How Middle Class are the ‘ Scooter Class’ in Indonesia ?

1. How Middle Class are the ‘Scooter Class’ in Indonesia? A Household Asset Approach to Social Stratification Lukas Schlogl & Andy Sumner King’s College London

2. Indonesia’s development and emerging middle class • An asset-based approach • Evolution and characteristics of the Indonesian ‘scooter classes’ • Implications • Conclusions

3. 1. Indonesia’s recent development • Rapid economic development & poverty  • Constant share of relative middle

4. The Literature on Indonesia’s Middle VULNERABILITY vs … • ADB (2010) finds, “as rapid economic growth has reduced poverty across Asia, the middle class has grown rapidly in size and spending power” resulting in “hugely expanded markets for consumer goods… but… much of the middle class remains extremely vulnerable to falling back into poverty” • Ansori (2009): “dependence on the state” as characteristic … ASSERTIVENESS • Van Klinken et al. (2014): “Historically this politically active group has been created by the state – they are teachers, government clerks, police officers and their private business partners. In recent times the proportion coming from the private sector has grown” Recurrent theme: importance of relationshipwith the state Paradox: pro-democracy/accountability vs flawed patronage, consumerism, etc.

5. Measuring the Middle Class “Politicians court the middle class. Pundits reference it. Sociologists study it. Most people think they belong to it. But we don’t really know what it is.” (Wheary, 2005)

6. 2. A new analytical framework • Asset-based approach • Savage (1995): “disembodied and abstract social structures” • Savage (2013): “appeal of developing a new, multi-dimensional way of registering social class differentiation” • Household assets can be “a better indicator of permanent income than current consumption/income” (Birdsall 2010) – but: not sensitive to short-term changes • Building block towards a multidimensional conception of the middle Based on 5 waves of Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 1994 – 2012, nationallyrepresentativehouseholdsurveys

7. Scooter vs. Car • Dadush & Ali (2012): 10.8 mil passenger cars x 4.6 avg. household size = 49.7 mil. “middle class”? • We look at mobility classes based on transportation assets: • Car class: own at least one car (often own scooter as well) • Scooter class: They own a scooter only • Walking poor: They own neither a scooter nor a car “When we speak of the middle class, what we are really getting at is a way of life” (Wheary, 2005)

8. 3. Share of Mobility Assets (DHS) & Income Poverty Thresholds (Povcal)

9. Highest Educational Attainment (1994-2012 averages)

10. Residence (1994-2012 averages)

11. Main Wall Material (2012)

12. Expansion of the ‘Scooter Classes’

13. Expansion of the ‘Scooter Classes’

14. Under-5 Child Mortality Rates across Classes

15. 4. ImplicationsforMeasurement • VEHICLES an interesting, easy to observe indicator for capturing changing lifestyles: Expensive enough to be not universally available (unlike TV, mobile phones, etc.) but inexpensive enough to show changing consumption patterns over short time periods (unlike housing, education, health, etc.) • But: context-sensitive (density of settlements, state of the road network, availability of public transport, culture etc.) • Further reliable assets needed to build fuller, multidimensional picture • How do we make the measurement of the middle future-proof without reverting to abstract strata?

16. IstheRising‘Scooter Class‘ a Middle Class? • Traditional middle class in Western sense more likely similar to small group of urban, car-owning Indonesian households(who often have tertiary education) Dadushand Ali (2012) take car ownership data to consider a global middle class. We think with reference to Indonesia, and other MICs this doesn’t capture the new, burgeoning group, rather the long established upper middle. • Scooter Class resembles what Birdsallet al. (2013, p. 2) refer to as the “strugglers” (in Latin American context): a vulnerable group of people that lives “well above the international poverty line, but below what we would call the secure middle class”. Child mortality similar to UMICs.

17. Potential Political Implications • Role of middle classes in political processes: • ADB: middle classes have better education, organization; they pressure governments for better services and accountability; Van Klinken et al.: middle classes are protectionist statists • Ansori: Middle classes make “maximal efforts in preserving their relationship to the state and maintaining the status quo” • Indonesia: Implications • Implies questions for public policy about fuel subsidies • Traditional social protection targeted towards the poor, MC has other benefits… • Expand social protection but do not allow bias/capture

18. 5. Conclusions • Emerging or asset-based “middle” a recent phenomenon, absolute measurement • Developments in mobility classes indicative of changing purchasing power/stratification but the burgeoning group likely similar to Birdsall et al.’s “strugglers” rather than Western middle class • Need for multidimensional asset class analysis – similar to MPI. But also: Looking below the household level • Political implications – relationship with state and governed; government capture

19. Thank you! @LukasSchlogllukas.schlogl@kcl.ac.uk @AndyPSumner King’s International Development Institute www.kcl.ac.uk