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MGS 3100 Business Analysis Simulation Apr 21, 2016

MGS 3100 Business Analysis Simulation Apr 21, 2016. Simulation. Agenda. Problems. Simulation. What is a simulation? What does random mean? Benefits to simulation: Time can be compressed Simulations do not disrupt ongoing activities of the real system

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MGS 3100 Business Analysis Simulation Apr 21, 2016

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  1. MGS 3100Business Analysis SimulationApr 21, 2016

  2. Simulation Agenda Problems

  3. Simulation • What is a simulation? • What does random mean? • Benefits to simulation: • Time can be compressed • Simulations do not disrupt ongoing activities of the real system • Simulations can be used to analyze transient (infrequent) conditions • Developing a simulation model can lead to better understanding of the real system

  4. Types of Simulations

  5. Types of Simulations2-Value: Coin Toss • Create a column of random numbers from 0 to 1 • How would you assign a value to heads and tails? Heads Tails 0.0 .5 1.0

  6. Red Blue Yellow 0.0 .25 .67 1.0 Types of SimulationsMulti-Valued • Suppose we put 100 colored balls in a bag and randomly pull them out. Color # Probability Cumulative Red 25 25% .25 Blue 42 42% .67 Yellow 33 33% 1.0 =if(f7<=c$7,“Red”,if(f7<=c$8,“Blue”,“Yellow”))

  7. Types of SimulationsMulti-Valued • Using vlookup, where does Red start? • Grades example. • Equal distribution of grades A through F: =randbetween(50,100) F D C B A 50 60 70 80 90 100

  8. Agenda Problems Simulations

  9. Problem 1 • Jimmy prints a neighborhood newspaper. He has 10 subscribers. He also sells it to whoever comes by, from his front lawn on Friday afternoons. His mother has kept track of his demand (including requests made after he had sold out) for the past 100 weeks, and observed the following pattern: • The papers cost 30 cents to print and Jimmy sells them for 50 cents. Assume that he prints 20 copies a week. Mom makes him throw away unsold copies. Simulate his sales for a year and determine his earnings. • What if the # printed were adjusted?

  10. Problem 2 – Queuing System • Trucks arrive at a loading dock on average every 0.6 hours. It takes on average 0.5 hours to unload a truck. Assuming that arrival intervals and service times are exponentially distributed, simulate the queuing system to find the average waiting times and the average number of trucks in the queue/system. • Suppose you could install an new conveyor belt system to unload trucks faster, so that the average unloading time is cut to 0.25 hours. How much improvement will there be in the average waiting time and average number in queue/system? • Queuing systems consist of multiple inputs: • Number of servers, Number of Queues • Arrival rate/Arrival interval • Service rate/Service time • And multiple outputs: • Average wait time • Average number in queue / system

  11. Wait time in queue Service time Arrive in queue Service begins Service ends Wait time in system Problem 2 – Queuing System • SSSQ – simplest • SSMQ • MSSQ • MSMQ • Examples of each?

  12. Exponential Distribution • Take Random # • Take the negative logarithm of random #, and multiply by average desired • After looking at histogram, why can’t we break-down distribution to exact probabilities?

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