Investing in Universities: Lessons from the “Double Cohort” in Ontario

1. Investing in Universities: Lessons from the “Double Cohort” in Ontario CIRPA-ACPRI 2003 Navigating New Waters in Institutional Research Halifax, Nova Scotia Ken Snowdon ksnowdon@sympatico.ca www.SnowdonandAssociates.ca

2. Overview • Setting the Context • In the beginning…. • The challenge • The planning approach • The ‘analytics’ • Politics & People • Lessons

3. Setting the Context • Cut-backs in government funding in early to mid-90’s • Large government deficits • Imposition of “Social Contract” • Election of new “Common Sense” gov’t • Cut of $400 million in PSE 1996 • Some tuition offset & student aid

4. In the beginning…. “Ontario is the only province that still has a five-year secondary school program. Reducing this to four years would save an estimated $350 million a year. This program would have to be phased in, to allow time for curriculum schedules to be changed and to make sure current secondary school students are not affected.” The Common Sense Revolution, May, 1994.

5. Old curriculum 1998/09 Gr. 9 1999/00 Gr. 10 2000/01 Gr. 11 2001/02 Gr. 12 2002/03 OAC Gr. 13 Ready for PSE Fall 2003 New curriculum 1999/00 Gr. 9 2000/01 Gr.10 2001/02 Gr.11 2002/03 Gr.12 Ready for PSE Fall 2003 Secondary School Reform Double Cohort

6. The Challenge • From universities perspective… how to prepare for the greatest expansion in universities since the 1960’s? And use the opportunity to restore funding levels and secure as much $ as possible. • From government perspective… how to deal with the “double cohort” in the context of increased enrolment demand, keep costs contained and bring some ‘reform’ to the higher education sector?

7. (MANY) GOVERNMENTS prepare for employment efficiency & technology applicable research partner with business more competition and sources of degrees cost control, responsible compensation (MUCH OF) ACADEME cultivate the mind teaching needs contact seek knowledge speak ‘truth’ to power quality = the universities recognize increasing relative price of “brains” Differing Perspectives (Two Solitudes)

8. Demographics, Participation and Enrolment Revised MTCU Projection (2002) 26.6% 21.7% 14.8% 8.5% ActualProjected “Echo” “ Boomers” Projected 18-24 Population

9. The Planning Approach - Chronology • 1995: Ministry of Education & Training, school board and university representatives initiate planning – curriculum focused • 1997-98: COU presses Ministers with “comparison charts” with little success

10. -15.3% Making the ‘case’ Pre-98 Ontario’s grants cut by over 15% 1995-1997 compared to significant increases in the US Operating Grants per capita (population)

11. The Planning Approach 1. Public advocacy based on the work of 3rd parties Angus-Reid and PriceWaterhouseCoopers PriceWaterhouseCoopers Will There be Room for Me?

12. The Planning Approach 2. Joint Government-University Working Group on University Capacity • Charged with developing a proposal for Minister to accommodate the expansion and double cohort • establishing enrolment projection(s) • costing the increase (operating, capital, student assistance) • exploring cost efficiencies

13. The “Analytics” • KISS principle - easily understood AND to establish the general level of funding that would be required • Low, Medium, High projections • Operating and Capital $ based on joint gov’t/COU estimates – derived from existing formulas • Efficiencies built in on the capital side - approximately 40% of space to be found from more efficient use of space

14. Budget ‘99 • SuperBuild - $742 million in new capital • ‘provide a space for every willing and qualified student’ • Some additional funding but…No reference to operating funds for the “Double Cohort” • Election Budget…..Common Sense gov’t re-elected AND new separate Ministry of Training, Colleges, Universities established • New players – Minister, DM

15. Hindsight….. • “Those elected in 1995 to deliver major change and re-elected in 1999 to continue the revolution do not view themselves as “government.” They believe that they are the people who came to fix the government, and that the job is only just beginning.” Speech from the Throne, October 21, 1999

16. October ‘99 Press Conference University Perspective • Enhancing public awareness and broad political support 6.6% Increase 1st Yr • Government Perspective • Public confrontation • “Blackmail”

17. WORKING GROUP Activities • Joint input to refine projection • Agreement on (minimum!) capital expansion needs • Review of higher-than-projected 1st yr. enrolments • Staff papers on Productivity, Funding Formula, Costs • Universities’ proposal for budget transfer

18. Understatementof the semester! March 14, 2000 Announcement DETAILS • 0% for inflation • 5-year tuition caps • 1% Performance Fund • 1% Accessibility Fund COU RESPONSE • “does not respond to the enrolment growth …in recent years, nor the need to prepare for the significant increase in demand” • “will reinforce the problems of large class size” • “disappointed with the announcement”

19. Budget 2000 SuperBuild II New Research funds AGAIN … NO REFERENCE TO OPERATING

20. Politics & People • The bureaucracy • inside the Ministry • inside government (Finance, Mgt Board) • Politicians • University Presidents • Government advisors

21. Modifications to the Approach • Shortcomings on the ‘politics’ • Good ‘analytics’ are not enough • province faced with pressures from every sector - health, municipalities, education • need to increase the profile with MPP’s, Ministers and Premier and key staff • need to think about ‘partnership’ rather than advocacy

22. Retreat (2000) • Pursue “productive working relationship” • Engage Tom Trbovich as GR Consultant • “Access to Excellence” campaign • booklet (September) • meetings with each of “70 top influencers” including government MPPs, “external advisors” • Caucus reception (November 2000) • Re-instate Working Group – new DM • Economic impact study - tax contribution

23. Fall- Winter 2000/01 • Gov’t Relations increased markedly • Less “public” advocacy more “partnership” • Vocal advocates (faculty OCUFA, students OUSA) • Gov’t announces Investing in Students’ Task Force to look at efficiency / effectiveness • COU/universities engaged in “demonstrating administrative operating efficiencies” • Universities given “clean bill of health” and Task Force indicates the need for more investment • Finally on parents “radar screen” (Gr. 10 students thinking about Grade 11 prereq’s for Gr. 12 and the PSE)

24. Budget Speech 2001 • “We are committing funding for colleges and universities that will reflect the number of students entering the post-secondary system.” • “An increase in operating grants… of an estimated $293 million by 2003-04 will address anticipated enrolment increases resulting from secondary school reform, demographic factors and a rising participation rate.”

25. Budget 2002 • Full grants for additional enrolment based on revisedprojection • SuperBuild III – more capital • Commitment to additional research investment • Additional $250 million to ORDCF program bringing total to $750 million • Additional $350 million to OIT bringing total to $1,050 million • Additional $2 million to ORPF to $32 million to meet target of providing up to 40% of the indirect costs of Ontario Funded Research • Commitment to an enhanced Ontario Student Opportunity Trust Fund (OSOTF)

26. Budget 2003 • Full grants for additional enrolment – even higher numbers • Commitment to additional research investment • Quality Assurance Fund - $ 200 million • Re-Commitment to an enhanced Ontario Student Opportunity Trust Fund (OSOTF)

27. Capital SuperBuild – 100,000 new ‘spaces’ in Coll/Univ plus commitment to find 36,000 more in ‘efficiencies’ Gov’t funding ~$1.2 Billion – leveraging ~$2.6 Billion in construction and renovation. Operating Increased enrolment funded at ‘average’ $443 million ‘growth’ commitment $200 million Quality Assurance Fund Plus other targetted funding commitments Major Research $ Double Cohort Results

28. More to come… • The ‘double cohort’ will influence gov’t univ relations for the next decade as students progress to professional programs and graduate school • There are still unresolved # problems and likely to be more! • “Devil in the details” - implementation issues have created continuing tension between universities and Ministry

29. Observations… • Analytics are good… but not nearly enough • Interpretation of analysis MUST be CLEAR • Partnership requires free exchange of information in both directions • Politics are of key importance • The bureaucracy can be very helpful AND very unhelpful • People and personalities play a key role • Partnership is rewarding but leads some to believe ‘in the pocket of government’ • Perseverance and ‘patience’ – process, process, process • Serendipity helps!

30. Know what the government’s agenda is. Focus on issues that align with its agenda. Be as precise as possible about language and numbers – good analytics Carefully consider the potential impact of actions – No surprises! Make sure ALL of the key people in government are aware of the issues. Lessons

31. Summing up…. • The ‘double cohort will influence PSE for the next decade – so stay-tuned! • The role of good analytics, politics, people and perseverance cannot be overstated. • A good “case” by itself is seldom enough • Political influence, by itself, is seldom enough • Need for a full integrated strategy. • IR can play a key role in “telling the story”

32. Final thoughts A consultant is ... • someone who takes the watch off your wrist and tells you the time. • a man who knows 99 ways to make love, but doesn't know any women. • someone who is called in at the last moment and paid enormous amounts of money to assign the blame • See you in Montreal!