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Demography left the descriptive style

I mpact of demographic change Mary REDEI, D.Sc. HU Regional Informatics Ltd. ADAPT2D C Transnational Study tour Budapest, 20-22. May 2014. Demography left the descriptive style. Foresight : t he future of the past based on relationship, explanation, how the structure limits the flow?

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Demography left the descriptive style

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  1. Impact of demographic changeMary REDEI, D.Sc.HURegionalInformatics Ltd.ADAPT2DC Transnational Study tour Budapest, 20-22. May 2014

  2. Demography left the descriptive style • Foresight: the future of the past based on relationship, explanation, how the structure limits the flow? • Border of demography extended like: economical activity, graduation, ethnicity, religious, household.. • If theprocess of demography is in harmony, not much attentionfollows, pro-action… • But now, decreasing, ageing, no natural reproduction, rising mobility. • Why are theseproblems? How can we benefit?

  3. Main pop trends • No natural reproduction. Half of 35y girls have no child! Under replacement level, life expectancies slowly rising, but still… • Demographic behaviour rapidly changing, vulnerability of life. • Cohort size varied from220 to 85 thousands/y, (old) dependency ratio is growing, young 0,23 old 0,39 (0,85!) these are challenges for institutional utilisation, propagative number limits the expectation. • See the evolution of age tree.

  4. Population development of Hungary

  5. Replacementmovement • 300 immigrants + 200 staying permit holders, 600 working +50 studying abroad +illegal, seasonal and circular migrants. 12% of working age. • Without immigration the population decrease would have been more rapid. 200 had got Hungarian citizenship and live here. Two-thirds of them live near thecapital. • The small territorial level’s centrums are 4 times attractivecomparedtotheir periphery. Better educated, younger people. External HR resources – new task their re-engineering. • MrMax Fischer:‚we called workers and human arrived.’ Migration extended from worker to family. • Freemovement is notequaltofree access to social services

  6. International flow of Hungary

  7. Ageing • Raising awareness of inhabitants, common and individual responsibility. • Living longer in health, living away, growing generation age-distance→1990. Around age of 20y to give birth to first child, nowadays it is over 30y. • Micro spatial distribution: living alone 32%, from this old household 53%. • Macro spatial distribution: access to oversized infrastructure, citizen right versa Constitution, how the service companies should be ready to do so? Profit or gratis? Who will compensate?

  8. Number of settlements by population categories

  9. Spatialdistribution • Rural: farmers aging, how to cultivate the land? Revitalization of life on economical basis or social ones? PC illiteracy and E-governance? • City: low mobility level, specially old people, high maintenance cost, more and different institutional placement expected on XXI century level. • Suburban area: early ´90 started without city governance, orientation. Particular way –local bargain, eg.35 y→60y, no physical -mental interest and effort to enjoy the green. No big family, real estate supply! • Border area: isolation →CBC, real estate boom, two ways flow, interactive contact zone, speciallytoCroatia, Ukraine, Slovakia.

  10. Double globaleffects • from 2008 Schengen free flow area, and economical-financial crisis, • The western demographic behaviours spread versus the eastern structure. Fertility, causes of deaths. • Silver economy +elderly immigration to Hungary. Former Romanian emigrants gained Austrian citizenship and return to ethnic life.

  11. Population by age structuresource: Budget Act

  12. Half of population lives in red lane Three national borders3X3 structure

  13. Productivity of individuals in a closed economy and in a market economy • Underinvest to accumulate intellectual capital during socialism. • FDI was able to recruit eligible HR from labour-market, but in 1993 opened job fairs, direct from universities. • Recently, over 30y by proven experience in CV, despite of having a residence and job they moved to abroad for carrier, for better life style, be cosmopolitan, take a chance…

  14. Népesség százalékos változása településenként, 2041 (2011. október 1. népesség=100%)

  15. Build environment • Social and technical infrastructure↔ citizen right/severely disabled • Housing structure: expanded, but not appropriate to their age. • Internal mobility:permanent flow from East to West, South to Nord. 1950-60: activity modification from agriculture to industry, concentratedtoBudapest. 1960-75:housing and employment motivation, state construction. 1975-90: urban network extension, block of houses and private construction on perspectives. 1992-2007:employment to urban + suburban, no state investmentinhousing. 2008-beyond the border. • new partnership had formed in housing in western border area. Eg.: car assembly company (e.g.: AUDI) +newly internal mobile worker ( Mr XY) +property owner (landlord) • Emigrationcreats depopulated settlements.

  16. Economicalimpact • IMF: social and regional disparities limit the sustainable development. • Biological gain and loss. No social load in sending case. • Human development: graduation, skill, ability experience • Livinglonger→ late start and life events shift • Immigrants pay more tax than their social claim, • Tax paying foreigners 7% in capital, 3% other counties, loss from emigration, • remittances received (2,3 b$)1,8% GDP 42. ranked, sent (1,1 b$) 0,9 % GDP 36. ranked. • Missing thetax payersthereforemissingtax, the production is not here!

  17. Somequestion and re-mark • Separate the pro-action policy from the re-action policy, for example early warning system. • Increase and strengthen the capability to affiliate based on mutually agreements, • How can we expect solution from an inflexible system? • Who will compensate the difference and whether on economical or on social basis action?

  18. Thanks for your attention and remarks redeymari@gmail.com

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