American Community Survey

1. American Community Survey Prepared for “Census 2011: Impact and Potential” July 8, 2011 Sharon Stern U.S. Census Bureau

2. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Outline • ACS Background • Methodology Elements • Challenges for Operations • Challenges for Data Users • Summary and Resources

3. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources ACS Mission, Goals, and Objectives Why ACS? • Focus the decennial on the count • Provide more current information • Minimize burden in a given year, maximize operational efficiencies, improve data quality What makes ACS unique? • Timely, high-quality, consistent demographic, social, economic, and housing data for small geographic areas and diverse population groups.

4. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Recent ACS History First data released for nation and areas 250,000+ First 5-yr. est. released for areas of all sizes First 3-yr. est. released for areas more than 20,000 First 1-yr est. released for areas more than 65,000 Demonstration Period: evaluated operational feasibility and survey quality Expanded to full sample of HUs in all counties in 50 states, DC & PR GQs added Implemented new and modified content to meet emerging need.

5. Implementation Phase, 2005-? 5

6. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources ACS Content Policy • New content for the ACS is determined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in consultation with Census in response to the needs of Federal Agencies • Consider issues such as: • Frequency of data collection • Level of geographic detail needed • Other sources of data • OMB’s responsibility to ensure that respondent burden kept to minimum

7. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources ACS and the Decennial Census

8. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Outline • ACS Background • Methodology Elements • Sample design • Data collection • Estimation • Challenges for Operations • Challenges for Data Users • Summary and Resources

9. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Housing Unit Sampling • Sample from the Master Address File (MAF) • Continually updated and maintained • First Stage Sampling • Partitions universe into five nationally representative groups – county; achieves unduplication across five year periods • Second Stage Sampling • Independent county sub-samples of first-stage sample • Base rate recalculated each year • Target sampling rates assigned to census tracts and small governmental units based on estimated occupied housing units • New sample strata and sample size introduced in 2010

10. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Household Data Collection • Three sequential modes of data collection are used over a 3-month time period to collect survey data for each sample panel • Self-response on a paper questionnaire • Telephone response with computer-assisted interviewing • In-person response with computer-assisted interviewing

11. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations 2009 ACS Approximate workload: 229,000 cases per month Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Mail Mode

12. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Telephone Mode 2009 ACS Approximate workload: 100,000 cases per month • About 5 weeks after the initial mail out the workload is identified for telephone follow-up which last about four weeks • Commercial vendors provide telephone numbers and 3 call centers conduct interviews using computer-assisted methods

13. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Sampling for Personal Visit • Increase Sampling Efficiency • Eligible Universe • All addresses that do not respond by mail or Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) • All non-mailable addresses • Sampling Rates • Every tract assigned to a sampling stratum • Four rates: 1-in-2, 1-in-3, 2-in-5, 2-in-3 (non-mailable only) • Rates based on historical mail/CATI response patterns

14. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Personal Visit Mode 2009 ACS Approximate workload: 46,000 cases per month • Interviewing is managed out of 12 Census Bureau Regional Offices • Regional offices recruit bilingual staff to ensure data collection from non-English speaking households • Interviewers use laptops with English and Spanish translations

15. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Monthly Data Integration Providers Inputs Activities Outputs Recipients Mail Responses for DCF Verify/Validate Daily Data Files Failed Edit Follow-Up Case Status Updates Case Management and Control Integrate Daily Inputs to into the Monthly Data Capture File (DCF) Daily DCF Telephone Center (NRFU, CATI) Create Coding Workloads Response Data Maintain Single Year Data Personal Interview Telephone Center (TQA)

16. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Annual Processing 1-Year Processing - most recent data collection year: 3-Year and 5-Year Processing - previous years: Aggregation of Years Cross-walking codes (geography, occupation,..) inflation factors Re-weighting All years are combined to represent the period Review Tabulation Dissemination • Editing • Cleaning for consistency, missing data • Weighting • Person and housing unit weight assigned to records • Review • Tabulation • Dissemination Disclosure avoidance techniques are introduced in all phases of editing, weighting, review, tabulation, and dissemination.

17. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Data Products Data and Narrative Profiles Comparison Profiles Selected Population Profiles Ranking Tables Subject Tables Detailed Tables Geographic Comparison Tables Thematic Maps Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File

18. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Selected Types of Areas 1-Year estimates are available for areas with populations of 65,000 or more. 3-Year estimates are available for areas with populations of 20,000 or more.

19. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Selected facts about the 2005-2009 ACS 5-Year Data Products • Over 11 billion estimates • Nearly 700,000 geographic areas • Includes estimates for ALL counties, places, school districts, Census tracts, and block groups • Roughly 100 times the size of the 2009 ACS 1-year data release

20. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Outline • ACS Background • Methodology Elements • Challenges for Operations • Volume of work • Managing Change • Challenges for Data Users • Summary and Resources

21. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Lifecycle Overview2010 Data Collection

22. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Concurrent Cycles

23. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Volume and Complexity of the Data Product Set • Multi-year products require multiyear processing • 22 billion statistics (1/2 are MOE’s) • Added burden of new products • Increasing burden of custom tabulations • Managing multiple dissemination media – maintaining consistency

24. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Managing Change • New content • Adding, modifying, deleting questions • New methodologies • Sample reallocation, introducing subcounty population controls • New technologies • Keying responses from paper -> keying responses from images

25. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources New Content Implementation CATI = Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview CAPI = Computer-Assisted Personal Interview

26. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources New Method Implementation

27. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Research to Production • Testing new content • Parental place of birth • Internet access • Testing new methods • Internet response option • Group quarters weighting • Small area estimation techniques

28. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Outline • ACS Background • Methodology Elements • Challenges for Operations • Challenges for Data Users • Which product do I use? • What does “margin or error” mean? • Where are my 2010 Census data? • Summary and Resources

29. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Which product do I choose? • 1-Year, 3-Year, or 5-Year? • Detail Table, Profile, Geographic Comparison Table, etcetera? • How often should I get updates? • Do I need yearly updates of 5-year data for decision-making? • Why can’t I find ..? You have 11 billion estimates, but not the one I want.

30. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources What does the “margin of error” mean for me? • Limited public understanding of survey data – unaware of the idea of estimates having variance • Thought Census 2000 long-form had no variance (came from “the census”) • Public mistrust of statistics with MOE – they want “the facts” • “So what do I do with the MOE?”

31. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Understanding how to use the data…appropriately • Abundance of resources, majority of users (who are casual users) don’t want to read… • Compass Handbooks tailored by audience • Online guides • Table look-up tools • Subject-specific guidance • Users like neat-and-tidy • Census 2000 sample data totals equaled Census 2000 count data for a variety of geographic areas • ACS 5-Year estimates do not equal 2010 Census counts or any published population estimates Key stakeholders give positive feedback on these resources.

32. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Outline • ACS Background • Methodology Elements • Challenges for Operations • Challenges for Data Users • Summary and Resources • Upcoming work • Preliminary assessments

33. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Looking Ahead: Program Review To develop and implement a new strategic vision for the ACS that improves overall operations • Strategic Review • Business Process • Systems Engineering • Product Line Review • Methodology Improvements • Program Management Processes • Communication and Stakeholder Analysis • Research and Evaluation

34. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Preview “The United States Experience: Streamlining the Decennial Census and Meeting Data User Needs” Deborah Griffin, JSM, August 2011 Motivation for switching to ACS: • Call for more timely data • Need to simplify the basic census headcount and control costs • Challenge of collecting high quality detailed data in a census setting

35. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources ACS Timeliness - minimal lag between collection and release C = Data Collection Period P = Processing Period R = Data Release Period

36. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources ACS Timeliness – availability of refreshed information – 2010 to 2022 C = Collection Year R = Data Release Year

37. ACS Background Methodology Elements Challenges for Operations Challenges for Data Users Summary and Resources Summary • The ACS has met its initial goals: • Has provided new estimates yearly for geographic areas with populations of 65,000 or more (timely) • Contributed to the success of the 2010 Census (efficient) • Provided its first set of 5-year estimates for geographic areas of all sizes, effectively replacing the long form (small area data) • The ACS is undergoing a complete program review in order to refocus and retool for the next set of challenges

38. Thank you Sharon M. SternAmerican Community Survey Office U.S. Census Bureau Office: 301-763-5638E-mail: sharon.m.stern@census.gov ACS Main Page: www.census.gov/acs Methodology: …/www/methodology/methodology_main/ Guidance for Users: …/www/guidance_for_data_users/guidance_main/