1 / 44

Learning Curve Analysis

Learning Curve Analysis. Supplement G. 0.30 – 0.25 – 0.20 – 0.15 – 0.10 – 0.05 – 0 –. Learning curve. Process time per unit (hr). | | | | | | 50 100 150 200 250 300. Cumulative units produced. Learning Curves. 0.30 – 0.25 – 0.20 – 0.15 – 0.10 – 0.05 – 0 –.

diep
Download Presentation

Learning Curve Analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Learning CurveAnalysis Supplement G

  2. 0.30 – 0.25 – 0.20 – 0.15 – 0.10 – 0.05 – 0 – Learning curve Process time per unit (hr) | | | | | | 50 100 150 200 250 300 Cumulative units produced Learning Curves

  3. 0.30 – 0.25 – 0.20 – 0.15 – 0.10 – 0.05 – 0 – Process time per unit (hr) Learning curve Learning period | | | | | | 50 100 150 200 250 300 Cumulative units produced Learning Curves Showing the learning period

  4. Learning Curves 0.30 – 0.25 – 0.20 – 0.15 – 0.10 – 0.05 – 0 – Showing the learning period and the time when standards are calculated Learning curve Process time per unit (hr) Learning period Standard time | | | | | | 50 100 150 200 250 300 Cumulative units produced

  5. Developing Learning Curves • In developing learning curves we make the following assumptions: • The direct labor required to produce the n + 1st unit will always be less than the direct time of labor required for the nth unit. • Direct labor requirements will decrease at a declining rate as cumulative production increases. • The reduction in time will follow an exponential curve. kn = k1nb where k1 = direct labor hours for the 1st unit n = cumulative number of units produced b = log r / log 2 r = learning rate

  6. 80% Conversion Factors for the Cumulative Average Number of Direct Labor Hours per Unit

  7. 90% Conversion Factors for the Cumulative Average Number of Direct Labor Hours per Unit

  8. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Manufacturer of diesel locomotives: Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1Developing the 80% Learning Curve

  9. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1Estimating Direct Labor Requirements

  10. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) Labor hours required for 40th unit k40 = 50,000(40)(log 0.8)/(log 2) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using the formula

  11. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) k40 = 50,000(40)-0.322 | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using the formula

  12. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) k40 = 50,000(0.30488) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using the formula

  13. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) k40 = 15,244 hours | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using the formula

  14. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) k40 = 15,244 hours | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using the formula

  15. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) k40 = 15,244 hours | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using the formula

  16. 80% Learning Rate (n = cumulative production) 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% n 1 1.00000 2 0.90000 3 0.83403 . . . . . . 38 0.43634 39 0.43304 40 0.42984 64 0.37382 128 0.30269 Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) Cumulative average labor hours = | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using Conversion Factors

  17. 80% Learning Rate (n = cumulative production) 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% n 1 1.00000 2 0.90000 3 0.83403 . . . . . . 38 0.43634 39 0.43304 40 0.42984 64 0.37382 128 0.30269 Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) Cumulative average labor hours = 50,000(0.42984) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using Conversion Factors

  18. 80% Learning Rate (n = cumulative production) 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% n 1 1.00000 2 0.90000 3 0.83403 . . . . . . 38 0.43634 39 0.43304 40 0.42984 64 0.37382 128 0.30269 Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) Cumulative average labor hours = 21,492 hours | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using Conversion Factors

  19. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using Unit-doublings

  20. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1 using Unit-doublings

  21. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) Second unit = 50,000(80%) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using Unit-doublings

  22. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) Second unit = 40,000 hours | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using Unit-doublings

  23. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) Fourth unit = 40,000(80%) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using Unit-doublings

  24. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Labor hours required for first unit = 50,000 Learning rate = 80% Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) Fourth unit = 32,000 hours | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced Example G.1using Unit-doublings

  25. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced The 80% Learning Curve forExample G.1

  26. 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – Direct labor hours per locomotive (thousands) | | | | | | | 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Cumulative units produced The 80% Learning Curve forExample G.1

  27. Application G.1Estimating Direct Labor Requirements The 1st unit of a new product is expected to take 1,000 hours. The learning rate is 80%, how much time should the 50th unit take?

  28. Units per Cumulative Month Month Units 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  29. 90% Learning Rate (n = cumulative production) Units per Cumulative Month Month Units n 1 1.00000 2 0.95000 3 0.91540 4 0.88905 5 0.86784 . . . . . . 30 0.69090 64 0.62043 128 0.56069 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  30. 90% Learning Rate (n = cumulative production) Units per Cumulative Month Month Units n 1 1.00000 2 0.95000 3 0.91540 4 0.88905 5 0.86784 . . . . . . 30 0.69090 64 0.62043 128 0.56069 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  31. 90% Learning Rate (n = cumulative production) Units per Cumulative Month Month Units n 1 1.00000 2 0.95000 3 0.91540 4 0.88905 5 0.86784 . . . . . . 30 0.69090 64 0.62043 128 0.56069 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 28,500(2) = 57,000 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  32. 90% Learning Rate (n = cumulative production) Units per Cumulative Month Month Units n 1 1.00000 2 0.95000 3 0.91540 4 0.88905 5 0.86784 . . . . . . 30 0.69090 64 0.62043 128 0.56069 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 28,500(2) = 57,000 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 26,035(5) = 130,175 3 30,000(0.79945) = 23,983 23,983(10) = 239,830 4 30,000(0.74080) = 22,224 22,224(18) = 400,032 5 30,000(0.69090) = 20,727 20,727(30) = 621,810 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  33. Units per Cumulative Month Month Units 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 3 30,000(0.79945) = 23,983 4 30,000(0.74080) = 22,224 5 30,000(0.69090) = 20,727 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  34. Units per Cumulative Month Month Units 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 28,500(2) = 57,000 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 3 30,000(0.79945) = 23,983 4 30,000(0.74080) = 22,224 5 30,000(0.69090) = 20,727 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  35. Units per Cumulative Month Month Units 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 28,500(2) = 57,000 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 26,035(5) = 130,175 3 30,000(0.79945) = 23,983 4 30,000(0.74080) = 22,224 5 30,000(0.69090) = 20,727 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  36. Units per Cumulative Month Month Units 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 28,500(2) = 57,000 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 26,035(5) = 130,175 3 30,000(0.79945) = 23,983 23,983(10) = 239,830 4 30,000(0.74080) = 22,224 22,224(18) = 400,032 5 30,000(0.69090) = 20,727 20,727(30) = 621,810 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  37. Month 1: Units per Cumulative Month Month Units 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 28,500(2) = 57,000 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 26,035(5) = 130,175 3 30,000(0.79945) = 23,983 23,983(10) = 239,830 4 30,000(0.74080) = 22,224 22,224(18) = 400,032 5 30,000(0.69090) = 20,727 20,727(30) = 621,810 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  38. Month 1: 57,000 – 0 = 57,000 hours Units per Cumulative Month Month Units 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 28,500(2) = 57,000 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 26,035(5) = 130,175 3 30,000(0.79945) = 23,983 23,983(10) = 239,830 4 30,000(0.74080) = 22,224 22,224(18) = 400,032 5 30,000(0.69090) = 20,727 20,727(30) = 621,810 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  39. Month 1: 57,000 – 0 = 57,000 hours Month 2: 130,175 – 57,000 = 73,175 hours Units per Cumulative Month Month Units 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 28,500(2) = 57,000 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 26,035(5) = 130,175 3 30,000(0.79945) = 23,983 23,983(10) = 239,830 4 30,000(0.74080) = 22,224 22,224(18) = 400,032 5 30,000(0.69090) = 20,727 20,727(30) = 621,810 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  40. Month 1: 57,000 – 0 = 57,000 hours Month 2: 130,175 – 57,000 = 73,175 hours Month 3: 239,830 – 130,175 = 109,655 hours Month 4: 400,032 – 239,830 = 160,202 hours Month 5: 621,810 – 400,032 = 221,778 hours Units per Cumulative Month Month Units 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 28,500(2) = 57,000 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 26,035(5) = 130,175 3 30,000(0.79945) = 23,983 23,983(10) = 239,830 4 30,000(0.74080) = 22,224 22,224(18) = 400,032 5 30,000(0.69090) = 20,727 20,727(30) = 621,810 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  41. Month 1: 57,000 – 0 = 57,000 /150 = 380 employees Month 2: 130,175 – 57,000 = 73,175 /150 = 488 employees Month 3: 239,830 – 130,175 = 109,655 /150 = 731 employees Month 4: 400,032 – 239,830 = 160,202 /150 = 1068 employees Month 5: 621,810 – 400,032 = 221,778 /150 = 1479 employees Units per Cumulative Month Month Units 1 2 2 2 3 5 3 5 10 4 8 18 5 12 30 Cumulative Cumulative Average Time Total Hours Month per Unit for All Units 1 30,000(0.95000) = 28,500 28,500(2) = 57,000 2 30,000(0.86784) = 26,035 26,035(5) = 130,175 3 30,000(0.79945) = 23,983 23,983(10) = 239,830 4 30,000(0.74080) = 22,224 22,224(18) = 400,032 5 30,000(0.69090) = 20,727 20,727(30) = 621,810 Example G.2Estimating Labor Requirements

  42. Application G.2Estimating Cumulative Labor Hours An example of using the learning model to test budget constraints: A company has a contract to make a product for the first time. The total budget for the 38-unit job is 15,000 hours. The first unit took 1000 hours, and the rate of learning is expected to be 80 percent. Do you think the 38-unit job can be completed within the 15,000-hour budget? How many additional hours would you need for a second job of an 26 additional units?

  43. Application G.2First 38-unit Job

  44. Application G.2Second additional 26-unit Job

More Related