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Human-induced climate change Why I am sceptical

Coal Preparation Association, Mackay, 13th September 2101. Human-induced climate change Why I am sceptical. Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne. Ian Plimer. Constant cyclical climate change.

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Human-induced climate change Why I am sceptical

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  1. Coal Preparation Association, Mackay, 13th September 2101 Human-induced climate change Why I am sceptical Professor of Geology, University of AdelaideEmeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne Ian Plimer

  2. Constant cyclical climate change

  3. The next climate change: The future is written in the past

  4. Climate change over time

  5. Is the speed and degree of modern climate change unprecedented? 6 4 2 0 Today Temperature (°C) -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 400 300 200 100 0 Time – Thousands of Years Before Present

  6. Cooling with increasing CO2

  7. Temperature Location, location, location…..

  8. Urban heat island effect 23.5 Tucson U of Arizona (32.2N, 111.0W) 22.0 Annual Mean Temperature (°F) 20.0 18.5 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

  9. What is really measured? 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Temperature Trend per Decade 1940 - 1996 (°C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 Population of Country

  10. Reliability of surface measurements 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0 0 -0.5 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0 -0.5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 The 28 years of high quality satellite data Global Northern Hemisphere Temperature Variation (°C) Southern Hemisphere The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago, The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly

  11. Models for atmospheric temperature 10 10 10 10 NASA/NSIPP GFDL 50 50 50 50 100 100 100 100 200 200 200 200 300 300 300 300 500 500 500 500 700 700 700 700 950 950 950 950 60°S 60°S 60°S 60°S 30°S 30°S 30°S 30°S EQ EQ EQ EQ 30°N 30°N 30°N 30°N 60°N 60°N 60°N 60°N -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SNU NASA/GEOS5 Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO2 doubling (2xCO2-control), as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007)

  12. Radiosonde measurements 25 24 50 20 100 16 12 200 300 8 500 4 700 1000 75°N 45°N 30°N 15°N EQ 15°S 30°S 45°S 75°S No “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in reality hPa Km Source: HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP (2006), p116, fig. 5.7E

  13. We’ll all be rooned 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Measurement of historic sea levels Port Pirie -0.3mm/yr 2.4mm/yr Port Adelaide Outer Harbour Fort Denison 1.0mm/yr Sea Level (mm) 1.4mm/yr Fremantle Southern Oscillation Index Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)

  14. Smoothing of ice core CO2 data- why pre-industrial choice of 280ppm? from 1958 Mauna Loa CO2 5 year average Ice core Antarctica 450 400 350 300 270 1810 1850 1900 1950 1970 1812-2004 Northern Hemisphere, Chemical Measurement CO2 (ppmv) Year

  15. Water: Main greenhouse gas & driver of CO2 100% 0.001% Man made Natural 80% 60% 40% 20% 0.117% 0.066% 0.047% 0.047% 0% Water Vapour CO2 Methane N2O Misc Gases

  16. Doubling CO2 at 385ppmhas no effect 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 The warming effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide Temperature (°C) Atmospheric carbon dioxide in ppm

  17. Submarine volcanicity 45°30’N Recent Eruptions 45°00’N 44°30’N 130°30’W 130°00’W • Terrestrial volcanoes change weather (e.g. Tambora 1815) • Submarine supervolcanoes add heat and CO2 to oceans and change climate (64,000km ridges) • 10,000 km3/a of cooling water • >95% Earth’s volcanoes Megaplume 2 Megaplume 1 Seafloor Spreading

  18. Greenland ice sheet d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994 10per. Mov. Avg (d180 Site15 GISP2, Boltzman Strobel 1994) 80°N -30° -32° -34° -36° -38° 75°N -40° 20°W -42° 80°W 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1960 1975 1980 1985 70°N 30°W -29.5 -30 -30.5 65°N -31 -31.5 -32 60°N -32.5 1000 800 600 400 200 100 40°W 70°W 50°W 60°W 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 30 -30 5.4cm/yr increase* Greenland ice sheet change in cm/yr Year Time – Years Before Present *Derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003

  19. Is global warming melting the ice caps and reducing sea ice? NO! 1.0 0.5 0 -0.5 0° 30°W 30°E -1.0 Antarctic Peninsula 1978 1990 2000 2006 60°W 60°E -1.5 90°W Amundsen Sea 120°W 120°E Kamb Ice Stream 150°W 2000 Km 150°E 180° Antarctic Sea Ice Trends …. going up! Source: National Snow and Ice data Centre Year Antarctic Land Ice Trends …. going up over most of the continent! Source: Vaughn, D.G., 2005. Science, 3008, 1877-1878.

  20. Temperature proxy 4 2 0 -2 -4 280 -6 260 -8 240 220 1.5 200 1.0 0.5 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 H2O(vap) buffer to maximum and minimum temperature Temperature (°C) CO2 (ppmv) Dust (ppm) Thousands of Years Ago

  21. Temperature proxy 100 80 60 40 20 0 10,000BC 8,000BC 6,000BC 4,000BC 2,000BC 1AD 2000AD -30 Modern Maximum Medieval Maximum -20 Dalton Minimum -10 Spörer Minimum Maunder Minimum Temperature (°C) 0 Oort Minimum 10 Wolf Minimum 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 Calendar Years Before Present Cosmogenic isotopes (C14; also Be10, Al26, Cl36, Ca41, Ti44, I129)

  22. It’s easy to stop climate change - All we have to do is: • STOP bacteria doing what bacteria do • STOP ocean currents changing • STOP plate tectonics and continent movement • STOP orbital changes to Earth • STOP variations in energy released from Sun • STOP orbit of Solar System in Galaxy • STOP supernoval eruptions • When we’ve stopped these natural processes, • if human-induced then: • PERSUADE China and India to stay poor

  23. A few little problems Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO2 rise only correlates with 1975-1998 warming) Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present) Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th Century solar maximum and no sunspots Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years Greater past variability and changes Six of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2 up to 1000 times higher than now Arctic warming (fanfare); Antarctic, oceanic (PDO) and atmospheric cooling (silence)

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