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SASCOF 2010 Météo-France GCM forecasts

This article discusses the Meteo-France forecasting suite, focusing on SSTs seasonal forecasts and general circulation forecasts. It provides summaries of the forecasts and highlights key features.

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SASCOF 2010 Météo-France GCM forecasts

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  1. SASCOF 2010Météo-France GCM forecasts JP. Céron – Météo-France Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr

  2. Outline • Météo-France forecasting suite • SSTs Seasonal Forecasts • General Circulation Forecasts • Rainfall Seasonal Forecasts • Summary

  3. The Meteo-France Operationnal Suite • « Mercator » version of Arpège (v 4) : Reading Euro-SIP (Multi-Models) Météo-France WMO Global Bulletin Users DClim Toulouse

  4. The Meteo-France Operationnal Suite • Coupled Model version 3 • Atmosphere : Arpege 4.4, t63l91 (same levels than ECMWF analysis), • Ocean : OPA & Orca grid (31 vertical levels ~10m close to the surface and ~500 m below 3000 m, 2° resolution with 0.5° meridional resolution in the tropics), • Coupling : Oasis v2.4, • Mercator reanalysis : 1979 – 2007, new assimilation scheme using insitu data and altimetry, • Hindcast : over the 1979-2007 period, 11 members, 7 month range run, • Operationnal : 41 membres, 7 month range run, • Availability : end of the year, beginning of 2008

  5. Outline • Météo-France forecasting suite • SSTs Seasonal Forecasts • General Circulation Forecasts • Rainfall Seasonal Forecasts • Summary

  6. SSTs Seasonal Forecast – GlobalMJJ 2010 SST anomaly (ensemble mean)

  7. SSTs Seasonal Forecast – JJA & JAS Global SST anomaly (ensemble mean)

  8. SSTs Seasonal Forecast Niño3.4 Pacific : Niño boxes

  9. SSTs Seasonal Forecast Indian Ocean : OOPC boxes

  10. SSTs Seasonal Forecast Recap • Pacific : • evolution toward colder condition in the Central and Eastern Pacific • La Niña event later ? • Indian Ocean : • Quite warm conditions everywhere (notably in Western part) • DMI close to neutral • Good stability of the SST forecast over the MJJ to JAS period

  11. Outline • Météo-France forecasting suite • SSTs Seasonal Forecasts • General Circulation Forecasts • Rainfall Seasonal Forecasts • Summary

  12. Probabilistic forecasts for MJJ 2010General Circulation Stream Function 200hPa Consistent signal leading to less favourable convective conditions on the half northern part of India and South-East Asia Monsoon onset delayed (notably in North India) ? Khi200 JJA Khi200 JAS Velocity Potential 200hPa

  13. Probabilistic forecasts for MJJ 2010General Circulation V 850hPa • Circulation in the low troposphere • Zonal circulation weakened in the South Hemisphere (Indian Ocean) and strengthenned in the Northern hemisphere (East IO and Pacific) • Meridional circulation strengthenned (West IO) U 850hPa

  14. Outline • Météo-France forecasting suite • SSTs Seasonal Forecasts • General Circulation Forecasts • Rainfall Seasonal Forecasts • Summary

  15. Probabilistic forecasts of precipitationMJJ – JJA – JAS 2010 MJJ JJA Indian region : Rainfall enhanced on the southern part (GCM discrepancy ?) South-East Asia : Rainfall enhanced notably in JJA JAS

  16. Probability of extreme rainfall scenariosMJJ – JJA – JAS 2010 Below – 1 std MJJ JJA JAS Above + 1 std

  17. Summary • The forecast for the MJJ 2010 indicates : • - an evolution toward cold SST anomalies over the Equatorial tropical Pacific (which should persists during all the summer season) • - a relatively warm SST over the Indian Ocean (notably Western part) for all the summer season • - Above normal Rainfall in the southern part of the Indian continent andin South-East Asia. • Enhanced probability of “extreme” rainfall scenario over these regions • - Indian monsoon onset possibly delayed in the Northern part .

  18. The Meteo-France Operationnal Suite

  19. Probabilistic forecasts of T2mMJJ – JJA – JAS 2010 MJJ JJA Indian region : T2m warmer than normal notably on West cost and Northern part of India South-East Asia : T2m above normal in MJJ JAS

  20. SST ROC skill : MJJ tercile categories Fcst prob. Skill (1987-2001) outer-quintile categories Fcst prob. Skill (1987-2001) Lower Tercile Upper Tercile

  21. Rainfall ROC skill : MJJ tercile categories Fcst prob. Skill (1987-2001) outer-quintile categories Fcst prob. Skill (1987-2001) Lower Tercile Upper Tercile

  22. T2m ROC skill : MJJ tercile categories Fcst prob. Skill (1987-2001) outer-quintile categories Fcst prob. Skill (1987-2001) Lower Tercile Upper Tercile

  23. Thank you for attention

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