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FROM SCENARIOS TO MANAGEMENT CLASSES: ECOLOGICAL COMPONENT DEMONSTRATION

FROM SCENARIOS TO MANAGEMENT CLASSES: ECOLOGICAL COMPONENT DEMONSTRATION Presented by: Delana Louw (Rivers for Africa) 26 November 2013. NWRCS integrated steps. ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES TO SCENARIOS. Determining ecological consequences of scenarios.

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FROM SCENARIOS TO MANAGEMENT CLASSES: ECOLOGICAL COMPONENT DEMONSTRATION

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  1. FROM SCENARIOS TO MANAGEMENT CLASSES: ECOLOGICAL COMPONENT DEMONSTRATION Presented by: Delana Louw (Rivers for Africa) 26 November 2013

  2. NWRCS integrated steps ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES TO SCENARIOS

  3. Determining ecological consequences of scenarios • Need to answer the ‘what if’ questions • Express in terms of change in Ecological Category • Detailed process to predict changes in all the biophysical components per site and per scenario. • Then to integrate and demonstrate in systems context • Include in MC DSS process

  4. Determining ecological consequences of scenarios Geomorphology Geomorphology Physico-chemical Physico-chemical Fish Fish Macroinvertebrates Macroinvertebrates Consequences Consequences Riparian vegetation Riparian vegetation Model scenarios PREDICT CONSEQUENCES ECOSTATUS PES Provide Ecological Categories for each of components and PES EWRs for PES and REC Above process undertaken for: Each EWR site & Each scenario THEN INTEGRATED (USING A WEIGHTED SYSTEM) TO PROVIDE A SYSTEMS CONSEQUENCE

  5. Typical water resource system – status quo Small Dams SFRs Trout farming, recreation, dry-land agric Forestry Releases down river for irrigation, urban and industrial Irrigation from canal Rural Irrigation Gorge, protected area Rural Rural: Subsistence, settlements Nature Reserve Key biophysical sites (EWR sites) Desktop biophysical sites Irrigation Irrigation. Town at estuary, industrial (canal & pipeline) Industrial Urban Estuary

  6. EcoClassification 1 Small Dams REC D PES E SFRs 2 REC B PES B 3 4 REC D PES D REC C PES C Rural 5 6 Irrigation PES B REC B REC B PES B/C Rural Nature Reserve 7 Irrigation REC C River PES C 8 Industrial Estuary PES: E Urban REC D Estuary

  7. Scenario description: Matrix

  8. Scenario description

  9. ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES 1 SFRs Small Dams 3 Sc B and C achieve the REC as they both include EWR releases and no unseasonal releases. Sc D shows some improvement All Sc maintain REC except for Sc A. Issues are no EWR releases, unseasonal releases DS. Rural 5 Irrigation Rural Only Sc B and C achieves the REC as consist of removing of effluent Nature Reserve 7 Irrigation 8 All Sc maintain REC except for Sc A. Issues are no EWR releases, unseasonal releases DS. Industrial Urban Estuary

  10. Ecological protection relative to REC 1 Sc B, C Sc B, C Sc B, C, D Sc B, C, D Sc B, C Sc D Sc A ! Sc A Sc B, C Sc D Sc A Sc A, D Degree to which ecological objectives (REC) are met Sc A 0 EWR 3 EWR 5 EWR 7 EST System

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