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Disruptive Demographics and North Carolina’s Education Challenges

May 2012. Disruptive Demographics and North Carolina’s Education Challenges. James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. OVERVIEW. Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities

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Disruptive Demographics and North Carolina’s Education Challenges

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  1. May 2012 Disruptive Demographics and North Carolina’s Education Challenges James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  2. OVERVIEW • Demographic Trends • Challenges & Opportunities • Discussion

  3. CENSUS 2010 what will REVEAL May 2012

  4. The South Continues To Rise ...Again!

  5. STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010

  6. THE “BROWNING” OF NORTH CAROLINA

  7. NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY, 1990-2007

  8. NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY, 1990-2007

  9. CONTRIBUTIONS OF NON-WHITES & HISPANICS TO NC POPULATION CHANGE, 2000-2010 Source: Census 2000 and Census 2010. *Non-whites include Blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Alaskan Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians & Pacific Islanders, and people of two or more races.

  10. OUT-MARRIAGE PATTERNS BY RACE AND GENDER, NC 2005-2009

  11. MEDIAN AGE & FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN NC, 2005-2009 . • Source: American Community Survey • *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months

  12. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

  13. CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC SCHOOLS, 2000-2009 . • Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online

  14. NC’s SILVER TSUNAMI

  15. NC ABSOLUTE POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2010

  16. COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA’S WELL And Grandpa’s Too!

  17. GRANDPARENTS LIVING WITH GRANDCHILDREN AGES 18 AND YOUNGER IN NORTH CAROLINA

  18. The End of Men?

  19. THE PLIGHT OF MEN • Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to 1969. • Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. • The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). • Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. • After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

  20. COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010

  21. ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR COLLEGES, 2009

  22. UNC SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010

  23. JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) – 2009 (Q3) RECESSION

  24. UNEVEN GROWTH

  25. NC COUNTIES WITH THE LARGEST ABSOLUTE POPULATION GAINS, 2000-2010

  26. NC COUNTIES EXPERIENCING POPULATION DECLINE,  2000-2010

  27. GROWING DEPENDENCY A Train Wreck in the Making

  28. DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTH Source: Census 2010

  29. DEPENDENCY RATES FOR SELECTED SOUTHERN STATES, 2006-2010

  30. SHIFTING DEMOGRAPHY & POPULATION WELL-BEING

  31. NC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEXES BY ECONOMIC TIER DESIGNATION

  32. RACIAL DIFFERENCES IN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

  33. DIVERSITY RULES ...but Challenges Abound

  34. RACIAL TYPOLOGY OF NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES, 2010

  35. LONG TERM TRENDS IN READING ACHIEVEMENT – NC GRADE 4

  36. LONG TERM TRENDS IN MATH ACHIEVEMENT – NC GRADE 4

  37. LONG TERM TRENDS IN READING ACHIEVEMENT – NC GRADE 8

  38. LONG TERM TRENDS IN MATH ACHIEVEMENT – NC GRADE 8

  39. Education is Necessary ...but insufficient

  40. AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION

  41. AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION

  42. THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED, 2009

  43. CHANGE IN INCIDENCE OF POVERTY BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN NC, 2005-2007, 2008-2010 • Source: American Community Survey

  44. THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT • Analytical Reasoning • Entrepreneurial Acumen • Contextual Intelligence • Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity • Agility and Flexibility

  45. MOVING FORWARD • Rebrand NC as a sustainable place to live and do business • Improve Male Education Outcomes • Augment efforts to recruit plants with strategies to recruit people • Embrace immigrants • Recognize business development & job creation potential of elder care economy, diverse ethnic markets, & nascent freelance economy.

  46. Global Scholars Academy

  47. Global Scholars Academy Lab School Youth Psychological Services Underprivileged Youth Family Management Technological Innovations in Learning Tutors Remediation in the Basics Mentors NC Standard Course of Study Health and Wellness Entrepreneurship & Financial Literacy Global Awareness Character Education After-school/Extended Day Cultural Enrichment Fine Arts Fitness Soft Skills Networking Preparatory School

  48. The North Carolina Minority Male Bridge to Success Project

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