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Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Module #1

This training module details the potential impacts of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, including building damage, infrastructure disruptions, and health care challenges. Prepare for aftershocks and take proactive measures.

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Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Module #1

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  1. THURSTON COUNTY RECOVERY TRAINING MODULE #1 – CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE

  2. EARTHQUAKE OCCURANCE Nisqually Type – 3 to 4 Cascadia Type – 1 Estimated 200 to 500 yrs. Last – Jan. 26, 1700 Crustal Type - ?

  3. Olympia Eugene

  4. EXERCISE FACTS AND ASSUMPTIONS • Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Magnitude 9.0 • Epicenter – 95 miles west of Eugene Oregon • Duration – 5 minutes 30 seconds • Monday January 28, 2019 at 9:10 AM • Average Temperature – Day 45.9 F Night 36.9 F • PPT Average – 0.32”/ 12 hours • Wind Speed – 6.3 mph • Civil Twilight 10:49 hours • Soil Conditions – Saturated • Tide at Budd Inlet – 16.30 feet • Tsunamis – 2 to 4 feet Bathtub Effect 4 feet from earthquake • Aftershocks – Could received 12 to 30 from magnitude 4.0 to 7.2 in first 30 days.

  5. Probability of Extensive Damage – Large diagonal cracks across shear-wall panels or large cracks at plywood joints; permanent lateral movement of floors and roofs; cracks in foundation; splitting od wood sill plates; slippage od structure over foundation

  6. Expected Building Damage by Use Building Use Total None/Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Single Family 77,741 75,409 2,56546 8 Other Residential 10,688 5,0234,061 1,496 136 Commercial 4,799 2,591 1,535 624 96 Agriculture 900 648 171 72 9 Government 347 196101 457 Industrial 219 116 72 337 Religion 185 11846 19 4 Education 116 65 2713 10 TOTAL 95,094 84,166 8,578 2,348 27711,203 Moderate Extensive Complete

  7. ROADS and RAILS Thurston County - 684 lane miles; 22 bridges/box culverts; 3 miles of rail; 3 rail bridges; 1 airport; 4 port facilities Regionally – 16,000 lane miles; 7,000 bridges 6,000 miles of rails;100 rail bridges; 100 airports; 700 port facilities.

  8. ELECTRICAL FACILITIES: 6 to 9 months for 90% Restoration • 3 Substations High Damage and 17 Substation have Medium Damage • Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has approx. 200 transmission towers on slopes greater than 40%. 5 BPA transmission towers have collapsed. • 35% of powerlines are down, broken, or pulled from transformers and structures.

  9. PIPELINES: Natural Gas – 31 breaks/leaks in Northwest Pipeline; Yelm Compressor down 54 breaks and 206 leaks in PSE distribution lines Refined Fuels – 130 breaks/leaks on Olympia Pipeline Only 5% of fuel stations have generator power 7% of underground fuel tanks have leaks

  10. UTILITIES WATER: 160,000 individuals without water Centralia City Light power canal breached Dam failures – Lucinda Lake, Tempo Lake, Summit Lake & Clear Lake Water Systems – (Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater & Yelm) 1,050 leaks & 262 breaks Class A – 6 failed; Class B – 14 failed; Private wells - 1,300 to 1,820 failed SEWER: LOTT & Yelm are down; Estimated 5,400 septic's failed Estimated between LOTT and Yelm are 752 leaks and 188 breaks 5,400 private septic's have leaks or failed

  11. Bathtub Effect – 2 to 4 feet Time 0 Cascadia Earthquake – 4 feet about 5 hours Tsunamis LANDSLIDES 118 miles of Marine Coastal Shoreline 140 lakes > 5 acres 88,647 acres (18.88%) of slopes > 40% REMINDER: SEQUENCE - AFTERSHOCKS! Japan – March 11, 2011 M 9.0 Total to date; 5,332 M 5.5 to 7.2 to date 402

  12. Sheltering 1,000 households (4,500 individuals) Daily In 20,000 Daily Out 32,000 ADT on I-5 & HWY 101 104,000 (4,000) Estimate 13,200 from coast in 3 days ~ 40,000?

  13. It”s Not Just Us!

  14. HEALTHCARE Level 1 – Medical attention but no hospitalization approx. 1,500 Level 2 – Hospitalization but not life-threatening approx. 450 Level 3 – Hospitalization can become life-threatening approx. 73 Level 4 – Fatality approx. 137 Medical Facilities/Clinics – Providence St. Peter Hospital - < 40% of capacity Capital Medical Center - ~ 85% of capacity Clinics - ~ 65% of capacity Nursing Homes ~ 70% of capacity Assisted Living Facilities ~ 65% of capacity Adult Family Homes~ 75% of capacity ISSUES:

  15. SCHOOLS Approximately 116 Educational Structures in Thurston County No schools will be 100% Fully Functional ~ 35 Schools may experience Moderate Damage 10 to 12 Schools may experience Extensive to Complete Collapse Modeled that Potentially 50% of Fatalities will come from Schools ISSUES:

  16. HOUSING Single Family – 73,950 27,182 Slight 2,450 Mod. 46 Ex. 8 Comp. .07% Other Res. – 10,167 2,757 Slight 3,844 Mod. 1,444 Ex. 145 Comp. 16% Sheltering – 1 to 7 days potential 40,000 No Power/Water/Sewer Thurston County Residences 1,000 Households (4,500) Commuters ~ 20,000 I-5/ HWY 101 ~ 4,000 Others ~ 13,200 ISSUES:

  17. JOBS and ECONOMY Commercial – 4,799 671 Exten. or Complete; 1,444 Moderate 2,115 44% Government – 347 49 Exten. or Complete; 97 Moderate 146 42% Industrial – 219 38 Exten. or Complete; 69 Moderate 107 49% Agriculture – 900 81 Exten. or Complete; 171 Moderate 252 28% ISSUES:

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