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“What We’re Watching to Identify the Economic Recovery”. June 3, 2009. Richard Yamarone Director of Economic Research Argus Research Corp. Hoping for a “V”-Shaped Recovery. Leading Indicators Signal Some Degree of Recovery. The Most Convincing Argument of Recovery.
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“What We’re Watching to Identify the Economic Recovery” June 3, 2009 Richard Yamarone Director of Economic Research Argus Research Corp.
A-D-S Business Conditions Index Improving Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Monetary Policy… Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Risks to “V”-Shaped Recovery… • Auto Industry Collapse • Commodity (Food), Energy, Healthcare Inflation • (price pass alongs announced during the quarterly earning season) • Stimulus Fails to Generate Jobs • Consumers Decide to Save • Jobs Climate Deteriorates Further
Reasons for Optimism… • Massive Monetary Stimulus in Pipeline • Large Stimulus of Falling Energy Prices • Government Has Approved Whopping Fiscal Spending Program • Home Prices Have Returned to Pre-Bubble Levels • Frozen Credit Markets Have Thawed Considerably