Restart, Ponder, Be Puzzled

1. Charting a New Approachto Security Assessmentin the AmericasbyIvelaw L. GriffithFlorida International UniversityGriffiti@fiu.edu~~~~~Strategic OpportunitiesMiami~March 9-11, 2005

2. Restart, Ponder, Be Puzzled “We need to start afresh, to relax in our gardens, emulate [Isaac] Newton and ponder the scene around us, allowing ourselves to be puzzled by those recurring patterns that seem self-evident but that somehow have never been adequately explained.” ~~ James Rosenau, The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy (1980)

3. Framework Design • Discrete Multidimensional Security Framework • Three Building Blocks (BB) • BB I: Elements of Structure • BB II: Core Concepts • BB III: Framework Elements • The Framework

4. BB I—Structure • Anarchy & Interdependence • Small Size • Vulnerability • Weakness & Subordination • Combined effects of SS, V, W & S undermine ability of Caribbean states to exercise agency vis-à-vis rest of world and often the region

5. BB II—Core Concepts • Many concepts, differing meanings • Definitional baselines needed • “Security” • “Threats”

6. “Security” • “Protection and preservation of a people’s freedom from external military attack and coercion, from internal subversion, and from the erosion of cherished political, economic, and social values.” – Ivelaw L. Griffith (1993) • Values include • Democratic choice and political stability in the political area • Sustainable development and free enterprise in the economic domain • Social equality and respect for human rights in the social arena

7. “Threat” “An action or sequence of events that (i) threatens drastically and over a relatively brief span of time to degrade the quality of life for the inhabitants of a state, or (ii) threatens significantly to narrow the range of policy choices available to the government of a state or to private non-governmental entities (persons, groups, corporations) within the state.” – Richard H. Ullman, “Redefining Security” in International Security (1983)

8. BB III—Elements • Categories & Dimensions • Threat Type, Intensity, & Arena • Threat Arena, Threats, and Response Instruments • Instruments, Actors, and Security Engagement Zones

9. Figure 1 - Categories & Dimensions Military Traditional Issues Political Economic Categories Dimensions Military Non-Traditional Issues Political Economic Environmental

10. Figure 2 - Threat Type, Intensity, and Arena Threat Type Threat Intensity Threat Arena High Core Internal Medium Peripheral External Low

11. Figure 3 - Threat Arenas, Threats, and Response Instruments Poverty E, P Political Instability P, E Drugs M, P, LE, E Internal Crime M, LE, P HIV/AIDS P,E Terrorism M, P, LE External Border & Territorial Disputes M, D, P Hurricanes EM, M, E KEY: E = Economic LE = Law Enforcement P = Political D = Diplomatic M = Military EM = Emergency Management

12. Figure 4 Instruments, Actors, and Security Engagement Zones Instruments Actors Security Engagement Zones International Bilateral National: Diplomatic National X Y • Individuals Economic • NGOs • Corporations Multilateral Emergency Management Sub-region Law Enforcement International: Region • States Hemisphere Military • IGOs International System • INGOs Political • MNCs

13. Figure 5- Discrete Multidimensional Security Framework

14. Purpose & Application • To provide conceptual architecture for explanation and interpretation of security structures, patterns, and dynamics, especially in relation to threats, actors, and responses • Heuristic device—not intended to explain each and every component of security scenario • (An heuristic device is a method or technique intended to help discover something or explain a phenomenon; something that serves as guide in experiment or inquiry. Greek in origin; comes from heuriskein, to find; same root as eureka.) • Could be applied empirically to different units of analysis: single state, sub-region, region.

15. Caribbean and Beyond • Framework for security analysis of the Caribbean, but not only for the Caribbean • Intended to be dynamic, not static • Application elsewhere will reveal different configurations of threats, response instruments, actors, etc. • Same region, different time will reveal different configuration of threats, salience of threats, responses, actors, etc.

16. Within Region ≠ of Region • Challenges within a region not always same as challenges of a region • Regional security is relational • Issue of salience: function of threat type & intensity & influenced by 3 factors • Number of states affected • Definition of situation by relevant elites • Amount of resources invested by state (& non state) actors

17. Ask, Revise, Collect “The scholar must have the flexibility of mind to overturn old ways of looking at the world, to ask new questions, to revise designs appropriately, and then to collect data of a different type than originally intended.” ~~ Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry (1994)

18. Further Information • This framework is outlined in • Ivelaw L. Griffith, “Understanding Caribbean Security: Back to Basics and Building Blocks," Social and Economic Studies, Vol. 53, No. (March) 2004, 1-33. • This framework is outlined & applied in • Chapter 1 of Ivelaw Lloyd Griffith, editor, Caribbean Security in the Age of Terror: Challenge and Change. Kingston, Jamaica: Ian Randle Publishers, 2004.