Sustainable Capacity in Value, Biomass & Carbon What Models Provide

1. Sustainable Capacityin Value, Biomass & CarbonWhat Models Provide James D. Arney, Ph.D. Forest Biometrics Research Institute Missoula, Montana Society of American Foresters, National Convention Albuquerque, New Mexico October 28, 2010

2. Forest Measurements & Models • 1930-1950s USDA Yield Tables • 1960s Angle Gauges & Stand Density • 1970s CFI and Silviculture Studies • Computerized Cruise Compilers & Inventory • Computerized Growth Models • Private Research Cooperatives • 1980-1990s One Scientist – One Model • Decline in Public Funding for Growth & Yield Research

3. 2010 Growth Model Status

4. National Capacity in Forestry Research National Research Council, Washington, DC - 2002

5. 2010 Growth & Silviculture • 2002 National Research Council Report • “National Capacity in Forestry Research has waned even as need for enhanced technical knowledge has increased.” • “Forestry Research Capacity at a crossroads, if not a precipice.” • Significant Restructuring has Occurred • Growth Model R&D dropped from Public Sector • Experiment Stations & Universities lost focus • College Preparation is inadequate foundation • Forest Industry has limited staff & skill sets

6. “Where To From Here” (Arney) • Two - Four Regional Forestry Colleges • A “Working” Experimental Forest • Public Demonstration of “Working Forest” • Fully Sustainable and Working Harvest Plan • Active Research Trials in Applied Silviculture • Continuing Education in Forest Methods • A Regional Forestry Research Center • On-going Silvicultural Research Trials • Reference Point for Forest Yield Capacities • On-going Technical Support to Forest Industry

7. Forest Biometrics Research Institute (FBRI) Mission • Research • Site Capacity, Taper, Silviculture & Growth • Regional Non-Parametric Libraries for All Species • Relational Database Software & Support • FBRI-Certified Regional Species Libraries • Education • Forest Inventory – Workshops & Methods • Growth, Yield and Silviculture Workshops • Harvest Scheduling & Planning Workshops • Service • Direct Technical Assistance as Requested • On-Site Participation in Research & Operations • Phone Conferencing & Web Site Downloads • Tutorial & Research Documents and Publications • IRS Tax-exempt, Non-profit since 2003

8. 1996 Release of FPS Model • Tree List, Distant Dependent Structure • External Species Libraries by Region • Non-Parametric Models • Site Capacity (Soil, Climate, Topography) • Competition for Light, Water, Nutrients • Species Capacity, Tolerance and Range • Genetic Capacity and Range • Vigor versus Disease, Pests, Weather and Fire • Balanced Orthogonal Sample Designs

9. The Forest Projection System (FPS) • Forest Inventory Relational Database • Stand Polygon - #, Type, Size • Cruise Selection / Cruise Compiler • Cruise Expansion • Re-Merchandiser • Habitat Classification • Growth and Yield Model (Individual-tree, DD) • Species, Size mixtures (natural, planted & regeneration) • Localized Site, Clumpiness, Taper relationships • Silviculture effects (Site Prep, Brush, Animal, Thin, Fert, Prune) • Linked GIS Database – Live FPS  GIS Interface • Harvest Scheduling Model • Stand & Neighbor (GIS) Spatial Constraints • Watershed Constraints (basin forest cover) • Wildlife Constraints (nesting sites) • Ownership Constraints (pre-assigned & periodic set asides)

10. Current FBRI Databases • Over 23,000 Permanent Research Plots • 75,000 Observations of Growth & Yield • 3,000,000 Tree Measurements • Up to 70 Years of Observation • Over Twenty Species Represented • $75 Million Dollar Investment ($1,000/Msmt) • All Databases in Standardized Format

12. FPS Regional Species Libraries • Oregon Cascades – 1996, 2006 • Western Washington – 1997, 2006 • Central Washington – 1999, 2006 • North Idaho & Western Montana – 1999, 2006 • Central Oregon – 1998, 2006 • Northern California – 2000, 2006 • Oregon Coast Range – 2006 • Southwest British Columbia – 1995, 2006 • Southeast Alaska – 2009 • Canadian Shield – 1995 • Hawaiian Islands – 1999 • Southern Pine Forests – 2006, 2008 • Great Lakes Region – 2006, 2008 • Interior British Columbia – 1987 • Alberta – Saskatchewan – 1988 • Proprietary Localized Regional Libraries – 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010

13. Douglas-fir Western hemlock Mountain hemlock Grand fir White fir Sub-alpine fir Silver fir Noble fir Sitka spruce Englemann spruce White spruce Black spruce Pacific yew Rocky mountain juniper Alaska yellow cedar Western red cedar Western larch Western white pine Ponderosa pine Lodgepole pine Jack pine Sugar pine Coast Redwood Eucalyptus grandis Eucalyptus saligna Eucalyptus deglupta Queensland maple Bigleaf maple Red Alder Black cottonwood Quaking aspen Tan oak Species in FBRI Libraries

14. Regional Trends Site & Genetic Effects Silviculture Effects

15. 10-Meter Site Index • Record Age Ring Count at 10 meter Height • Record Age Ring Count at 20 meter Height • Difference in Ring Count is 10m Site Index • 10m Site = 100 / Difference in Years • = height growth in meters / decade • 50yr Site = 30 + 10 * 10mSite • 25yr Site = 30 + 5 * 10mSite

19. What Models Provide • Define & Quantify Sustainable Capacity • Impact of Rotation Lengths • Impacts of Early Silvicultural Gains • Comparison of Silvicultural Systems • Clearcut > Seed-Tree > Shelterwood > Selection • Quantify Yields – Volume, Biomass, Carbon • Species Selection and Genetic Gains • Silvicultural Investment Alternatives • Impacts of Riparian & Wildlife Constraints • Defensible Basis for Decision-making • FBRI-Certified Regional Species Libraries

20. Conclusions • Long-term Forest Planning & Investment Decisions • The Tools and Methods Exist for Decision-making based 40 years of G&Y Research • The 2002 NSC Report identifies lack of R&D focus • A “Working Forest” reference point is needed • Forest Industry in U.S. to Survive and Grow • Must Invest in On-going Research & Support • Must have access to Technology & Education • Reference point for Forest Yield Capacities

22. Professional Inventory / Planning Forester40,000 – 300,000 Acre Tree Farm • Typically One Person In Organization • B.S. Degree from Forestry School • 3 – 15 Years Professional Experience • Reports Inventory & Harvest Plans Annually • Responsible for Inventory Cruise & Depletions • Responsible for Silvicultural Planning & Costs • Responsible for Harvest Levels & Plan • Responsible for Assessing All Constraints • Knows the Sustainable Capacity of the Forest

23. Every Professional Forester must know:End of Sophomore Year • Forest sampling (stands), Stand sampling (Plots), Sub-sampling (Trees, shrubs, snags) • Inventory maintenance (MS-Access), PC-based GIS, Acreage adjustments for roads and buffers • Harvest Depletions & Annual Reporting • Annual sampling frequency and intensity • Site capacity, distribution and verification • Habitat classification and update methods

24. Every Professional Forester must know:End of Junior Year • Inventory growth projection methods • Applications, Constraints, Validation • Silvicultural systems and yield differences • Clearcut regimes, preferred species & densities • Seed Tree regimes, regeneration systems • Shelterwood regimes, habitat implications • Selection regimes, single-tree versus group • Forest health, vigor, regeneration, tolerance • Site Preparation, Vegetation Management • Thinning, Pruning & Fertilization Methods

25. Every Professional Forester must know:End of Senior Year • Harvest scheduling methods linked to GIS • Hydro, Wildlife, Watershed & Neighbors • Planning for 100 years versus 10 years • Impact and silviculture of 2nd & 3rd rotations • Standards of merchandising and valuation • Regulation by Area, Volume, Value or NPV • Harvest polygons versus Stand polygons • Managing a Forest versus Managing a Stand

27. FBRI Structure 2002 - 2005 • Research Program w/ Univ of Montana • College of Forestry, offices at no cost • Kelsey Milner, Ph.D., endowed professor & host • Jim Arney, Ph.D., volunteer biometrician • Chuck Vopicka, M.S., employee, technical support • Graduate students, technical support services • Operating Budget • Initially $30,000 building to $100,000/yr • Endowment held by Univ. Montana Foundation

28. FBRI Structure 2006 - 2010 • Independent Research Corporation 501c3 • IRS Status approved as of August 13, 2002 • Re-located to Western Oregon • Full-time M.S. Biometrician – Brian Kleinhenz • Volunteer Biometricians: • Jim Arney, Ph.D. and Kelsey Milner, Ph.D. • Part-time Business Manager – JoAnn Arney • Annual Income $140,000 (2007 – 2010) • Additional contractual Income - $50,000 /year

29. FBRI Structure 2011+ • Independent Research Corporation 501c3 • Re-located back to Western Montana • Contracted Ph.D. Biometrician – Jim Arney • Contracted Technical Support – Chuck Vopicka • Contracted Workshop & Accounts – WF&CA • Contracted Web Support – Nora McDougall • Contracted Software Support – Kevin Gehringer • Contracted Endowment Mgmt – Ameriprise

30. FBRI Board of Directors

31. FBRI 2011 Activities • 2011 Funding Requests remain at $0.02/acre • Board to develop draft 5-year plan - 1st Qtr. • Advisory Committee becomes active • One member identified from each organization • 5-year plan reviews – 2nd and 3rd Quarters • Workshop Schedules continue w/WF&CA • FPS Version 7.0 is completed & distributed • Ownership of FPS software transfers to FBRI • Full rights to databases & libraries transfers • Year-end FBRI Meeting w/Final Plan