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Independent Power Producers Forum

Independent Power Producers Forum. “ Update on Pan Asian Energy Development” A Presentation from Independent Power Producers Forum (IPPF) At e8-GEF-UNDESA-UNESCAP “ Financing Sustainable Electrification” South & South-East Asia Dialogues Bangkok, Thailand, September 8-10, 2009

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Independent Power Producers Forum

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  1. Independent Power Producers Forum “Update on Pan Asian Energy Development” A Presentation from Independent Power Producers Forum (IPPF) At e8-GEF-UNDESA-UNESCAP“ Financing Sustainable Electrification”South & South-East Asia Dialogues Bangkok, Thailand, September 8-10, 2009 By Joel B. Laykin Secretary General

  2. Brief History IPPF’s Role – How it all came about. IPP’s a definition

  3. Aggreko Aon AEI Asia Ltd Asian Power Solutions Black & Veatch Caterpillar Asia Chevron International City Power CLP Power CRA International Cormetech Inc. Diaz, Reus, Rolff & Targ Our Members - 1

  4. DLA Piper EESCO P2E2 HK Emerson Process ExxonMobil Energy Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher Golden Concord Indra Systems 1 Laykin Communications Litamos International Marsh Marubeni Asia Mayer Brown JSM Nemron Energy O’Melveny & Myers Our Members - 2

  5. PB Power PennWell Inc PetroVietnam Pinsent Masons PUFFA Ltd RSW Inc. Solvina International R.W. Beck Int’l Simmons & Simmons Vista International WestLB AG Worley Parsons Our Members - 3

  6. Independent Power Producers Forum “Update on Pan Asian Energy Development” Presentation at e8-GEF_UNDESA-UNESCAPFinancing Sustainable Electrification South & South-East Asia Dialogues Bangkok, Thailand September 8th – 10th, 2009

  7. 1. Energy Values…The Challenge (Basic Questions) • How to change the behavior of seven billion people? • How to deliver the “good life” without ending life on this planet? • How to turn “Being Green” into being profitable

  8. 2. Redefining GHG • CDM vrs APP plus Kyoto plus Bali, plus COP-15 • Who’s trading what and where? • “Carbon” as the New International Currency

  9. 3. The ABCD’s of Energy A. Supply of Energy B. Demand for Energy C. Sources of Fuels D. Uses of Fuels

  10. 4. Changing Concerns– Some Solutions from East Asia • Metropolitan Asia leads the way with the convergence of capital, technology and official commitment • Hong Kong, Singapore and (supposedly) Shanghai are key facilitators for every possible element, company, sector in the power generation industry in Asia (?) • Fuel supplies, transportation, improved regulators

  11. 5. Marketplace Sophistication • Negatives – the UNOCAL Debacle • Positives - Future Gen - PRC’s economy of scale

  12. 6. The “Gold Rush” - 1 • Fools rush in where angels fear to tread • Over eighty companies • Western “model” didn’t work. PRC simply wasn’t ready ….. ..or willing • Divide and conquer

  13. 7. The “Gold Rush” - 2 • The exodus float out on a sea of red-ink and “Rome is burning back home” • Exceptions to the rule, a select few “stay the course” • “Last man standing”------ Colin Tam (Nov, 2004)

  14. 8. Because …it’s there! • Why why why do they do it? • If you are a global player with no substantial presence in Asia by 2020, you are not a global player any more.

  15. 9. Some Interesting Quotes - 1 • “ Stateside power companies dare not look overseas because the analysts will punish them”……John Easton (Mar 2004) • “And, why should they? There is so much low-hanging fruit to keep them busy in the USA”……Bill Ruccius (Dec 2007)

  16. 10. Some More Interesting Quotes - 2 • Expectation – “Everyone thought that the repeal of “PUHCA” would unleash a new tidal wave of power investment into Asia”…...Thomas Bispham (Jun 2008) • Predictions – Perhaps in a generation, the big U.S. investors, might return ……Robert Bestani (Feb 2006)

  17. 11. The PUHCA Paradox - 1 • 1935-2005, seventy years of commercial handcuffs • A good thing in 1935 • A bad thing by 1985

  18. 12. The PUHCA Paradox - 2 • Long delayed M & A “feeding frenzy…..in slow motion • Prediction – “Within a decade, the approx 200 U.S. IPPs will be reduced to about 60-70 with a half dozen 1200 lbs Gorillas ready to grow overseas”…..Joel Laykin (Mar 2008)

  19. 13. The Asian Way • China and India reach out, HK, Singapore, KL, BKK, Tokyo and the Gulf reach in • The 1200 lbs gorillas will have to frolic in Africa or South America • Asian players snapping up low and middle – hanging fruit

  20. 14. Some more Over-Arching Issues and Quotes • “The most important bilateral relationship in the world relationship in the world today is that of the USA and the PRC”……Secretary James Baker III (Sept 2007) • “Energy security is the only thing people really do something about”…..Bill Overholt (Oct 2009)

  21. Thank You ! Independent Power Producers Forum Contact Information: Email: group@laykinhk.com Tel: 852-2894 8105 Fax: 852-25775817 Website:www.ippfpowerasia.com

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