Early Identification of University of Technology Engineering Students at Risk

1. EarlyIdentification of Universityof Technology Engineering Students at Risk Barend J van Wyk

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4. Tshwane University of Technology (TUT) • One of 23 government funded institutions of higher learning • Seven faculties, including Engineering and the Built Environment • 55 000 students on 6 campuses • Engineering and Built Environment: 9 000 students WEEF 2012

5. South African Throughput Problem TUT : WEEF 2012

6. Reasons in literature • New National Senior Certificate (NSC) and the quality of the NSC as signal for higher education admission is still blurred (7). • Race and ethnicity, together with family income are factors that seriously impact on the experience of a disadvantaged student at HE, especially if the student is part of a minority group. • In other parts of the world the historically disadvantaged students are usually also a minority group (12, 13, 14 and 8), but in South Africa that is not the case. WEEF 2012

7. To investigate the early identification of students at risk in our National Diploma engineering programs using readily available pre- and post-admission variables, we formulated the following research questions: 1: What is the relationship between NSC results and academic performance during the first two years of the National Diploma for engineering students ? ; and 2: What is the relationship between academic achievement during the first two semesters and completing the National Diploma in Engineering ? WEEF 2012

8. Participants and Setting Participants in this study were 456 first year students from the 2009 first time entering National Diploma cohort and 274 first year candidates from the 2010 first time entering National Diploma cohort. This sample of 730 students is representative of the 2009 and 2010 first time entering cohorts. WEEF 2012

9. Independent Variables National Senior Certificate results: The Mathematics, Physical Science and English scores, as well as the Academic Potential Score (APS), i.e. the aggregate of all NSC subject scores excluding Life Orientation, were used. Mathematics I: The final results for Mathematics I, a first semester subject in the South African UoT National Diploma engineering curriculum, were used. Mathematics I predicate score: The final Mathematics I exam admission score, reflecting performance during the first four months of the semester, and counting 50% of a student’s final score, was used. % Subjects Passed Semester I % Subjects Passed Semester II WEEF 2012

10. Results WEEF 2012

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13. -1.4603 + 0.2613*(Mathematics I predicate as a %) + 0.7387*(% SubjectsPassedSemester I): 86 % accuratetopredict < 50% passed WEEF 2012

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16. 3.58 + 0.11*(% forMathematics I) + 0.90*(% SubjectsPassedSemester II): 91% accuratetopredictwhowillpass < 50% of subjects WEEF 2012

17. Conclusion 1: TheMathematics I score and percentagesubjectspassedafterone and twosemesterscouldbeused as reliableindicatorstoidentifystudents at risk and couldbeincorporated in anearlywarningsystemfordropout. Obviouslysuch a systemcouldincludeotherfactorssuch as communicationskills, financialdifficulties, quality of accommodation, distancefrom campus, family and socio economicsituation, overallacademic performance, etc. WEEF 2012

18. Conclusion 2: Nearly50% of thestudentsweadmittoourengineeringprograms are at riskrightfromthestart. Sincetheadmission of these at riskstudents are drivenbythenationalemphasisonaccess and byinstitutionalfinancialviabilityreasons, oursupportstructures and foundationprogramsshouldbestrengthened. WEEF 2012

19. Conclusion 3: Once studentswhoperformedmarginally in NSC weregiven a chance and afteroneortwosemestersand itbecomesclearthatengineeringisnotthebestoptionforthem, studentfriendlymobilitymechanismstootherprogramsneedtobeinvestigated. WEEF 2012