 Class 1\2 (Compliant) Class 1-5 (After NOAA Adjustments) Class 3\4\5 (All Non-Compliant)

  24. ComparisonAirports vs. Non-AirportsCompliant Stations, Non-Airports: .124Compliant Stations, Airports: .251 Class 1\2 (Compliant) AIRPORTS REMOVED Class 1\2 (Compliant) AIRPORTS ONLY

  25. Part 3Rural Only • This includes stations in place prior to 2003 that we were able to observe and rate. • Includes: • Rural • Rural Airports • (Semi-Urban Excluded) • (Urban Excluded) • Sample size (All Stations, All Classes): 502 • Compliant: 105 • Non-Compliant: 397

  26. Class 1\2 (Compliant)Rural Only Gridded Average Heat sinks cover under 10% of area within a 30-meter radius of sensor, under 1% of within 5 meters, and under 5% of an annulus from 5 to 10 meters. Rural airports are included, all urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 105

  27. Class 3 (Non-Compliant)Rural Only Gridded Average Heat sinks cover over 10% of area within a 30-meter radius but under 10% within 10 meters and under 5% within 5 meters. Rural airports are included, all urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 158

  28. Class 4 (Non-Compliant)Rural Only Gridded Average Heat sinks cover from 10% to 50% of area within a 10-meter radius of sensor but under 30% within 3 meters. Rural airports are included, all urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 187

  29. Class 5 (Non-Compliant)Rural Only Gridded Average Heat sinks cover over 50% or more area within a 10-meter radius of sensor or over 30% within 3 meters. Rural airports are included, all urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 52

  30. Class 3\4\5 (All Non-Compliant)Rural Only Gridded Average Sample includes all Class 3, 4, and 5 stations. These stations are not in compliance with NOAA microsite requirements. Rural airports are included, all urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 397

  31. Class 1-5 (All Rated Stations)Rural Only Gridded Average Sample includes rural airports; all urbanized areas are excluded. Class 1-5, including both NOAA compliant and non-compliant stations. Sample Size: 502

  32. Class 1-5 (After NOAA Adjustments)Rural Only Gridded Average This is the data for the 502 rural stations, as adjusted by NOAA. The well sited station trends are adjusted upward to match the poor station trends (also adjusted upward. The adjusted trend data is higher even than that of the raw data for non-compliant stations.

  33. ComparisonRural OnlyWhat the compliant thermometers actually say: +.123What the non-compliant thermometers say: +.228What NOAA says: +.304 Class 1\2 (Compliant) Class 1-5 (After NOAA Adjustments) Class 3\4\5 (All Non-Compliant)

  34. Part 4Rural, Airports Excluded • This includes stations in place prior to 2003 that we were able to observe and rate. • Includes: • Rural, Non-Airport • (All Airports, including Rural, Excluded) • (Semi-Urban Excluded) • (Urban Excluded) • Sample size (All Stations, All Classes): 491 • Compliant: 98 • Non-Compliant: 393

  35. Class 1\2 (Compliant)Rural, no Airports Gridded Average Heat sinks cover under 10% of area within a 30-meter radius of sensor, under 1% of within 5 meters, and under 5% of an annulus from 5 to 10 meters. All airports and urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 98

  36. Class 3 (Non-Compliant)Rural, no Airports Gridded Average Heat sinks cover over 10% of area within a 30-meter radius but under 10% within 10 meters and under 5% within 5 meters. All airports and urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 157

  37. Class 4 (Non-Compliant)Rural, no Airports Gridded Average Heat sinks cover from 10% to 50% of area within a 10-meter radius of sensor but under 30% within 3 meters. All airports and urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 185

  38. Class 5 (Non-Compliant)Rural, no Airports Gridded Average Heat sinks cover over 50% or more area within a 10-meter radius of sensor or over 30% within 3 meters. All airports and urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 51

  39. Class 3\4\5 (All Non-Compliant)Rural, no Airports Gridded Average Sample includes all Class 3, 4, and 5 stations. These stations are not in compliance with NOAA microsite requirements. All airports and urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 393

  40. Class 1-5 (All Rated Stations)Rural, no Airports Gridded Average Sample includes rural non-airports; all urbanized areas and airports are excluded. Class 1-5, including both NOAA compliant and non-compliant stations. Sample Size: 491

  41. Class 1-5 (After NOAA Adjustments)Rural, no Airports Gridded Average This is the data for the 491 rural non-airport stations, as adjusted by NOAA. The well sited station trends are adjusted upward to match the poor station trends (also adjusted upward. The adjusted trend data is higher even than that of the raw data for non-compliant stations.

  42. ComparisonRural, no AirportsWhat the compliant thermometers actually say: +.108What the non-compliant thermometers say: +.228What NOAA says: +.307 Class 1\2 (Compliant) Class 1-5 (After NOAA Adjustments) Class 3\4\5 (All Non-Compliant)

  43. ComparisonRural, no AirportsCompliant Raw vs. Compliant AdjustedCompliant Stations, Raw Data: .108Compliant Stations, NOAA Adjusted Data: .251 Class 1\2 (Compliant) Rural, no Airports, RAW Class 1\2 (Compliant) Rural, no Airports, NOAA ADJUSTED

  44. Part 5Rural MMTS, Airports Excluded • This includes stations in place prior to 2003 that we were able to observe and rate. • Includes: • Rural MMTS, Non-Airport • (All Non-MMTS post 1994 or plurality CRS or ASOS Excluded) • (All Airports, including Rural, Excluded) • (Semi-Urban Excluded) • (Urban Excluded) • Sample size (All Stations, All Classes): 312 • Compliant: 56 • Non-Compliant: 256

  45. Class 1\2 (Compliant)Rural MMTS, no Airports Gridded Average Heat sinks cover under 10% of area within a 30-meter radius of sensor, under 1% of within 5 meters, and under 5% of an annulus from 5 to 10 meters. All non-MMTS, airports, and urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 56

  46. Class 3 (Non-Compliant)Rural MMTS, no Airports Gridded Average Heat sinks cover over 10% of area within a 30-meter radius but under 10% within 10 meters and under 5% within 5 meters. All non-MMTS, airports, and urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 97

  47. Class 4 (Non-Compliant)Rural MMTS, no Airports Gridded Average Heat sinks cover from 10% to 50% of area within a 10-meter radius of sensor but under 30% within 3 meters. All non-MMTS, airports, and urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 132

  48. Class 5 (Non-Compliant)Rural MMTS, no Airports Gridded Average Heat sinks cover over 50% or more area within a 10-meter radius of sensor or over 30% within 3 meters. All non-MMTS, airports, and urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 27

  49. Class 3\4\5 (All Non-Compliant)Rural MMTS, no Airports Gridded Average Sample includes all Class 3, 4, and 5 stations. These stations are not in compliance with NOAA microsite requirements. All non-MMTS, airports, and urbanized areas are excluded. Sample size: 256

  50. Class 1-5 (All Rated Stations)Rural MMTS, no Airports Gridded Average Sample excludes all non-MMTS equipment, urbanized areas, and airports. Class 1-5, including both NOAA compliant and non-compliant stations. Sample Size: 312

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