PACAPS Early Warning/Response Mandera Triangle response strategy for pastoral communities

1. PACAPS Early Warning/ResponseMandera Triangle response strategy for pastoral communities June 11th, 2009 UNICEF Nairobi

2. Relationships of RELPA Implementation Activities

3. Livelihoods Information & Response Support Key Objectives • Regional coordination, analysis & policy support • Improve capacity of ELMT partners to support timely and harmonised livelihoods-based cross-border relief interventions • Regional Early Warning & Early Response • Improved regional EW/ER analytical approaches • Enhanced regional coordination of information and response – to add value to existing national and local EW information bases

4. 1 the context Livelihoods Framework 3a food 3b cash income 2 The level of assets 3c expenditure/ consumption

5. Livelihoods Framework The population is ‘disaggregated’ according to a) where they live …. HEA defines a geographical area in which the economic opportunities available are broadly the same (a “livelihood zone”). b) and who they are… In each zone, we can say that all households with the same level of assets have the same access to the same opportunities and so meet their needs in similar ways. The population is divided into groups of households with roughly the same level of assets (economic classes or “wealth groups”). c) and their seasonal access to food, income and change in expenditure patterns.

7. Generic pastoral baseline calendar

8. The problem “response to crises is often too late ” Which results in: • Massive asset depletion • Livelihoods ever more fragile • Only response possible is life-saving, not livelihood protection

9. The ‘normal’ year Milk ends

10. The Oct/Nov rains fail…

11. The April/May rains fail….

12. What could we do to help? • Protect core breeding herds for recovery • Improve income from l’stock (condition/price) • Reduce grain prices • Alternative income or food

13. What could we do to help? Possible ‘projects’: • animal health • fodder supply (distribution, sale, production and marketing) • water support (trucking, water sources) • marketing (l’stock and/or grain) • support to migration and • free food distribution, CFW or FFW, etc.

14. When is ‘on time’? animal health: before pasture disappears, before rains? fodder supply: when condition affects price, when breeding animals in danger? l’stock marketing: when prices and/or demand are ‘excessively’ low

15. When is ‘on time’? Vet care Vet care Fodder marketing

16. When do decisions need to be taken ? Activities don’t start the day we decide to implement them. Decisions need to be taken by a date that allows start up of implementation on time. So, if it takes 8 weeks from decisions to implementation, then decisions need to be taken at least 8 weeks before the latest appropriate date to start implementation

17. Fodder distributionstart-up timeline Really ??

18. When is ‘on time’? 3 months Fodder Fodderdecision making

19. When is ‘on time’? 2 months Marketing decision making marketing

20. When is ‘on time’? Vet care Vet care decision making

21. Objectives of the response analysis • Identify geographical areas of concern • Identify vulnerable groups • Understand how the vulnerable groups’ livelihood is affected • Quantify the impact of the crisis/es • Identify appropriate response & realistic start-up timelines • Coordinate who is best placed to do what when in each sector – link to response coordination bodies • Discuss how these responses can compliment development programmes and contribute to long term strategies

22. Steps of the response analysis • Give an up-to-date situation report on the area of concern – verify with partners working on ground • Compare the current situation with trend data • Incorporate the impact of the current situation into the livelihood calendar • Identify who are most affected? • Quantify the impact of the combination of different ‘shocks’ on a household • Predict the impact on households’ access to basic needs based on the hypothesis • Working through the livelihood calendar – analyse which response would be appropriate when • Establish start-up timeline to incorporate into the response strategy • Ensure this is included in contingency plans (district, organisation) • Link this to response coordination – who does what where when

23. Seasonal Rainfall Performance (Percent of Normal) MAM 2006 MAM 2007 MAM 2008 MA 2009 0.13M () OND 2006 OND 2007 OND 2008 1.3M () 0.7M () 3.2M () 2.7M () Pay closer attention to distribution

24. Non-Climatic Factors – Declining Terms of Trade • Steady decline in the goat prices in the pastoral • This is a consistent effect of the past successive rainfall failures, insecurity and occurrence of Peste Petite Des Ruminants (PPR). • Decreased food access manifesting through high malnutrition rates and reduced income. • Reduction of essential household expenditure • Negative coping strategies 0.13M () 6.4M () 1.3M () 0.7M () 3.2M ()

28. Response Recommendations Interventions to be prioritised now • Water trucking for humans if rains fail • Fodder distribution although start-up time is late (cost benefit) • Continue food aid although may need to scale up ration size or coverage – no mention of cash alternatives • Decision made and start up for fodder distribution • Decision and start up for emergency destocking • Develop forums - negotiate the use of conflict grazing land • Ensure poorer HHs can access water distributed by Water Ass. Long term interventions to compliment humanitarian response • Population planning • Long term National resource/rangeland improvement for marginalized areas • Developing alternative livelihoods for the pastoralists

29. Lessons Learnt from response analysis • National early warning information does not always reflect the current situation on ground • Regional trend data is useful • Response analysis should be regular • Opportunities of incorporating nut/watsan into livelihood calendar • Dry season response should be standard & integrated into normal response/programme design in drought prone areas • Each emergency response should be designed to compliment and maintain the good work of development programs • We need a clear long-term vision for pastoralists developed by all stakeholders • Improve food aid targeting - traditional sharing is common • Interventions need to incorporate community sensitization on conflict and population growth issues

30. Nutritional Opportunities • Incorporate food access within the normal calendars (all food groups) • Identify trends of seasonal disease prevalence & possible seasonal causes • Identify changes in these during dry season or drought scenarios • Incorporate appropriate and timely nutritional/health interventions within the response analysis • Address multi-sectoral underlying causes rather than focuses on one sector response strategies