Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making

1. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making28th- 29th September 2006 Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysis and technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Xiwen Liu National Science Library Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

2. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development CONTENT • Strategic planning in CAS • Application of Bibliometric Analysis • Application of Technology Foresight • Conclusion

3. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Strategic planning in CAS What is the CAS? • An integrative research organization which was founded in 1949. • There are more than 90 institutes that distribute in 26 provinces (cities) China. • The research fields include the Math, Physics, Chemistry, Earth Science, Astronomy, life science, engineering and applied technology. • It has 38,000 researchers and 30,000 post-graduate students (Master and PhD)

4. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Strategic planning in CAS Three times strategic transfer • Up to now, CAS had made three times famous strategic transfers • In 1956, “Marching for the Science” and set up the element research frame firstly for China, such as atomic energy, semiconductor, wireless, automatic technology and rocket propelling technology, and the basic disciplines such as mathematics, physics and chemistry. • In 1979, according to the Development Agenda of Basic Science (1978 – 1985), CAS focused on the 27 key problems related to the industries such as natural resource, agriculture, ocean and transport. • In 1998, CAS laid out the development strategy of S&T of China for the 21st century. And then implemented the Knowledge Innovation Program (KIP), readjusted the layout of science and research focus.

5. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development To be continued • In 2006, CAS have made further strategic adjustments to achieve some important breakthroughs in the fields such as life science, nanotechnology, quantum informatics, and brain and cognitive science as well as in information technology, biological engineering, space science, energy, new material and advanced manufacturing technology, medicine and health, environment protection, ecological restoration and ocean. • The comparative analysis had play the important role in the strategic planning.

6. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Strategic planning in CAS Several methods had been applied to the Strategic research • Focus groups • Workshops, symposium and conferences by KEY scientists and managers in different fields; • There are more than 20 000 scientists participated directly; • Expert survey • The investigation of the S&T needs over the China, in the academic and industrial organizations. • Delphi and forecasting • In 2003, MOST supported the forecasting research on the S&T • In 2005, CAS supported the foresight research • Bibliometric analysis • Input/output analysis

7. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Application of Bibliometric Analysis in CAS Fields of Chinese S&T are quite different from other countries in the world • Notes: Data from the analytic data of Science Citation Index (SCI) (1983-1993) by T. Braun and the Institute of Scientific & Technical Information of China. The data be arranged into 7 categories, mathematics, physics, chemistry, geo-science, life science, medical science and engineering science.

8. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Application of Bibliometric Analysis in CAS The basic results of bibliometric analysis • The National Science Library of CAS carried out a research on the status of China’s science & technology in the world using bibliometric analysis in 1997. • China’s science & technology didn’t have a significant impact in the world. • The development of different disciplines was unbalanced and the layout of disciplines was not appropriate. • Especially China didn’t pay much attention to biology science and medical science which are hot topics in current world (even life science). Artificial synthetic Insulin by China, 1965

9. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Application of Bibliometric Analysis in CAS To be continued: • China’s scientific papers mainly be focused on physics and chemistry fields. • China has a low output in life science and medical science than other developed or even some developing countries. • China hasn’t completed its transformation in the research fields and hasn’t entered the big cycle of the world’s scientific research.

10. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Application of Bibliometric Analysis in CAS China’s scientific papers’ distribution in 27 scientific fields • The number of papers listed in SCI, the US, the UK, Japan, France and Germany were the top 5 countries and had an absolute advantage. • The development of China’s science was quite unbalanced. • China had some relative advantage in mathematics, material science and classical physics, while lagged behind in life science and medical science, ranked No. 30 in the world. • The number of citations and cited rates of China’s scientific papers were in a similar situation with the number of papers. • As following table

11. The profiles of Chinese scientific fields in all the countries (Numbers, Citations and Impact Factor （IF） in the period of 1989-1993 )

12. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Application of Bibliometric Analysis in CAS To be continued • In the distribution of scientific papers in the world, biological engineering, public health, internal medicine, chemical engineering, solid physics and nerve medicine were the top 6 disciplines in the number of scientific papers of worlds; • While China’s most scientific papers distributed in physics, solid physics, applied physics, material science, mathematics, physical chemistry. • China’s scientific research had deviated from the trend of the international science development. • We have also applied the citations to analysis the impacts of China.

13. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Application of Bibliometric Analysis in CAS Summary: • According to the analysis, we proposed our findings to the Tenth Five-Year Science & Technology Planning Group of CAS: • (1) There was a huge gap in science development between China and the developed countries; • (2) The development of different disciplines was obviously unbalanced and the investment on life science and medical science research was distinctly insufficient in China; • (3) The developed countries in science & technology had shifted their research priorities from physics and chemistry to life science and medical science.

14. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Application of Bibliometric Analysis in CAS Another analysis in the 2004 • In 2004,we carried out a research on the disciplinary layout of different countries in the world response to the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). • Data Come from the “Essential Science Indicators of ISI” during the 1993-2003; • The next table shows the Top 5 research paper in percentage in their countries • Comparison to the 1983-1993, China’s scientific research fields are approaching the developed countries. • CHINA should pay more attention and invest to the life sciences.

15. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Application of Bibliometric Analysis in CAS Another analysis in the 2004 Top 5 research fields papers percentage in some Countries

16. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Application of Technology Foresight in Strategic Planning • Dr Mu Rongping have a presentation in the Session 4 • His presentation has focused on the Technology foresight and had contributed to the “Eleven five-year planning of CAS”and others

17. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development Conclusion • When drafting the strategic planning, in the programme and methods, China has adapted the Delphi survey, scientometrics / bibliometrics, brain storm methods etc. Further, China has put more attention on the application of technology foresight, tendency analysis, need analysis, technological economics analysis, and strategic planning analysis to make better planning. • The bibliometric analysis has played primary role in the strategic planning, and it could found a data-flat for the strategic analysis. • In the tendencies research of the international science and technology, China has make great efforts to compare and analysis the differences and gaps between China and developed countries, and scanned the research gaps or opportunities in some fields. • The forecasting methods have been applied to the Macro scientific and technological policy-making.

18. Application of bibliometric (scientometric) analysisand technology foresight in strategic planning of Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS) and Chinese S&T Development • Thanks attentions. • Any Questions?