From Models to Decisions

1. From Models to Decisions Amir Hakami Carleton University

2. Where do models fit? • Emissions are the only variable we can control. • Use models to provide Policymakers with tangible “decision metrics”. Meteorology Transport and Transformation Pollution Emissions Health Influences Health Outcome Exposure

3. Improving air quality • Reducing emissions is costly. • Assessing the benefits of emission reductions in terms that are comparable with costs (i.e., monetized) enhances the decision-making process. • What is the cost of action vs. inaction?

4. Benefit from one average vehicle • Value for Toronto and coastal California: $400-$800/yr • Estimated benefit from the Toronto subway: $130,000,000/yr • NB: A fraction of benefits (non-fatal, long-term, or PM effects not included) Pappin and Hakami, 2013

5. Health benefits: marginal benefit/damage Mobile sources Point sources • What the numbers mean? • Marginal benefits are key decision parameters.

6. Health benefits are substantial Abatement costs Health damage Marginal benefits and costs of NOx emission reductions from power plants in the US. Mesbah et al., 2013

7. Bonus: increasing benefits with controls! Mobile Sources Point Sources

8. Next steps for air quality scientists • Facilitate integrated assessment. • Enhance our communication skills with other disciplines. • Quantify/reduce various uncertainties in our understanding of processes that affect air quality. • Uncertainty is not a justified reason for inaction.

9. Next steps for air quality scientists - II Decision model Air quality model McRae and Cass (1981)

10. Next steps for air quality scientists - III Decision model Air quality model

11. Comments/questions Thank you! Funding provided by NSERC, CIHR, Environment Canada, Health Canada

12. Rate of change in marginal damage $ Marginal cost Marginal damage Emission level New optimal level