Systematic Observation Requirements for Space-based Products for Climate

1. Systematic Observation Requirements for Space-based Products for Climate Supplemental details to the satellite-based component of the “Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC” Stephan Bojinski, GCOS Secretariat WOAP-II, JRC Ispra, Italy

2. Outline • Road towards “Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-based Products for Climate” • Requirements: Examples • Outlook / Conclusion

3. GCOS Implementation Plan • Requirements in the ‘Second Adequacy Report’; • Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) • Integrated global analysis products • Existing global, regional and national plans; • Indicators for measuring its implementation; • Implementation priorities, agents and resource requirements; • 131 Actions; estimated USD 631M additional annually recurring cost; • Major satellite component.

4. Variables Largely Dependent Upon Satellites (2AR) • Atmospheric • Surface – Precipitation, Surface Wind speed and direction over oceans, • Upper Air – Earth radiation budget(including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (inc. MSU radiances), Water vapour, Cloud properties • Composition –Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Aerosol properties. • Oceanic • Surface – Sea-surface temperature, (Sea-surface salinity), Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Ocean colour • Sub Surface – Altimetry for analysis/reanalysis • Terrestrial • (Ground water), (Lake levels), Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Albedo, Land cover, Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index , (Biomass), Fire disturbance, (soil moisture)

5. Road towards the ‘Satellite Supplement’ to the GCOS IP • Space agencies were requested by UNFCCC to respond to requirements in the GCOS IP by November 2006 • Space agencies asked GCOS, through CEOS, to provide more details for these requirements • January 2006 workshop with 25 participants, using • Requirements in Ohring et al. (2005) • Requirements in WMO/CEOS database • Hand-over of version 1.0 to CEOS (3 March) • 2 months open review on the web • Continuing interaction with CEOS • Publication mid-September

6. Requirements inthe ‘Satellite supplement’ to the GCOS IP (near-final v2.0) • 9 Cross-cutting needs (related to, e.g., GCOS climate monitoring principles, inter-calibration, unique datasets, independent scientific groups, data access) • 35 ECV-based “Products”, based on “Fundamental Climate Data Records - FCDRs” • Needs for reanalysis (e.g., atmosphere-ocean coupling) • Detailed specifications, often in conjunction with in-situ data for cal/val • Recommended immediate actions and opportunities

7. Nomenclature • Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) ”a long-term data record, involving a series of instruments, with potentially changing measurement approaches, but with overlaps and calibrations sufficient to allow the generation of homogeneous products providing a measure of the intended variable that is accurate and stable enough for climate monitoring. FCDRs include the ancillary data used to calibrate them.” • Products (aka TCDRs) ”denotes geophysical variables derived from FCDRs, often generated by blending satellite observations and in-situ data, and using physical model frameworks.”

8. Remarks on FCDRs and Products • FCDR specifications kept generic (e.g., “appropriate radiances in VIS/NIR”) based on current expertise • Clear links to GCOS IP • Accuracy – stability – resolution requirements given as indicators; sampling issues not addressed • Continuing involvement of expert groups required to • Improve methodology for product generation and analysis • Update of specifications/requirements • Obtain reliable estimates of climate variability and trends: Independent scientific groups, independent FCDRs

9. Where do priority needs stop? • Some in the science community have ambitions that “all” research missions and/or datasets thereof be sustained (“operational”) • GCOS focus is on a priority sustained component that deals withpractical monitoring on a global scale, and that should be feasible within a decade. • This Satellite Report recognises, but does not detail, research needs and supplemental datasets and products that aid interpretation/ validation • Key recommdation 6 in the Executive Summary reads: “Sustain active research satellite programmes that address challenging measurement needs and that allow capabilities to advance and be more cost effective.”

10. Example 1 Aerosol Product: Aerosol optical depth, and other aerosol properties • Benefits: Reduce uncertainty in climate forcing • Spatial and temporal resolution (total column AOD): 1 km horizontal, 1-day cycle, RMS accuracy 0.01, decadal stability 0.005 • Appropriate FCDR at selected VIS/NIR/SWIR wavelengths, through: • Optimal configuration of LEO/GEO satellites • Continuity by AVHRR-3, VIIRS, MTG • Reprocessing of AVHRR since 1981; of full GOES dataset Supplemented by: • Research with active instruments • Cal/val needs: NDACC, WMO GAW, NASA AERONET • Immediate actions: Reprocessing of historical datasets • Other applications of product: Air quality, NWP, cloud chemistry

11. Example 2 Land Cover Change Product: High-resolution maps of land cover type, for the detection of land cover change • Benefits: Quantify areal changes land cover; provide link between global land cover maps and in-situ observations; support to national GHG inventory reporting to the UNFCCC • Spatial and temporal resolution: 10-30m horizontal, 5-year cycle, 20% maximum error of omission and commission (accuracy and stability) • Appropriate FCDR of high-resolution, multispectral VIS/NIR imagery, e.g., Landsat ETM type • Adequacy: scattered regional 30-m resolution maps exist, but no institution provides global maps on a regular basis • Immediate actions: Reprocessing of historical datasets; build on existing rudimentary institutional arrangements; research to develop feasible operational solutions • Other applications of product: Support change detection / sustainable development in e.g., agriculture, forestry

12. Outlook / Conclusions GCOS Satellite Supplement Report used in: • Updated UNFCCC Guidelines on Systematic Observation (to be adopted in November 2006) • Space Agencies’ (CEOS) Response to the GCOS IP; long-term planning / “Constellation” concept? • Evolution of the WMO Global Observing System and the WMO Space Programme Meeting 4-8 September (ET-SAT/SUP joint session) • US National Research Council Decadal Survey Report “Earth Science and Applications from Space” (communication with Rick Anthes)

13. Thank you for your attention.

14. GCOS Mission • To ensure that the data required to meet the needs of users for climate information are obtained and made available for: • Climate system monitoring, climate change detection and attribution; • Research, modelling and prediction of the climate system; • Assessing impacts, vulnerability & adaptation; • Application to sustainable economic development. • Global, long-term, high-quality, sustainable, reliable • 3 science panels (Atmosphere, Oceans, Terrestrial), Steering Committee, Secretariat • Sponsored by WMO, UNEP, UNESCO, ICSU • National GCOS coordinators and focal points, National support

15. GCOS Observational Strategy • Achieving an optimal balance of satellite and in-situ data • Ensuring data are stable enough to allow reliable detection of climate change – • 20 GCOS climate monitoring principles (10 basic + 10 especially for space-based observations) • Making full use of all available data to achieve a cost-effective global observing system for climate • Network concept: • Comprehensive networks of all relevant observations • Global Baseline networks • Reference networks • Research networks

16. Selected GCOS activities in the past 3 years • GCOS Adequacy Report (2003): identified gaps and deficiencies • GCOS Implementation Plan (2004): the roadmap for the global climate observing system in the next 5-10 years • Both reports developed in response to and endorsed by the UNFCCC • Broad participation and ownership by the climate community, including WCRP, WCP • GCOS seen as the climate component of the GEOSS • Regional workshops • Regional implementation (e.g.,G8 follow-up, in conjunction with donors and development agencies in Africa)

17. Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) • Atmospheric (16) • Surface – Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour • Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties • Composition –Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Aerosol properties. • Oceanic (15) • Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure • Sub-surface:Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers, Phytoplankton • Terrestrial (13) • River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), [Biomass], Fire disturbance, [soil moisture]