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DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODELS

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODELS. Casualty Actuarial Society Annual Meeting San Francisco, CA Russ Bingham November 15-17, 1999 Hartford Financial Services. Contents. “Building Blocks”: The Fundamentals Rate of Return Models: Reaching a Common Ground

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DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODELS

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  1. DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODELS Casualty Actuarial Society Annual Meeting San Francisco, CA Russ Bingham November 15-17, 1999 Hartford Financial Services

  2. Contents • “Building Blocks”: The Fundamentals • Rate of Return Models: Reaching a Common Ground • Dealing with Accounting Conventions: Economics Rule • Equivalency in Rates of Return: Do it “Right” and all Models can be Reconciled • The Fundamental Insurance Total Return Model • The Components of Total Return: • Underwriting, Investment & Leverage • Equivalency in Rates of Return • Aspects of Insurance Total Return • Exhibits: Balance Sheet, Income, Cash Flow & Returns

  3. “Building Blocks”: The Fundamentals • Balance Sheet, Income and Cash Flow Statements • Accounting Valuation: Conventional (statutory or GAAP) and Economic (present value) • Development “Triangles” of Marketing/Policy/Accident Period into Calendar Period

  4. Policy (or Accident) / Calendar Period Development Triangles Balance Sheet, Income, Cash Flow Calendar Period Policy Historical Future Total Period19961997199819992000Ultimate Prior X X X X X …... --> Sum 1996 X X X X X …... --> Sum 1997 X X X X …... --> Sum 1998 X X X …... --> Sum 1999 X X …... --> Sum 2000 X …... --> Sum ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Reported Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Calendar

  5. Rate of Return Models:Reaching a Common Ground - Structural Modifications • To Convert Myers-Cohn Into a Rate of Return Model • Inclusion of surplus • Economic value with after-tax discounting • NPV income formulation (with risk adjustment) • NPV income formulation (without risk adjustment) • Development of NPV balance sheet liabilities • Policyholder and shareholder rate of return calculations • To Align Internal Rate of Return Model With Both Policyholder and Shareholder Perspectives • Separation of operating (i.e. policyholder) cash flows • Policyholder and shareholder rate of return calculations

  6. Rate of Return Models: Reaching a Common Ground - Parameter and Model Consistency • Dealing with Risk • IRR cost of capital based total return • MC risk-adjusted NPV total return equal to risk-free rate • MC NPV total return (without risk-adjustment) equal to cost of capital • Beta of Equity versus Beta of Liabilities • Surplus Flows • Controlling amount required and timing of flows • Liability / surplus relationship • Multi-period aspect • Surplus flow components • Surplus contribution and its release • Investment income on contributed surplus • Release of operating earnings

  7. Dealing With Accounting Conventions: Economics Rule • Retained earnings • Not relevant to economic accounting • Unearned premium reserve • If it’s not cash, it’s not economic • Reported income and returns (and other financials as well) • Potentially misleading basis for rating, regulation & financial analysis • Leverage constraints • Concessions to the raters, non-economic constraints • Realizing economic value • Economic value realization takes time, unless liabilities are “sold” • ROE calculation - • Change the formula (income / beginning period contributed surplus) • Do not include retained earnings • Do not average the equity

  8. Equivalency in Rates of Return: Do it “Right” and All Models Can Be Reconciled • For Single Policy • (1) IRR • (2) Net present value ROE • (3) Total policy ultimate nominal ROE • (4) Shareholder annual dividend yield realized • For Multiple Policy Ongoing (steady state, no growth) • (5) IRR • (6) Annual nominal ROE while at steady state (income / beginning contributed surplus) • (7) Shareholder annual dividend yield realized

  9. The Fundamental InsuranceTotal Return Model • (1) Total Return = Operating Return X Operating Leverage • + Investment Rate of Return on Surplus • Operating Return = Underwriting Rate of Return • + Investment Rate of Return on • Policyholder Liability “Float” • OR • (2) Total Return = Underwriting Return X Operating Leverage • + Investment Return X Asset Leverage • Operating Leverage = Net Liabilities / Surplus • Asset Leverage = Invested Assets / Surplus Insurance Consists of Underwriting, Investment & Financial Leverage

  10. The Components of Insurance Total Return -Underwriting, Investment & Leverage • Underwriting Return is the price for the transfer of risk to the company associated with the policyholder related cash flows. When positive the company is being paid for the transfer of risk. When negative the company is incurring a cost to acquire the funds from the policyholder and must depend on the investment spread to generate a profit. • Investment Return represents the yield on invested assets (from both policyholder supplied funds and surplus). The spread between the Investment Return applicable to policyholder supplied funds and the Underwriting Return must be positive if the company is to generate a net operating profit from underwriting. • Leverage (based on surplus requirements needed to meet specified underwriting, investment and financial risk tolerances) creates a magnifying effect on both return and risk. • Total Return reflects the shareholder oriented return, comprised of levered operating return plus the investment return on surplus.

  11. Aspects of Insurance Total Return • The Total Rate of Return, as well as the Underwriting and Investment Rates of Return, can be determined on either • a cash flow basis, via the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) or • as a Return on Equity formed by the ratio of Income to Equity in which the financials are in EITHER Nominal or Present Valued terms • The present value rate of return using a risk-adjusted discount rate will equal the risk-free rate, since by definition risk has been eliminated. • Leverage is controlled by specifying rules governing the flow of surplus and dividend (distribution of earnings) to maintain a uniform risk profile over the life of the policy • Contributed surplus governed by constant liability / surplus ratio • Investment income on surplus dividended as earned • Operating earnings distributed in proportion to per period liability exposure

  12. Total Return Model Example • Total Return = Oper Return X Oper Levg + Invest Rate of Return on Surplus • 14.9% = 3.7% X 3.0 + 3.9% not risk-adjusted • 6.0% = 0.7% X 3.0 + 3.9% risk-adjusted basis • Oper Return = Und Rate of Return + Invest Rate of Return on PH “Float” • 3.7% = -0.2% + 3.9% not risk-adjusted • 0.7% = -0.2% + 3.9% - 3.0% risk-adjusted basis • CAPM Reference Data: • Risk-Free interest rate 6.0% 3.9% after-tax • Risk Premium 8.9% • Equity Beta 1.00 • Indicated cost of capital 14.9% • Liability Beta -0.52 • Indicated risk adjustment 4.6% 3.0% after-tax • Indicated risk-adjusted discount rate 1.4% 0.9% after-tax

  13. Simplified Ratemaking Spreadsheet

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