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Michael Griswold Biostats Retreat 2003

Michael Griswold Biostats Retreat 2003. Clear-Cut Logging?. A Discussion on Model Evaluation for Complex Distributions. Clear-Cut Logging. Complex Distributions. SEERMED DATA. End of Life Colorectal Cancer Costs. SEERMED DATA. Truncated Below $50,000. SEERMED DATA.

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Michael Griswold Biostats Retreat 2003

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  1. Michael Griswold Biostats Retreat 2003 Clear-Cut Logging? A Discussion on Model Evaluation for Complex Distributions

  2. Clear-Cut Logging

  3. Complex Distributions

  4. SEERMED DATA End of Life Colorectal Cancer Costs

  5. SEERMED DATA Truncated Below $50,000

  6. SEERMED DATA Truncated Above $50,000

  7. Covariate Sets • Basic Set  • The Basic Covariates of Interest  • Full Set  • Basic Set + interactions, spline-terms, etc… • Significance Set  • .05 Significant Covariates from the Full Model • Modified Significance Set • Significance Set without collinear variables • Gender & Ethnicity, adjusted for Age & Geography • Gender & Ethnicity groups

  8. Regression Models • LogNormal • LogNormal with Smearing • Logistic: P($>0) • Two-Stage LogNormal • Two-Stage LogNormal with Smearing • Gamma: (GLM; log-link) • Two-Stage Gamma • Cox PHM • Normal • Two-Stage Normal

  9. Evaluation Design Validation Sample (10%) Training Sample: (90%)

  10. Training Cross-Validation samples (10% of 90% = 9%) Evaluation Design Validation Sample (10%) Training Sample: (81%)

  11. Evaluation Statistics • BIAS(Model,Cov) = • MAE(Model,Cov) = • RMSE(Model,Cov) = • LS-Rule(Model,Cov) =

  12. ??? Need estimate of the baseline Density function PHM Density Estimate  Cox PHM Survival Function:   S(c) =  S0(c)( )  Cox PHM Density Function: f(c)  =  -S(c) = -e(X) S0(c)(1-) S0(c) =  e(X) S0(c)(1-) f0(c)  Estimate: f(c) =  e(X) S0(c)(1-) f0(c)

  13. f0(c) = s( S0(c) ) PHM Baseline Survival B-Splines: 1) Local support & computation 2) Monotonic Coefficients  Monotonic Smooth 3) Derivative of a B-Spline of degree 'p'  = B-Spline of degree ('p'-1)  S0(c) *Great Resource: C.K. Shene’s Webpage Cost (c)

  14. Results: distbs Colorectal Cancer Costs $$ $$ $$

  15. Validation Results

  16. Validation Results

  17. Validation Results

  18. Complex Longitudinal Data Cost 1 Cost 2

  19. Bivariate Mixtures Sample Sizes Cost 2 Cost 1

  20. My Statistician said “Get More Data”

  21. Q-Q plots

  22. SQUARE: QQ-Plot

  23. E(Cwf) – E(Cbf) s(p) SQUARE: log -Plot s(p) = smooth function of percentile

  24. MSQUARE: QQ-Plots

  25. S1(p) S2(p) S3(p) S4(p) S5(p) S6(p) MSQUARE: log(QR)-Plots

  26. Analogy SQUARE2-groupst-test IMSQUAREk-groupsANOVA URSQUARE2ContinuousReg.

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